■      The NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have issued a 2019 update to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries. The report provides an overview of projected GHG emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030 (including the EU), taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 12 out of the 25 countries and regions are not on track to achieve their NDC targets. The report updates the 2018 report, and for the first time presents additional key indicators in addition to GHG emissions. Some of these new indicators include GHG emissions per GDP, share of renewables in total primary energy supply (TRES), share of renewables in total electricity generation, TRES per capita, and TRES per GDP.

■      Another team of researchers at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has published a new meta-analysis on international shipping and aviation emissions projections from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Emissions from international transport are underrepresented in these models. This new report is based on a survey and interviews with IAM teams, and a comparative analysis of published emissions projects for the transport sector from IAMs and non-IAM models. The key finding is that the reason for underrepresentation of the international shipping and aviation sectors is the lack of easily available data. The report makes a few recommendations for improving the representation of these sectors in IAMs: distinguishing between aviation and shipping emissions; distinguishing between national and international emissions for the two sectors; incorporating fuels, efficiency standards, and energy or transport demand factors improving the use of soft-linked sectoral models.

■      The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission has published the 2019 Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO). This edition of the outlook focuses on the role of electrification for the low-carbon transition. It provides in-depth analysis of electrification including a sensitivity analysis to capture multiple pathways to 2^°C, which are differentiated in the contribution of low carbon electricity. The report covers large sectors (industry, transport, buildings and power generation), and has a regional focus on the EU and China and a sectoral focus on road transport electrification. In the CGE model, the car manufacturing sector was split into conventional vehicles and electric vehicles to analyse the effects of EV uptake on employment. The key finding is that well below 2^°C can be achieved by a simultaneous transformation of a number of elements of the energy system (decarbonising power generation, shifting energy demand towards electricity and low-carbon synthetic fuels, increasing energy efficiency), and that meeting the target is possible at relatively low cost for the overall economy. The 2019 and previous editions of the GECO are available here.

■      Researchers at Peking University have published an article in the Journal of Transport and Health evaluating the co-benefits of road transportation in China. The study integrates an energy economy model (IMED/CGE), an air pollutant emission model (GAINS), and a health impact assessment model (IMED/HEL) to analyse the benefits of air quality and health improvement that could be achieved in China under 2^°C target and following mitigation policies focusing on road transport. This study better evaluates the costs and benefits of sectoral mitigation strategies and distinguishes between the contribution of mitigation actions and air pollution control actions. The results show that achieving the 2°C climate target could significantly reduce PM_2.5 pollution and the health and economic losses in China, in which the road transportation sector would play an important role. The study also finds that various policy choices in the road transport sector (e.g. at national and provincial level) for achieving the 2°C climate target have the potential to contribute to emission reductions in the transportation sector. Some of these policies are improving road transport infrastructure, developing electric vehicle transport via subsidies, and an upgrade of the emissions standards and fuel quality. More importantly, the co-benefits of climate actions could already be very significant compared with that of air-pollution control strategy.

■      Researchers at the Crawford School of Public Policy at Australian National University are developing net-zero emissions scenarios for Australian industries at the national and state/territory levels. The model brings together industry-level economic output data and emissions data. The researchers use existing studies of net-zero emissions trajectories in Australia to define the scenarios. The model will support development of national and state/territory 2050 strategies in Australia, and the project team works in close engagement with national and state governments. It is a simple MS Excel-based model (based on the Kaya identity) that can be used by policy advisors, bureaucrats and decision-makers to support formulation of long-term climate strategies. A web-based front-end will be produced at a later date for broader public engagement. The work is in progress.