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The report features research linked to mid-century strategies on shaping long-term baselines with CGE models. Different articles deal with macroeconomic assumptions (including GDP growth projections), long-term consumption trends, key energy and emission trends, and model linking (e.g. CGE models with more detailed energy models). Researchers from the Netherlands and the UK have constructed a metamodel of climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets.

With the caveat that it is too early for concrete research results, there is already some evidence that modellers are working to integrate the impacts of the crisis in their work. While there are no published studies yet, half of the respondents in the August CCMI survey have indicated that they are working on integrating the impact of Covid-19 in economic recovery plans and current policy scenarios. One of the research streams of the IAMC meeting in December 2020 is dedicated to assessment of the impact of the pandemic and the crisis recovery packages.

The Commission launched on 3 July the first call for proposals under the Innovation Fund, one of the world’s largest programmes for the demonstration of innovative low-carbon technologies, financed by revenues from the auction of emission allowances from the EU’s Emissions Trading System.

On 7 July, the European Commission’s Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans, the Canadian Minister for Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkinson and China’s Minister for Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu co-chaired the 4th session of the Ministerial on Climate Action (MoCA).

The Commission adopted in July the rules on the operation of the Modernisation Fund, an EU solidarity funding mechanism to support 10 EU Member States in their transition to climate neutrality by helping to modernise their energy systems and improve energy efficiency.

The European Commission today presented its plan to reduce net EU greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This level of ambition for the next decade will put the EU on a balanced pathway to reaching climate neutrality by 2050.

Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans' speech on the European Green Deal as a growth strategy at the Bruegel Annual Meeting on 1 September.

Opening remarks by Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans at the European Parliament Plenary Session on the European Climate Law on 6 October 2020.

With the caveat that it is too early for concrete research results, there is already some evidence that modellers are working to integrate the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis in their work. Researchers in the UK propose a new approach to estimating the reduction of global CO2 emissions during the crisis by compiling a confinement index of government lockdown policies and reduction of human activities. Scientists measuring the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere estimate that the effect of confinement policies on CO2 emissions will be relatively slow and will not drastically stop the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Finally, a number of researchers form the Union of Concerned scientists issued a warning about the need to address compound climate risks in the Covid-19 and future pandemics.

Two recent studies assess the impact of national climate policies on reaching the Paris Agreement targets – one study does that for the seven highest CO2 global emitters and one study focuses on China. Another study from researchers in China examines the climate and health benefits of phasing out iron and steel production. The authors of the study have compiled a new database of steel plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The section also presents a new integrated assessment model developed at provincial level in South-Korea. Finally, a recent article examines the effects of a potential international emissions trading system in China, South-Korea and Japan.

A study from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre examines the economic value of health-related air quality benefits of climate policy. And – also from the JRC – a new dataset of bridging matrices allows for better combining micro-level consumption and nation-level production statistics in 30 European countries.

Two key themes emerge from the developments in this section: the need to integrate models of the transport and energy systems and the need to better represent human behaviour in transport models. Two review articles asses the tools used to model human behaviour in mobility systems, one from the USA and another from Denmark. Another study from Denmark examines the long-term decarbonisation of the transport sector in Denmark. And finally, an article from the JRC analyses the policy options for promoting fuel cell electric vehicles in the EU to drive the reduction of CO2 emissions in the transport sector.

An article from researchers in Italy estimates the impact of climate change on labour supply and nutrition in Uganda in the 21st century. A study from Austria uses element limitation factors methodology to examine the sustainability of energy sources until 2050.

Climate change impacts are here and now. Global and European temperatures have repeatedly broken long-term records in recent years, and the impacts on people, planet and prosperity are already pervasive. The recovery from the current crisis will be an opportunity to make our society more resilient.

As part of the European Green Deal, the Commission will put forward a comprehensive plan to increase the EU’s 2030 climate target in September this year. The plan will propose to increase the EU’s current 2030 target of at least -40% greenhouse gas emission reductions to at least -50% and towards -55%, compared to 1990 emission levels.

The European Green Deal sets out how to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Alongside government policies and regulation, there is a role to play for citizens, communities and organisations in all sectors of our society and economy.

Researchers at IIASA have developed a new IAM scenario logic that improves the representation of Paris Agreement temperature targets and climate response uncertainties to make explicit the intergeneration bias of current IAM models, in most of which the burden is carried by future generations. Another study examines decarbonisation pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia, and concludes that a radical transformation of the energy system is needed to meet the “well below” 2°C target.

Two recent studies from PBL Netherlands provide a 2019 update to greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries and a meta-analysis on international shipping and aviation emissions projections from Integrated Assessment Models. The 2019 Global Energy and Climate Outlook from the Joint Research Centre examines the role of electrification in the low-carbon transition. An article in the Journal of Transport and Health evaluates the co-benefits of air quality and health improvement in China. And lastly, researchers in Australia are developing a new tool to help policymakers build net-zero emissions scenarios for Australian industries at the national and state/territory levels.