Statistics Explained

Population statistics at regional level



Data extracted in April 2023.

Planned article update: September 2024.

Highlights

In 2022, the French outermost region of Mayotte had the highest young-age dependency ratio in the EU, while the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega had the highest old-age dependency ratio.

In 2022, some of the NUTS level 3 regions in the EU with the lowest median ages were capital regions or regions within close proximity of a capital – the lowest median age was recorded in the Danish capital region of Byen København (33.9 years).

Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3)

Demographic developments in the European Union (EU) are far from uniform, with considerable variations both between and within individual EU Member States. One factor that is often key to explaining these divergences is the mobility of young people, reflecting – among other issues – their search for education and/or job opportunities. The increased mobility of younger generations can result in profound changes to demographic structures in particular geographic areas, with some regions thriving due to an inflow of younger more-qualified generations, whereas others lag behind and progressively age due to the departure of younger cohorts. The European Commission has named 2023 as the European Year of Skills. It is designed to give fresh impetus to two of the EU’s 2030 social targets, namely, that at least 60 % of adults should be in training every year, and that at least 78 % should be in employment.

Policymakers have identified that skills need to be nurtured, especially in those regions that suffer from: a shrinking labour force; a low share of persons with tertiary educational attainment; and/or the departure of young people (to other regions/countries). These regions often face a range of structural challenges such as inefficiencies in labour market, education, training and adult learning systems, or low levels of access to services, innovation performance, public governance or business development. In response, the European Commission presented a Communication on Harnessing talent in Europe’s regions (COM(2023) 32 final) that contributes towards the European Year of Skills. It offers a range of solutions to support regions most affected by the demographic transition through a range of pilot schemes that are designed to address, among other issues: the development of talent; the challenges of developing, retaining and attracting skilled workers; local market needs; innovation and opportunities for highly-skilled jobs.

This demographic transition has an impact on population structures across EU regions, resulting in (among other consequences):

  • major urban areas which are often characterised by relatively youthful populations, large numbers of people living alone, high costs of living, diverse educational opportunities and buoyant labour markets;
  • towns and cities in former industrial heartlands that have been left behind economically, characterised by relatively high levels of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion;
  • commuter belts/suburban areas which are often inhabited by families;
  • coastal and countryside locations, some of which may be viewed as retirement locations for relatively affluent pensioners;
  • other rural and remote regions which may exhibit declining population numbers and a relatively elderly population structure, while being characterised by narrow labour market opportunities and relatively poor access to a range of services.

Together with one off shocks, such as the impact of the COVID-19 crisis or Russian military aggression against Ukraine, population events (births, deaths and migratory flows) shape demographic changes over time. Eurostat’s latest population projections suggest the EU’s population will increase through to 2026 when it will peak at 453.3 million, after which it is projected to gradually decrease to 447.9 million by 2050, before falling at a more rapid pace through to the end of the century (419.5 million in 2100). The EU’s labour force is projected to retract at an even faster pace than population, as older people (aged 80 years or over) account for a growing share of the population.

The infographic above gives an idea of the scale of the challenge ahead, as the population pyramids highlight the considerable difference in age structures between NUTS level 3 regions in the EU. In 2022, the outermost region of Mayotte (France) had the highest young-age dependency ratio in the EU, while the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega had the highest old-age dependency ratio.

Population highlights

On 1 January 2022, there were 446.7 million persons living in the EU, this was 584 600 fewer than two years before. During the course of 2022, the EU’s population started to increase once again, reflecting a mass-influx of displaced persons linked to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Prior to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the rate at which the EU’s population was growing had slowed during a period of several years. With the onset of the pandemic, mortality rates increased (especially among elderly populations), resulting in a fall in overall population numbers during 2020 and 2021. Indeed, this was the first time that the EU’s population had declined since the start of the time series in 1960. The COVID-19 crisis changed the way that people lived, studied, worked and filled their leisure time. Although deaths were concentrated among older people, the pandemic was also a difficult period for many younger people: education was interrupted and increasing isolation led to sharp increases in cases of depression and anxiety.

Across the EU, people tend to live in relatively densely-populated cities, towns and suburbs, while the vast majority of the EU’s land area is more sparsely populated. There are 242 NUTS level 2 regions and 1 166 NUTS level 3 regions across the EU from which a detailed typology for analysing demographic developments can be established. Note that some of the differences covered below reflect the criteria used to determine the administrative boundaries that delineate each of these regions.

