DS Population > Pop Proj > Information on data EN REVAMP

Previous projection rounds 

Eurostat has already published results of 7 rounds of long-term population projections for the EU/EFTA countries. Work on this began in 2000 based on a mandate from the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN). 

In addition, Eurostat has produced a short-term update of the projected population at national level for 31 countries: all 27 EU members and the 4 EFTA countries, covering the time period 2022 to 2032. This update of the baseline scenario of EUROPOP2019 and two sensitivity tests taking into account the influx of refugees from Ukraine were published in September 2022.

The next long-term population projections release is foreseen for 2026.

Latest available population projections

The latest Eurostat population projections (EUROPOP 2023) have been produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 EU Member States and 4 EFTA countries, covering the time period from 2022 to 2100.

Published population projections from this current round are labelled in relation to the year in which they are published, and no longer refer to the latest reference year as was the case in previous rounds (e.g. EUROPOP 2019).   

Using data for population on 1 January 2022 as a starting point, Eurostat published the baseline population projections at national level in March 2023.  Several sensitivity tests were produced by applying different changes to the assumption levels which were used to produce the baseline projections at national levels. 

Data quality

For each round, the demographic projections are produced based on a methodology applied commonly for all countries. 

The assumptions underpinning any long-run projection are faced with the inherent uncertainty of the assumptions. Thus, it is essential to carry out a number of sensitivity tests around the baseline scenario. This is done to quantify the responsiveness of the projections to changes in the underlying key demographic assumptions.