Cambridge Econometrics has published initial results from economic modelling of the coronavirus pandemic. Using their E3ME macroeconomic model they estimate that the pandemic will reduce global GDP by 5% below the baseline scenario in 2020 and 2021. The model contains two scenarios, which differ in terms of the level of government response to the pandemic – one in which governments do not intervene fiscally and another in which they do. To build their assumptions, the authors use information from the 2003 SARS virus outbreak and the Chinese government to the Covid-19 reaction so far. The model estimates sectoral effects as well as macroeconomic predictions for the global recovery. More information about the modelling assumptions and the complexities of modelling the Covid-19 pandemic is available here.