■      Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have developed a new IAM scenario logic that improves the representation of Paris Agreement temperature targets and climate response uncertainties. To understand how global warming can be kept below 2°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its GHG emissions over the long term (2100). However, focusing on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to compensate for their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. These pathways contain an implicit intergenerational bias – the burden is carried by future generations, and most likely by vulnerable populations. The authors propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming. The research article published in Nature is available here, and a blog post in the Carbon Brief describes the policy importance of the novel modelling development.

■      A recent article in the journal Climate Policy examines potential decarbonisation pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with the “well below” 2^°C target. The authors employ the global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to model mid-century decarbonisation strategies for countries in Asia to 2050. The key finding from the study is that a radical transformation of the energy system is required to meet the emissions target and that low-carbon investments may need to double or triple. The need for such investment could be met through green finance and the mobilisation of private capital. The low-carbon investment would reduce the investment needs for achieving the sustainable development goal (SDG) target for air quality, and slightly increase the investment needs for achieving the clean water and food security targets.