Full article

Population structure

The median age may be used to analyse population ageing; changes in this age give an idea of the pace at which the EU’s population structure is developing. During the last two decades, the EU’s median age increased by almost six years, up from 38.7 years in 2002 to 44.4 years in 2022.

The distribution of median ages among NUTS level 3 regions exhibited a certain degree of skewness. In 2022, there were 760 regions that had median ages equal to or above the EU average, while there were 406 regions with a median age below the EU average. At the top end of the distribution there were four regions with median ages higher than 55.0 years (see Figure 1):

  • the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega (56.2 years);
  • Arr. Veurne in north-west Belgium (55.8 years);
  • the mountainous region of Evrytania in central Greece (55.6 years); and
  • the eastern German region of Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt (55.4 years).

More generally, relatively high median ages – of at least 50.0 years – were principally concentrated in eastern regions of Germany as well as central and northern regions of Italy; there were also several regions in Greece, Spain, France and Portugal that had relatively high median ages. Many of these regions were relatively rural, characterised by low levels of disposable income and/or relatively high unemployment rates. As such, their high median ages likely reflect, at least to some degree, younger people having left – for example to regions with larger and more affluent cities, or venturing abroad – in search of educational opportunities, higher wages and/or better job opportunities.

Some of the lowest median ages were recorded in and around capital cities

Capital regions often exert a considerable pull on inter-regional and international migrants, as they tend to provide a diverse range of educational and employment opportunities. This process can lead to a shift in population structures, with younger people accounting for a growing share of a region’s population; over time, this pattern may self-reinforce, insofar as populations with younger age structures are more likely to have relatively high birth rates.

In 2022, several of the NUTS level 3 regions in the EU with the lowest median ages were capital regions or regions within close proximity of a capital – those of Denmark, France (the suburbs of Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-d’Oise), Belgium and Ireland. Among these, the lowest median age was recorded in the Danish capital region of Byen København (33.9 years). There were, however, a number of other regions with low median ages, including:

  • the French outermost regions of Mayotte (18.1 years) and Guyane (26.2 years) and the Spanish autonomous region of Melilla (34.8 years) – the first two of these were characterised by particularly high fertility rates;
  • two cities with relatively large student populations – Heidelberg, Stadtkreis in Germany and Gdański in Poland (2021 data).
Figure 1: Median age of the population, 1 January 2022
(years, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind)

The median age of females was higher than that of males in every region of the EU

Figure 2 shows the median age of regional populations by sex; note these data are presented at a more aggregated level of geographical detail – for NUTS level 2 regions. The top half of the figure shows those EU regions with the highest median ages among females in 2022. They were principally located in eastern Germany or Italy, but also included Principado de Asturias in north-west Spain and Severozapaden in north-west Bulgaria. A similar pattern was observed in the bottom half of the figure, as the highest median ages for males were recorded across several regions of eastern Germany, Italy and north-west Spain. Many of these regions with high median ages were characterised by relatively low fertility rates and rural depopulation. In some cases, population ageing was reinforced as coastlines provided popular retirement destinations (thereby attracting additional older people).

A comparison between the sexes reveals that in 2022 the median age of females was consistently higher than that for males across every NUTS level 2 region. This pattern may be linked to higher levels of female life expectancy (see the section on mortality for more details), which may in turn be driven by factors such as lifestyle choices, working conditions, socioeconomic conditions and healthcare. The largest gender gaps were observed in the Baltic Member States. The median age of females in Latvia was 47.7 years, some 7.7 years higher than the corresponding figure for males. The next highest gender gap was recorded in the Lithuanian region of Vidurio ir vakarų Lietuvos regionas (7.2 years), followed by Estonia (6.1 years). At the other end of the range, there were much smaller differences between the sexes in the Spanish autonomous region of Ciudad de Ceuta (where the median age of females was 0.3 years higher than that for males), in Luxembourg (a difference of 1.0 years) and in the Spanish island region of Canarias (a difference of 1.1 years).

