Ageing Europe - statistics on population developments


Data extracted in May-June 2019.

Planned article update: September 2021.

Highlights

It is projected that there will be more than half a million centenarians in the EU by 2050.

Women outnumber men at older ages within the EU population: in 2018, there were more than twice as many very old women (aged 85 years or more) as very old men.

The median age in the EU is projected to increase by 3.8 years between 2018 and 2050, to reach 46.9 years.

Population pyramids, EU-28, 2018 and 2050
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (proj_18np)


Ageing Europe — looking at the lives of older people in the EU is a Eurostat publication providing a broad range of statistics that describe the everyday lives of the European Union’s (EU) older generations.

Europeans are living longer than ever before and the age profile of society is rapidly evolving. Demographic ageing means the proportion of people of working age in the EU is shrinking, while the number of older people is expanding; this pattern will continue in the next couple of decades, as the post-war baby-boom generation completes its move into retirement.

Such developments are likely to have profound implications, not only for individuals, but also for governments, business and civil society, impacting, among others: health and social care systems, labour markets, public finances and pension entitlements (each of which is covered by subsequent chapters in this publication). However, the focus of this opening chapter is a set of demographic indicators that describe the latest developments for an ageing Europe.

Full article

Older people — population overview

Population ageing will rapidly transform the structure of society

Population ageing is a long-term development that has been evident for several decades in Europe. This process is being driven by historically low fertility rates, increasing life expectancy and, in some cases, migratory patterns (for example, those EU Member States characterised by net inflows of retired persons). Population projections suggest that the ageing of the EU’s population will quicken in the coming decades, with a rapid expansion in the number and share of older people.

The total population of the EU-28 is projected to increase from 512 million at the start of 2018 to peak at 525 million by 2044, before falling marginally through to 2050 (see Figure 1). The population of older people (defined here as those aged 65 years or more) will increase significantly, rising from 101 million at the start of 2018 to reach 149 million by 2050. During this period, the number of people in the EU-28 aged 75-84 years is projected to expand by 60.5 %, while the number aged 65-74 years is projected to increase by 17.6 %. In contrast, the latest projections suggest that there will be 9.6 % fewer people aged less than 55 years living in the EU-28 by 2050.

Figure 1: Population developments, by age class, EU-28 2001-2050
(million inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (proj_18np)

There will be more than half a million centenarians by 2050

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the projected changes to the EU’s population structure concerns the progressive ageing of the older population itself: the relative importance of the very old (people aged 85 years or more) is growing at a faster pace than any other age group. Between 2018 and 2050, the number of very old people in the EU-28 is projected to more than double, up 130.3 %. To give some idea of the magnitude of this change, the number of people aged 85 years or more is projected to increase from 13.8 million in 2018 to 31.8 million by 2050, while the number of centenarians (people aged 100 years or more) is projected to grow from close to 106 000 in 2018 to more than half a million by 2050.

Given the shrinking size of the working-age population and the growing number of older and very old people in society, one of the most pressing concerns for policymakers is to encourage older people to remain, for as long as possible, in the labour force.

In 2018, those people aged 55 years or more accounted for almost one third (32.8 %) of the total EU-28 population. Among the EU Member States, this share ranged from a high of more than one third (35.9 %) in Italy down to just less than one quarter (24.7 %) of the population in Ireland. The share of this age group (55 years or more) in the EU-28 population is projected to reach 40.6 % by 2050; it will increase in each of the EU Member States. By 2050, those aged 55 years or more are projected to account for almost half (47.1 %) of the total population in Portugal, and for at least 45.0 % in Italy, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Croatia.

Figure 2: People aged ≥55 years, by age class, 2018 and 2050
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (proj_18np)

The population is turning increasingly grey

Population pyramids provide an illustration as to how the total population is distributed across various age groups. Each pyramid shows the distribution of the population by sex and by five-year age group, with bars corresponding to the share of the given sex and age group in the total population; the sex and age structure of a population determines the ultimate shape of each population pyramid.

Figure 3 presents two pyramids for the EU-28 that are overlaid, one showing the situation at the start of 2018 (the solid bars) and the other a projection for 2050 (the bars with borders); they highlight the demographic transition that is projected to take place across the EU during the next three decades. The EU-28 population pyramid on 1 January 2018 is narrow at the bottom and is more like a rhomboid, with a bulge in the middle of the pyramid indicating that the baby-boom generation are fast approaching retirement. Falling fertility rates from the 1970s onwards explain why the base of the pyramid for 2018 is relatively narrow; this process is known as ‘ageing at the bottom’ (of the population pyramid).

