Population projections

Please find below information on the most frequently asked questions regarding the Eurostat population projections.

Which are the most recent population projections published by Eurostat?

In April 2020, Eurostat published population projections based on 2019 data. The projections' time horizon is 2019-2100.

The population projections provide data on 31 European countries. Data is published at national level only.

As deterministic population projections, they can also be described as a ‘what-if’ analysis. Indeed they show how the population size and structure would change if the assumptions made regarding fertility, mortality and migration remained true over the whole projection period.

Why are population projections useful?

Even though they are hypothetical ‘what-if’ exercises, population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. The usual projection period spans over several decades, sometimes up to a century. Therefore, they contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes which affect our everyday lives.

For example, in the European context, demographic projections enable the analysis of the long-run economic and fiscal implications of Europe's ageing population.

Where can I find the data showing the assumptions made for this round of population projections?

Where can I find the projected population data?

The table Population on 1st of January by age, sex and type of projection shows the projected population by age, sex and year- ranging from 2019 up to 2100.

The table presents two types of projections:

  • baseline population projections, calculated based on the previously listed assumptions,
  • the ‘no migration’ sensitivity tests showing the projected population if no migration would occur.

Moreover, data are available on:

  • Projected totals for live births and deaths,
  • Sizes of age groups throughout the total projected population, age dependency ratios (including old-age dependency ratio) and the median age of the population.

Where can I find further information on the methodology?

Further information on the methodology is available here.