Figure 2: Median age of the population by sex, 1 January 2022
(years, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind)

The Danish capital region of Byen København had the lowest age dependency ratio in the EU

Medical progress and changes in lifestyles and working conditions have pushed back the frontiers of old age. Ageing is relative: a 65 year-old person may feel/consider themselves relatively young and active when comparing themselves to their ancestors. However, the EU’s population is becoming progressively older, driven by relatively low fertility rates, higher levels of life expectancy, and the continued ageing of the ‘baby boomer’ generation. As a result, EU Member States face a range of challenges that have implications, among others, for public finances, social security systems, pensions, and the provision of health and care services. These challenges may be particularly acute in regions/countries characterised by large numbers of very old people, as they may lose their autonomy, requiring higher levels of care and/or medical attention.

In 2022, more than one fifth (21.1 %) of the EU’s population was composed of people aged 65 or more. According to Eurostat’s latest population projections, the relative share of this group will likely increase during the remainder of this century, such that people aged 65 or more will account for almost one third (32.5 %) of the EU’s population by 2100. During the same period, the share of working age people – defined here as those aged 20–64 – is projected to fall from 58.7 % to less than half (49.7 %). The latest projections also suggest that there will be a modest reduction in the share of younger people (aged less than 20), down from 20.2 % of the total population to 17.8 % by 2100.

Age dependency ratios measure the size of the dependent population relative to the working age population. Figure 3 shows a ratio based on the number of dependents (the sum of young people aged less than 20 and older people aged 65 or more) relative to the number of people of working age (those aged 20–64 years). In 2022, the EU’s age dependency ratio was 70.4 %. Across NUTS level 3 regions, the lowest age dependency ratio was recorded in the Danish capital region of Byen København, at 45.9 %. There were two other regions that recorded ratios below 50.0 % – indicating that their populations had at least two people of working age for each dependent – the Spanish island regions of Eivissa y Formentera (in Illes Balears) and Fuerteventura (in Canarias). At the other end of the range, the French regions of Mayotte (129.5 %) and Nièvre (100.2 %) recorded age dependency ratios of more than 100.0 %. In other words, both these regions had more dependents than people of working age: in the former a majority of the dependents were aged less than 20, whereas in the latter they were aged 65 or more.

Looking in more detail, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio was 36.0 % in 2022, which was slightly higher than the young age dependency ratio of 34.4 %. The highest old age dependency ratios among NUTS level 3 regions were observed in the three regions that had the highest median ages: Alto Tâmega (Portugal; 68.5 %), Arr. Veurne (Belgium; 67.8 %) and Evrytania (Greece; 65.0 %). Leaving aside the atypical French outermost regions of Mayotte (123.4 %) and Guyane (78.9 %), the highest young age dependency ratio was recorded in Midland (Ireland; 51.4 %). Several other regions in Ireland and France had quite high young age dependency ratios, reflecting their above average fertility rates (see below for more information).

Figure 3: Age dependency ratio, 1 January 2022
(%, people aged < 20 years and people aged ≥ 65 years / people aged 20–64 years, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind)

During 2021, there were almost half a million more deaths than births across the EU

Many of the demographic changes witnessed during 2021 may be attributed to direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. Between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2022, the EU’s population fell by 472 200 people. This reduction could be wholly attributed to natural population changes (in other words, more deaths than births), as net migration plus adjustment remained positive (in other words, more people entered the EU rather than left it).

The lowest crude rates of natural population change were observed in Bulgaria

Map 1 presents the crude rate of natural population change for NUTS level 3 regions. In 2021, this rate was -2.7 per 1 000 persons for the EU. A clear majority of the 1 164 regions for which data are available had a negative rate of natural population change. This was the case in 980 regions (84.2 % of the total; they are shaded using three different golden tones in the map), while a positive rate of change was recorded in 173 regions (14.9 %); there were 11 regions (0.9 %) with no change – in other words, they had the same number of births as deaths (these latter two groups are shaded using three different teal tones).

In 2021, a negative crude rate of natural population change was observed for every NUTS level 3 region of Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Portugal and Romania. There were several other EU Member States where almost every region recorded a negative rate for this indicator, the only exceptions being:

  • the capital region of Hlavní město Praha in Czechia;
  • Bolzano-Bozen in northern Italy;
  • Poznański and Gdański in Poland;
  • the capital region of Osrednjeslovenska in Slovenia;
  • the capital region of Bratislavský kraj and Prešovský kraj in Slovakia.