In the coming decades, a high number of baby-boomers will swell the number of old and very old people as the EU-28 population pyramid takes on an almost pillar-like shape, with each age group having a similar share of the total population. The growing proportion of older people may be explained in part by increased longevity; this process is often referred to as ‘ageing at the top’ (of the population pyramid). One of the most striking aspects of the pyramid for 2050 is the widening of bars for the upper age groups, indicating that a greater share of the population will live to be very old (85 years or more); this is especially true among women.

Figure 3: Population pyramids, EU-28, 2018 and 2050
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (proj_18np)

Older people — differences between the sexes

There were more than twice as many very old women as very old men

Women consistently outnumber men at older ages within the EU-28 population. In recent years, this gap has started to narrow, as an increasing number of men survive to older ages. In 2018, there were, on average, 1.32 women aged 65 years or more in the EU-28 for every man of the same age. The biggest gender imbalances were recorded in the Baltic Member States: for example, there were more than two women aged 65 years or more for every man of the same age in Latvia.

Figure 4 shows that this gender gap was most apparent among very old people (aged 85 years or more). In 2018, there were more than twice as many very old women in the EU-28 (compared with very old men), a ratio of 2.08 : 1. The largest gaps between the sexes for this age group were also recorded in the Baltic Member States, as very old women outnumbered very old men by more than three to one. At the other end of the range, the gender imbalance for very old people was relatively narrow in Cyprus and particularly Greece (where there were 1.47 very old women for every man of the same age).

Figure 4: Gender imbalance for people aged ≥65 years, by age class, 2018
(ratio of women to men)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup)

Older people — increasingly old and with growing dependency

The median age will increase by 3.8 years by 2050

The median age of a population provides a useful summary of the overall age profile. A range of factors may influence the median age, including: fertility, life expectancy, social and economic development. In 2018, the median age of the EU-28 population was 43.1 years (see Figure 5). Across the EU Member States, the median age was below 40.0 years in Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland (where the lowest median age was recorded, 37.3 years). By contrast, the median age of the population was considerably higher in Germany (46.0 years) and peaked in Italy (46.3 years).

The EU-28’s median age is projected to increase by 3.8 years during the next three decades, to reach 46.9 years by 2050. This pattern will be repeated in each of the EU Member States, with the median age of the population projected to rise by 8.0 years or more in Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Cyprus. At the other end of the range, the age profiles of Denmark, Belgium, France, Germany and Sweden will likely evolve at a slower pace, as their median ages are projected to increase by less than 3.0 years during the period under consideration.

Figure 5: Median age of the population, 1990, 2018 and 2050
(years)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and (proj_18ndbi)

In the timespan of 50 years, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to more than double

The old age dependency ratio may be used to study the level of support given to older people by the working-age population; this ratio expresses the relative size of older population compared with the working-age population. The old-age dependency ratio for the EU-28 was 23.5 % in 2001 (see Figure 6); as such, there were just over four persons of working age for every person aged 65 years or more. By 2018, the old-age dependency ratio was 30.5 %, in other words, there were just over three persons of working age for every older person. Population projections suggest that the EU-28 old-age dependency ratio will continue to climb and will reach 49.9 % by 2050, when there will be two persons of working age for each older person.

Figure 6: Population structure indicators, EU-28, 2001-2050
(%)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and (proj_18ndbi)

In 2018, the old-age dependency ratio ranged, across the EU Member States, from lows of 20.6 % in Luxembourg and 21.2 % in Ireland to highs of 34.1 % in Greece, 34.2 % in Finland and 35.2 % in Italy. Figure 7 illustrates how this ratio is projected to evolve during the next three decades: between 2018 and 2050, the old-age dependency ratios of Slovakia, Ireland, Poland and Spain are projected to increase at a particularly rapid pace, at least doubling.

By 2050, half of the EU Member States are projected to have an old-age dependency ratio above 50.0 %; in other words, they will have less than two persons of working age for every person aged 65 years or more. In Greece and Italy, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach a level above 60.0 %, while it will peak at 65.8 % in Portugal. At the other end of the range, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to remain below 40.0 % in 2050 in the United Kingdom, Malta, Luxembourg, Sweden and Cyprus.

Figure 7: Old-age dependency ratio, 1990, 2018 and 2050
(%)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and (proj_18ndbi)

A rapid expansion in the number of very old people

The growing number of very old people (aged 85 years or more) in the EU-28 has a range of consequences. One of the principal areas of concern for policymakers is the cost of providing adequate health and long-term care, as very old people tend to consume proportionally more social services (their needs are usually greater than those of other age groups).

In 2018, the share of the very old people in the EU-28 population was 2.7 %. There were seven EU Member States where this share was less than 2.0 %, with Ireland, Cyprus and Slovakia each registering the lowest proportion (1.5 %). By contrast, France and three southern Member States — Spain, Greece and Italy — had the highest shares of very old people, with a peak of 3.5 % recorded in Italy.

