Lower-income countries and vulnerable groups pay the highest cost of weather-related shocks

The ongoing El Nino event is forecast to reach peak intensity in late 2023, bringing below-average rainfall to Southern Africa, western East Africa, Central America and northern South America on the one hand, and above-average rainfall with high risk of floods to eastern East Africa and Afghanistan, on the other hand. FEWS NET anticipates a total of 105-110 million people who will need food assistance through at least early 2024. (News #1, Online resource #1)

Several recent reports document the impacts of extreme weather events on agriculture production, growth, and displacement.

FAO estimates that about USD 3.8 trillion worth of crops and livestock production has been lost over the last 30 years due to disaster events, corresponding to an average loss of USD 123 billion per year or 5% of annual global agricultural GDP. The report reveals that disasters inflicted the highest relative losses on lower and lower middle-income countries, up to 15% of their total agricultural GDP. The report shows that, for every USD 1 invested in anticipatory action, rural families can gain up to USD 7 in benefits and avoided agricultural losses. It outlines three key priorities for action: i) improving data and information on the impacts of disaster; ii) developing multi-sectoral and multi-hazard disaster risk reduction approaches into policy and programming and iii) enhancing investments to build resilience in agriculture. (News #2, Publication #1)

The World Bank presents new estimates of the effects of dry episodes and droughts on GDP per capita growth rates. It shows that over the last half century, extreme “dry rainfall shocks” (i.e., shocks that are at least 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean) have increased by 233% in certain regions. 85% of people affected by droughts live in low- or middle-income countries. It documents that shocks are especially harmful to economic growth in developing countries. Compared to normal conditions, moderate droughts reduce growth in developing countries, on average, by about 0.39% points, while extreme drought reduces growth by about 0.85% point. It also shows that the legacy of droughts can ripple through generations. According to the authors of the paper, protecting “green water” i.e. moisture in soils around the root zone, is likely to often be the most cost-effective way of avoiding the adverse impacts of drought. (Publication #2, News #3 & #4)

UNICEF analyses the most common weather-related hazards that lead to the largest number of displacements: floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires. The report notes that there were 43.1 million internal displacements of children linked to weather-related disasters over a six-year period. Almost all – 95%- of recorded child displacements were driven by floods and storms. (Publication #3)

Acknowledging that the world’s most economically and socially vulnerable populations often bear the brunt of the impacts of disasters, a recently posted World Bank blog argues that inclusive early warning systems that empower everyone to respond effectively to emergencies are essential in mitigating disaster impacts and fostering sustainable development. (News #5)

Progress towards the 2030 Agenda is too slow

At the mid-point of the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development, FAO offers analyses and trends on eight food and agriculture-related SDG indicators. This edition includes, for the first time, an overall statistical progress assessment for SDG 2 that synthesizes information across all indicators aimed at achieving Zero Hunger. The latest estimates put the global hunger figure for 2022 between 691 million and 783 million people - implying that, since 2015, the increase in the number of undernourished people in the world has eroded practically all progress that had been made during the preceding decade. Indicators of malnutrition present a mixed picture. Although stunting has declined from 26.3% in 2012 to 22.3% in 2022, the rate of reduction is too low to meet the global target. In 2022, 6.8% of children under 5 years of age were affected by wasting, while the prevalence of overweight children, measured at 5.6%, has stagnated in the past decade, requiring greater efforts towards the 2030 target. (Publication #4)

As far as progress on children’s well-being is concerned, UNICEF examines the available data on the 48 child-related SDG indicators. Today, approximately one in three child-related SDG targets have either been met or are on track to be met. (Publication #5)

Focusing on poverty, a joint World Bank Group and UNICEF paper presents trends in child poverty from 2013 to 2022, based on international poverty lines. Estimates show a 13% reduction in the extreme child poverty rate (USD 2.15) between 2013 and 2022, from 383 to 333 million children – which is 30 million fewer than projected in the absence of COVID-19, representing 3 lost years of progress. (News #6 & #7, Publication #6)

To support the full spectrum of child rights, UNICEF outlines several components critical to driving improvements across sectors, in particular, i) investing in preparedness and resilience of communities; ii) investing in education; iii) investing in social protection as key to addressing child poverty and exclusion; iv) mainstreaming sustainability and climate and v) increasing attention to fragile settings where public institutions are not going to deliver. (Publication #5)

Transforming Food Systems to address the climate crisis and boost the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda

Several recent resources highlight food system transformation as an important lever both to address the current climate crisis, and to accelerate progress towards the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. 

For WFP, while the role of climate in driving up hunger is growing, solutions are available. Early-warning systems can help vulnerable communities prepare for weather shocks. Communities and local food systems can be protected by restoring water resources, digging irrigation canals and rebuilding natural barriers against climate extremes. (News #8)

In a joint submission, the CGIAR and several organisations recognize the importance of food systems transformation to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. They highlight the critical importance of channeling more climate finance to support sustainable food production practices, to reduce food loss and waste, accelerate the shift towards healthy and sustainable diets and nutrition, enhance sinks in production lands, and conserving and restoring natural ecosystems. (News #9)

A recently published research article uses a global food system model to explore the influence of consumer choice, climate-smart agro-industrial technologies, and food waste reductions for achieving net negative emissions for the year 2050. The results show that that the most promising technologies for achieving net negative emissions include hydrogen-powered fertilizer production, livestock feeds, organic and inorganic soil amendments, agroforestry, and sustainable seafood harvesting practices. On the consumer side, adopting flexitarian diets cannot achieve full decarbonisation of the food system but has the potential to increase the magnitude of net negative emissions when combined with technology scale-up.  (News #10, Publication #7) 

Ahead of the 2023 SDG Summit, the FAO and its partners presented the High Impact Initiative on Food Systems Transformation aimed at mobilizing commitments to ensure food security and healthy diets for all. A total of 12 High Impact Initiatives were selected by the United Nations to boost the progress towards the SDGs. (Online resource #2; News #11)

In the light of the difficult macroeconomic context (Publications #8,#9 & #10), the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition shows that many important changes to food systems can be implemented which are low cost, or even cost-neutral. The brief identifies five categories of action which can drive change or address important barriers to change: i) improving governance of food systems; ii) repurposing and leveraging governmental resources within and beyond food systems; iii) leveraging food industry and business resources; iv) harnessing the power of consumers to drive change and v) improving LMIC access to finance to catalyse transformation. (Publication #11)