Looking in more detail, the lowest crude rate of natural population change was recorded in the north-western Bulgarian region of Vidin, at -25.7 per 1 000 persons. In fact, the 10 lowest regional rates in 2021 were all concentrated in Bulgaria, with Montana, Kyustendil, Gabrovo, Pernik and Vratsa also recording rates that were below -20.0 per 1 000 persons.

By contrast, every region of Ireland had a positive crude rate of natural population change in 2021, while a relatively high number of regions located in (predominantly northern and eastern) Belgium, France, the Netherlands, (predominantly western) Austria, and Sweden also recorded positive rates; this was also the case in Luxembourg and Cyprus (which have only one region each). Among the nine NUTS level 3 regions in the EU where the crude rate of natural population change was at least 7.0 per 1 000 persons (as shown by the darkest shade of teal in Map 1), there were:

  • three outermost regions in France – Mayotte, Guyane and La Réunion;
  • four regions located within close proximity of the French capital region of Paris – Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-d’Oise, Essonne and Val-de-Marne;
  • the Danish capital region of Byen København;
  • Mid-East in Ireland, which surrounds the capital region of Dublin.

The highest crude rate of natural population change was recorded in Mayotte (32.2 per 1 000 persons), while Guyane (23.1 per 1 000 persons) was the only other region to report a double-digit rate of change.

Based on absolute figures in 2021, the largest increases in natural population change were recorded in:

  • the French capital region of Paris (up 11 200 persons) and one of its neighbouring regions, Seine-Saint-Denis (up 15 800 persons);
  • the Swedish capital region of Stockholm (up 13 400 persons).

The biggest absolute falls due to natural population change were recorded in Italy. In 2021, the population of Milano fell by 10 500 persons, with even larger decreases observed in Torino (down 14 300 persons) and the capital region of Roma (down 18 200 persons).

Map 1: Crude rate of natural population change, 2021
(‰ persons, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_gind3) and (demo_gind)

Fertility

Having fallen for four consecutive years (with a particularly large contraction in 2020 – the first year of the COVID-19 crisis), the number of live births across the EU increased at a modest pace in 2021, rising 0.4 % to 4.09 million.

The vast majority of regions in the EU had a total fertility rate that was below the natural replacement rate

The total fertility rate is defined as the mean number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. In 2021, the EU’s total fertility rate was 1.53 live births per woman. This was considerably below the natural replacement rate – the average number of live births per woman required to keep the population size constant in the absence of migration in developed world economies (around 2.10 children per woman).

The regional distribution was somewhat skewed insofar as there were 448 NUTS level 3 regions (or 38.4 % of all regions) where the total fertility rate was below the EU average, while there were 718 regions (or 61.6 % of all regions) where the rate was equal to or higher than the EU average.

Figure 4 shows the distribution of total fertility rates for each of the EU Member States in 2021. There were 12 NUTS level 3 regions that had total fertility rates that were above the natural replacement rate of 2.10 live births per woman. The highest rates were recorded in the French outermost regions of Mayotte (4.62 live births per woman) and Guyane (3.67 live births per woman). Half (5 out of 10) of the remaining regions with relatively high rates were located in France (either outermost regions or regions within close proximity of the capital), three were in Romania, while there were also single regions from each of Bulgaria and Germany.

At the other end of the range, there were 14 NUTS level 3 regions where the total fertility rate was less than 1.00 live births per woman in 2021. They were concentrated in southern EU Member States: with 10 located in Spain (in the north-west, Canarias or Illes Balears), three in Italy (all in Sardegna) and the central Greek region of Evrytania.

In 2021 , the widest ranges for total fertility rates among EU Member States – the difference between the region with the highest rate and the region with the lowest rate – were observed in France, Romania and Germany.

Figure 4: Total fertility rate, 2021
(average number of live births per woman, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find)

Women in the EU are giving birth later in life

One factor which may explain the relatively low levels of fertility in the EU is the growing proportion of women giving birth later in life. This may be linked, among other factors, to: higher female participation rates in further education and/or more women choosing to establish a career before starting a family; lower levels of job security (for example, in precarious employment); the increasing cost of raising children and of housing; and a decline in the number of traditional family units (less people getting married, more same sex couples, and more people getting divorced). By contrast, policy initiatives reconciling work and childbearing within the broader context of societal values may, to some extent, sustain fertility rates. Examples include paid family leave (for both women and men) or the provision of childcare from an early age.

