Recent modelling developments and studies
date: 16/09/2020
- The Journal of Global Economic Analysis has issued a special issue on shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The project aims to improve the representation of key trends (overall economic activity, energy, consumption) in CGE models. Improved baselines will be helpful to inform mid- and long-term strategies for climate policy. The special issue is based on research conducted in part for the CGE Baseline model comparison project at Purdue University. The special issue presents an overview of state-of-the art research, many of the topics are relevant to modellers engaging in long-term scenario analysis with economic models. In particular, papers on macroeconomic assumptions (including GDP growth projections), long-term consumption trends, key energy and emission trends, and model linking (e.g. CGE models with more detailed energy models) might be of relevance to the research community working on climate change economics. The special issue is available online with open access.
- Researchers from the Netherlands and the UK have constructed a metamodel of climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets. The study published in Nature Climate Change earlier this year provides median estimates for the cumulative abatement costs of meeting the 2oC and 1.5oC targets to range between 15 and 30 trillion USD. However, uncertainty related to climate systems dominates when warming levels are high while uncertainty in emissions reductions costs dominates for more stringent targets such as the Paris Agreement targets. This results in estimates that vary over a wide range, e.g. 10–100 trillion USD for the 1.5 °C target. The article is available online.