There were more very old women than very old men in each of the EU Member States: however, the share of very old men was generally rising at a faster pace than the share of very old women between 2001 and 2018. Those Member States with the highest shares of very old people in their populations were characterised by having relatively large populations of very old men; this was particularly true in Greece, where very old men accounted for 1.3 % of the total population (both sexes) in 2018. The highest share for very old women was recorded in Italy (2.4 % of the total population).

Figure 8: People aged ≥85 years, by sex, 2001 and 2018
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup)

Older people — global developments

While population ageing is a global phenomenon, the ageing process is more advanced in some regions of the world than in others. The pace of population ageing in many developing countries is substantially faster than the historical precedents observed in developed economies. As such, the former are likely to face far greater pressures when adapting to the needs of their ageing populations.

Behind Japan, the EU provides one of the most distinctive examples of demographic ageing

The G20 countries are at various stages of economic and population development. While the process of population ageing is particularly established in Japan, this may be contrasted with South Africa or Saudi Arabia where young people dominate the population profile.

Figure 9 shows the share of older people (aged 65 years or more) in the total populations of the G20 nations. In 2015, older people accounted for 8.2 % of the world’s population. At one end of the spectrum, the share of older people was more than three times the global average in Japan, where the share of people aged 65 years or more in the total population was more than one quarter (26.0 %). The EU-28 had the next highest share of older people among the G20 nations (18.9 %). Half of the remaining G20 countries had shares of older people in their total populations that were above the global average; these included the United States (14.6 %) and China (9.3 %). Those G20 countries where older people accounted for a relatively small proportion of the total population are often characterised as emerging economies, with relatively young populations and expanding labour forces; examples include Turkey (where older people accounted for 7.9 % of the total population), Mexico (6.7 %), India (5.6 %) and Indonesia (5.4 %).

Figure 9: People aged ≥65 years, by age class, 2015
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and United Nations, World Population Prospects: the 2019 Revision

In 2015, the median age of the world population was 29.6 years. Japan (46.4 years) had the highest median age among the G20 nations and was followed by the EU-28 (42.4 years). There were only four G20 countries where the median age was below the world average: Indonesia, Mexico, India and South Africa.

Figure 10 also shows a set of projections [1]: by 2050, the median age of the world population is projected to reach 36.2 years. The highest median ages are projected for eastern Asia, peaking at 56.5 years in South Korea and 54.7 years in Japan, while the median age of the population in China (47.6 years) is also projected to rise above that of the EU-28 (46.9 years). By 2050, the only G20 country where the median age is projected to remain below the world average is South Africa (33.9 years).

Figure 10: Median age of the population, 1980, 2015 and 2050
(years)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and (proj_18ndbi) and United Nations, World Population Prospects: the 2019 Revision

The information presented in Figure 11 confirms the process of rapid population ageing in eastern Asia. The old-age dependency ratio for Japan will continue to rise at a rapid pace through to 2050, when it is projected to reach 74.3 %. This implies that having had four working-age people for each older person (aged 65 years or more) in 2000, Japan will likely move to a situation of having approximately 1.5 working-age persons for every older person by 2050. During the next three decades there will also be a considerable shift in the structure of the Chinese population. From having an old-age dependency ratio that was close to the world average in 2015, China is projected to see its ratio rise rapidly such that it will approach the level projected for the EU-28 by 2050.

Figure 11: Old-age dependency ratio, 1980-2050
(%)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) and (proj_18ndbi) and United Nations, World Population Prospects: the 2019 Revision

Older people — where do they live?

Older people were more inclined to living in rural areas

Rural areas can be places of great natural beauty, which offer a wide range of recreational activities. While such locations might appeal to other older people when they come to consider where to retire, these areas often suffer from a low provision of services. This may be particularly problematic for older people who face a greater risk of reduced mobility, illness or social exclusion. By contrast, urban environments may be advantageous for older people, notably in terms of providing better access to public transport, as well as a greater variety of housing options, public and commercial services.

In 2018, there were 101 million older people (aged 65 years or more) living in the EU-28. Of these, 42 % were living in predominantly urban regions and 38 % in intermediate regions, leaving 20 % in predominantly rural regions. Figure 12 compares the population distribution of older people by urban-rural typology. It shows that older people in the EU-28 were generally more inclined than their fellow compatriots to live in predominantly rural regions (as shown by indexed values greater than 100 %).

This pattern — a higher than average proportion of older people living in predominantly rural regions — was repeated in the vast majority of EU Member States; in 2018, the only exceptions were Slovakia, Belgium and Poland [2]. By contrast, the share of older people living in predominantly rural regions was high (relative to the share for the rest of the population) in France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and particularly Spain. In some cases, the relatively high shares of older people living in rural regions may reflect younger generations leaving sparsely populated regions (for example, in search of job opportunities and/or a better quality of life), while older people continue to live in rural areas.