During the last two decades – between 2001 and 2021 – the mean age in the EU of women at childbirth gradually increased from 29.0 to 31.1 years. The regional distribution was relatively normal, insofar as there were 605 NUTS level 3 regions out of 1 166 for which data are available (or 51.9 %) where the mean age of women at childbirth was below the EU average. At the bottom end of the distribution, there were 44 regions where the mean age was less than 28.0 years: they were primarily located in Bulgaria or Romania, with only three exceptions – Košický kraj and Prešovský kraj in Slovakia, and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén in Hungary. The lowest mean age of women at childbirth was recorded in the eastern Bulgarian region of Sliven (24.9 years).

At the top end of the distribution, it was common to find capital regions and predominantly urban regions with some of the highest mean ages of women at childbirth. This may reflect a variety of cultural, socioeconomic and personal factors, including:

  • better education/job opportunities leading some women to prioritise their education and/or career development;
  • better access to healthcare in these regions, increasing the likelihood of a successful pregnancy for older women;
  • more progressive social norms, giving women more freedom to decide when they have children;
  • a wide range of recreational activities, cultural events and social networks, which some women may choose to enjoy before they give consideration to starting a family.

In 2021, there were 46 NUTS level 3 regions across the EU where the mean age of women at childbirth was at least 33.0 years. The vast majority of these regions were located in Spain (14 regions), Germany (12 regions) or Italy (10 regions), while the capital regions of Greece, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy were all present within this group. The highest values were recorded in the capital regions of Voreios Tomeas Athinon (Greece; 34.7 years) and Paris (France; 34.2 years).

Map 2: Mean age of mothers at childbirth, 2021
(years, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find)

More than one quarter of all live births in the EU were to women aged 35 years or more

As noted above, the mean age of women at childbirth has been gradually increasing in the EU, as a growing number of women have children later in life. Prenatal care is generally accessible and encouraged for all pregnant women in the EU, regardless of their age. However, women aged 35 years or more may receive additional medical support as they have a higher risk of certain complications during pregnancy. Map 3 shows, for 2021, the proportion of live births to mothers aged 35 years or more; on average, more than one quarter (26.9 %) of all live births in the EU were to women aged 35 years or more.

In 2021, there were 26 NUTS level 2 regions where at least 37.5 % of all live births were to women aged 35 years or more (they are shown in the darkest shade of blue in Map 3). This group included every region of Ireland, 14 out of 19 regions in Spain, as well as seven regions in central and southern Italy. Looking in more detail, almost half (47.9 %) of the live births in the north-western Spanish region of Galicia were to women aged 35 years or more. There were five other regions in Spain – Cantabria, Principado de Asturias, the capital region of Comunidad de Madrid, Castilla y León and País Vasco – where more than 45.0 % of all live births were to women aged 35 years or more.

Map 3 also identifies a group of 16 regions where the share of live births to women aged 35 years or more was lower than 17.5 % in 2021 (they are presented in a yellow shade). Within this group, there were seven regions located in Romania, including Sud-Muntenia that had the lowest regional share, at 12.7 %. The remainder of this group was composed of four regions from Bulgaria, two regions from Hungary, as well as single regions from each of Belgium, Denmark and Slovakia.

Map 3: Live births to mothers aged ≥ 35 years, 2021
(% share of all live births, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_fagec)

Mortality

During the last two centuries, life expectancy in the EU rose at a relatively consistent pace with a few exceptional periods (such as during war). Increased longevity can be attributed to a range of factors including significant advances in medical treatment and care, changes in living and environmental conditions, changes in working conditions/occupations, and/or lifestyle changes.

There are a range of potential drivers that may impact on inter-regional differences in life expectancy, including:

  • proximity to healthcare services – capital regions tend to have a greater number and variety of healthcare facilities compared with rural regions;
  • the prosperity of a region – life expectancy is generally higher in regions characterised by a higher standard of living and lower in regions characterised by poverty and social deprivation;
  • lifestyle and cultural differences – for example, the type of work that predominates in a region, the typical diet of a region, or the incidence of smoking and alcohol consumption;
  • climatic conditions – people living in warm or temperate and relatively dry climates tend to live longer lives than those living in regions that experience more extreme weather conditions.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy at birth in the EU had been 81.3 years in 2019. However, there was a fall of 0.9 years in 2020, followed by an additional fall of 0.3 years in 2021. The impact of the pandemic was unevenly spread in both geographic and socioeconomic terms, as successive waves of the virus impacted different EU Member States and their regions. Among other reasons, some of these differences may be linked to:

  • the ability of regional health care facilities to cope with a sudden rush of cases and differential access to well-equipped hospitals;
  • the health status of regional populations, such as the incidence and/or severity of pre-existing health conditions (particularly those affecting the respiratory system);
  • regional population structures, for example the number and share of elderly people, the proportion of elderly persons living in care homes, the share of disadvantaged and minority ethnic groups in regional populations;
  • a variety of other socioeconomic factors, such as the average number of people living alone and within extended families, or the share of people able to work from home during the pandemic;
  • the timing, speed and severity of national and regional government measures that were put in place to slow the spread and mitigate the impact of the virus, coupled with public awareness, vigilance and adherence to rules/restrictions.

A newborn female in Latvia could expect to live an additional 9.8 years compared with a newborn male

Maps 4 and 5 show female and male life expectancy at birth; note both maps use the same class boundaries in their legends to aid comparison. In 2021, the EU’s overall life expectancy at birth was 80.1 years. Female life expectancy (82.9 years) was 5.7 years higher than male life expectancy (77.2 years). A gender gap in favour of females was observed for each of the 242 NUTS level 2 regions for which data are available. Some of the largest gender gaps were recorded in the Baltic Member States, as well as several Polish and Romanian regions, while differences between the sexes were generally much smaller in Danish, Dutch and Swedish regions. The smallest gender gap was observed in the French outermost region of Mayotte (where female life expectancy was 2.3 years higher than that for males), while the largest gender gap was recorded in Latvia (where female life expectancy was 9.8 years higher).

In 2021, some of the highest life expectancies at birth for women were located across Spain and France. The highest level was in the Spanish capital region of Comunidad de Madrid (88.2 years), followed by five other regions in Spain – Comunidad Foral de Navarra (87.6 years), Castilla y León (87.5 years), Cantabria (87.1 years), Galicia and País Vasco (both 87.0 years). Outside of Spain, the next highest levels of female life expectancy at birth were reported for Rhône-Alpes in France and Provincia Autonoma di Trento in Italy (both 86.7 years).

The highest levels of male life expectancy at birth were generally recorded across several regions of Spain, (northern and central) Italy and (southern and central) Sweden. However, the highest figure across EU regions in 2021 was recorded in the autonomous island region of Åland (Finland), at 82.8 years. The next highest levels were reported for two Spanish regions, Comunidad de Madrid (82.2 years) and Comunidad Foral de Navarra (81.9), and for two Swedish regions, Stockholm (82.1 years) and Småland med öarna (81.9 years).

Map 4: Life expectancy at birth for females, 2021
(years, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mlifexp) and (demo_mlexpec)
Map 5: Life expectancy at birth for males, 2021
(years, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mlifexp) and (demo_mlexpec)

Infant mortality rates

Within the EU, one of the principal drivers behind increases in life expectancy is the marked reduction in infant mortality rates. The EU’s infant mortality rate is low by international standards, reflecting well-established healthcare systems, access to quality prenatal and neonatal care, and comprehensive social support. In 1970, the EU’s infant mortality rate was 26.5 deaths per 1 000 live births. By 2010, it had fallen to 4.0 deaths per 1 000 live births and a decade later it continued to fall (albeit at a slower pace). Nevertheless, in 2020 there were 13 250 children in the EU that died before reaching their first birthday; the infant mortality rate was 3.3 deaths per 1 000 live births.

Regional data for most NUTS level 2 regions are available for 2021 (the latest information for Estonia and Italy refers to 2020). Figure 4 shows the distribution of infant mortality rates in each EU Member State, as well as the name of the region with the highest infant mortality rate. There were 20 regions across the EU – most of which were relatively rural or remote and/or regions characterised by a low standard of living – which recorded rates of at least 5.0 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2021. Particularly high infant mortality rates were observed in the five French outermost regions, including Guadeloupe, which had the highest rate (9.7 deaths per 1 000 live births) in the EU. This group of 20 regions also included:

  • five out of the six regions in Bulgaria (the exception being the capital region of Yugozapaden);
  • Východné Slovensko in Slovakia;
  • Anatoliki Makedonia, Thraki and Ionia Nisia in Greece;
  • five out of the eight regions in Romania (the exceptions being Sud-Muntenia, Vest and Bucureşti-Ilfov);
  • Kujawsko-pomorskie in Poland; and
  • La Rioja in Spain.