Figure 12: People aged ≥65 years, by urban-rural typology, 2018
(%, share of total population living in each type of region = 100)
Source: Eurostat (urt_pjangrp3)

Older people accounted for a high share of the population in eastern Germany and northern Italy

Subnational breakdowns of demographic statistics can be useful to policymakers, particularly when making preparations for age-related services. Map 1 provides information by NUTS level 2 regions and is based on the shares of older people (aged 65 years or more) in the total population. In 2018, there were 14 regions across the EU where older people made up more than one quarter of the total population. These regions were principally located in eastern Germany and northern/central Italy (with only 5 of the 14 regions from other EU Member States): the highest shares were recorded in Chemnitz (eastern Germany; 28.5 %), Liguria (north-western Italy; 28.4 %) and Ipeiros (north-western Greece; 26.6 %).

Map 1: People aged ≥65 years, by NUTS level 2 regions, 2018
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind2)

There were high concentrations of older people in rural, sparsely populated regions

Figure 13 provides more detailed regional figures for NUTS level 3 regions. It underlines the considerable regional variations that exist in some of the EU Member States regarding the share of older people (aged 65 years or more) in the total population. Normally these differences reflect the contrasting situations that prevail between sparsely populated rural regions and urban centres; note that it was common to find the lowest shares of older people in capital city regions.

In 2018, older people accounted for more than one third (35.8 %) of the total population in the central Greek region of Evrytania — a relatively mountainous, rural region, which is sparsely populated. The next highest shares were recorded in the Belgian region of Arr. Veurne (31.7 %) that is located close to the English Channel and shares a border with France and the eastern German city of Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt (31.5 %) which has been characterised by a dramatic fall in population numbers since German reunification. Aside from Evrytania, there were several other relatively sparsely populated, remote regions where older people accounted for at least 30.0 % of the total population: Ourense (north-western Spain; 31.2 %), Creuse (central France; 30.1 %) or Alto Tâmega (northern Portugal; 30.0 %). By contrast, the lowest shares of older people were recorded in two of the outermost regions of France (Mayotte (2.7 %) and Guyane (5.3 %)), and seven regions from the United Kingdom, all but one of which — Manchester (9.3 %) — were part of London: Tower Hamlets (6.2 %), Hackney & Newham (7.4 %), Lambeth (8.1 %), Lewisham & Southwark (8.7 %), Haringey & Islington (9.3 %) and Wandsworth (9.4 %).

Figure 13: NUTS level 3 regions with the highest and lowest shares of people aged ≥65 years, 2018
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3)

Older people — where do they come from?

While declining fertility and increasing longevity are the key drivers of population ageing in the EU, international migration can also play a role. Indeed, migration usually slows down the ageing process, as a majority of immigrants tend to be relatively young (often searching for work opportunities and the chance of a better quality of life).

A relatively small proportion of older people are foreign citizens

Figure 14 presents information on the prominence of foreign citizens. In 2018, foreign citizens of another EU Member State accounted for 3.4 % of the EU-28 population, a share that fell to 1.7 % among older people (aged 65 years or more). This pattern was repeated in the vast majority of Member States, as only France and Croatia reported higher shares for older citizens of other Member States; this would tend to suggest that both France and Croatia were popular retirement destinations for citizens of other Member States.

Similarly, citizens of non-EU member countries accounted for 4.4 % of the EU-28 population, while their share of the older population was much lower, at 1.5 %. Again there were two exceptions to this pattern, Estonia and Latvia, where higher shares of older people (than the total population) were citizens of a non-member country. This may be linked to a high number of older people in Estonia and Latvia being classified as recognised non-citizens; they were mainly former Soviet Union citizens, who are permanently resident but have not acquired any other citizenship.

To conclude, across the EU it was relatively common to find the share of foreign citizens in the total population falling as a function of age, both for citizens of another EU Member State and citizens of a non-member country. This would tend to suggest that migratory flows have increased in recent years, or that some foreign citizens choose to leave their host economy once they have grown old (and finished their working lives). For example, in Luxembourg, foreign citizens made up almost half (47.8 %) of the total population in 2018, while their share among older people was considerably lower (at 28.4 %).

Figure 14: Citizenship, by age class, 2018
(% share of age class)
Source: Eurostat (migr_pop1ctz)

Notes

  1. Note the methodology used by the United Nations is different to that employed by Eurostat.
  2. Note that in the urban-rural typology there are no rural areas defined for Cyprus, Luxembourg or Malta.
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