Some of the lowest infant mortality rates in the EU were often observed in capital regions. This may reflect, among other factors, higher living standards, better access to healthcare facilities, and/or a concentration of expertise and resources (for example, specialised neonatal units for infants requiring advanced medical interventions). However, there were some exceptions to this pattern, as infant mortality rates in the capital regions of Wien (Austria), Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (Portugal), Ile-de-France (France), and Noord-Holland (the Netherlands) were higher than their respective national averages.

In 2021, there were 32 NUTS level 2 regions where the infant mortality rate was below 2.0 deaths per 1 000 live births. These relatively low rates were concentrated in Italy (eight regions; 2020 data), Finland, Sweden (both four regions), and Czechia (three regions). Note there were no deaths of children under the age of one in Valle d’Aosta/Vallée d’Aoste (Italy; 2020 data) or Åland (Finland).

Figure 5: Infant mortality rate, 2021
(deaths of children under one year of age per 1 000 live births, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_minfind)

Source data for figures and maps

Data sources

Regional demographic statistics

Eurostat collects a wide range of regional demographic statistics: these include data on population numbers and various demographic events which influence the population’s size, structure and specific characteristics. Regional demographic statistics may be used for a wide range of planning, monitoring and evaluating actions, for example, to:

  • analyse population ageing and its effects on sustainability and welfare;
  • evaluate the economic impact of demographic change;
  • calculate ratios relative to the size of the population – such as regional GDP per person – which may be used, for example, to allocate structural funds to economically less advantaged regions.

Regional demographic data include statistics that provide a count for the usual resident population, representing the number of persons living in a given area on 1 January of the year in question (or, in some cases, 31 December of the previous year), as well as the number of live births and the number of deaths during the previous year. These data and indicators are presented at different levels of the NUTS classification (for EFTA and candidate countries the data are compiled according to statistical regions that have been coded in a similar way to NUTS).

NUTS level 2

  • population by sex, age and region of residence;
  • live births by mother’s age, mother’s year of birth and mother’s region of residence;
  • deaths by sex, age, year of birth and region of residence;
  • life table including life expectancy at a given exact age;
  • infant mortality and infant mortality rates.

NUTS level 3

  • population by sex, five-year age group and region of residence;
  • live births by five-year age group of the mothers and region of residence;
  • deaths by week, sex, five-year age group and region of residence;
  • demographic balance and crude rates (population change, natural change, net migration including statistical adjustment, crude birth and death rates, crude rates of population change);
  • population structure indicators (shares of various population age groups, dependency ratios and median ages);
  • fertility indicators (total fertility rate, mean age of woman at childbirth and median age of woman at childbirth);
  • population density.

All the indicators are also compiled for more aggregated levels of the NUTS classification. In other words, data compiled for NUTS level 3 regions will also be available for NUTS level 2 and NUTS level 1 (as well as at the country level).

Regional demographic data are collected in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics and the measures/conditions laid out in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 205/2014 of 4 March 2014.

Regional demographic data have been collected according to this legal basis since reference year 2013. Prior to 2013, regional demographic data were provided by national statistical authorities on a voluntary basis.

Indicator definitions

Population

The population, of a given area (region or country), is the total number of persons that are usually resident in that area. This count is generally compiled on 31 December each year and published as 1 January of the next year.

The average population for a calendar year is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the population on 1 January for two consecutive years. This measure is used, among other purposes, in the calculation of demographic indicators, such as crude rates per 1 000 persons.

Median age

The median age is the age that divides a population that has been ranked by age into two equal sized groups.

Age dependency ratio

Age dependency ratios typically contrast those persons who are economically dependent with those who are not. For the purpose of this article, the economically dependent population is defined as the sum of people aged less than 20 and people aged 65 or more; these two groups are generally considered to be economically inactive either because they are still in education or because they have retired from the labour force. By contrast, the economically productive population is defined as the number of people of working age, defined here as those aged 20–64. The age dependency ratio is calculated, for each region, by taking the economically dependent population and dividing by the number of people of working age; the result is expressed as a percentage.

Crude rate of natural population change

Population change is the difference in the size of a population between the end and the beginning of a given time period (usually one year). Specifically, it is the difference in population size on 1 January of two consecutive years.

Population change has two components: natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths) and net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants, plus statistical adjustment); it can be positive or negative. A natural population increase occurs when the number of live births is larger than the number of deaths during the time period under consideration. Conversely, a natural population decrease occurs when the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. The crude rate of natural population change is the ratio of natural population change during a year compared with the average population of that year; the value is expressed per 1 000 persons.

Fertility

Fertility is the ability to conceive (become pregnant) and give birth to children. The total fertility rate is defined as the mean number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates that have been measured in a given year.

A birth is defined as the start of life when a child emerges from the body of its mother. The total number of births includes both live births and stillbirths (foetal deaths). A live birth is the birth of a child who shows any sign of life; the number of live births refers to the number of births excluding stillbirths.

The mean age of women at childbirth is the average age at which a mother gives birth; this figure has generally increased over time in most EU Member States as a growing proportion of women delayed starting a family. One indicator that can be used to measure this development, is the share of live births to mothers aged 35 years or more.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth is the mean number of years a newborn child can expect to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the current mortality conditions. Life expectancy is normally calculated separately for all age levels, as well as for males, females and the total population.

Infant mortality A death, according to a United Nations definition, is the ‘permanent disappearance of all vital functions without possibility of resuscitation at any time after a live birth has taken place’; this definition therefore excludes stillbirths. Infant mortality refers to the death of live-born children aged less than one year.

The infant mortality rate is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths of children under one year of age to the number of live births in the reference year; the value is expressed per 1 000 live births.

Context

Prolonged life expectancy may be viewed as a considerable achievement of progress and economic development. However, when coupled with historically low fertility rates, it has led to a considerable change in the EU’s age structure, with a growing share of elderly persons in the population and conversely a relatively small share of young people. These developments may pose a range of societal challenges, with a higher proportion of individuals that are traditionally considered as unproductive or inactive (those aged 65 or more) acting as a break on economic growth, while relatively few younger people enter the labour force. The growing number of very old persons also has an impact on the sustainability of welfare systems and may require the development of a broad range of new services to cater for the specific demands of an increasingly frail population.

Demographic developments in the EU have been shaped by a variety of factors, including achievements in medicine, socioeconomic changes, and a pattern of increasing urbanisation. Policymakers can regulate some of the perceived issues linked to demographic transition through actions that prevent, delay, or address demographic imbalances, by introducing measures that have an impact on fertility rates, the process of population ageing and/or the flow of migrants (at a national and international level). These interventions can be direct (for example, vaccination programmes for young children) or indirect (for example, tax breaks or social transfers providing an incentive for people to have (more) children).

The impact of population ageing is already apparent in several EU Member States that start to experience labour force shortages for certain occupations. These issues may be alleviated to some degree through policy initiatives that encourage, among other actions, more flexible working opportunities, better provision of childcare, older people to remain in the labour market for longer. The European Commission has addressed the on-going demographic transition by adopting:

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Regional demographic statistics (t_reg_dem)
Population (regional level) (t_demopreg)
Population on 1 January by NUTS 2 region (tgs00096)
Population change by NUTS 2 region – Crude rates of total change, natural change and net migration plus adjustment (tgs00099)
Fertility (regional level) (t_demofreg)
Total fertility rate by NUTS 2 region (tgs00100)
Live births by NUTS 2 region (tgs00097)
Mortality (regional level) (t_demomreg)
Life expectancy at birth by sex and NUTS 2 region (tgs00101)
Live births by NUTS 2 region (tgs00097)
Regional demographic statistics (reg_dem)
Population and area (reg_dempoar)
Fertility (reg_demfer)
Mortality (reg_demmor)
Population (national level) (demo_pop)
Population (regional level) (demopreg)
Fertility (national level) (demo_fer)
Fertility (regional level) (demofreg)
Mortality (national level) (demo_mor)
Mortality (regional level) (demomreg)
EUROPOP2023 - Population projections at national level (2022-2100) (proj_23n)
EUROPOP2019 - Population projections at national level (2019-2100) (proj_19n)
EUROPOP2019 - Population projections at regional level (2019-2100) (proj_19r)

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This article forms part of Eurostat’s annual flagship publication, the Eurostat regional yearbook.