Population statistics at regional level

Data extracted in March 2024.

Planned article update: September 2025.

Highlights

As of 1 January 2023, the French outermost region of Mayotte had the highest young-age dependency ratio in the EU, while the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega had the highest old-age dependency ratio.

As of 1 January 2023 – and leaving aside the atypical French outermost regions of Mayotte (18.1 years) and Guyane (26.5 years) – the Danish capital region of Byen København (34.0 years) had the lowest median age among EU regions.

Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3)

On 1 January 2023, there were 448.8 million people living in the EU. During the course of 2022, the population of the EU increased (up 1.9 million). The rising number of inhabitants resulted from migratory flows, as natural population change was negative; in other words, there were more deaths than births. The relatively high number of migrants entering the EU during 2022 reflected, among other contexts, an influx of displaced people linked to the Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.

To provide an historical context to the latest figures, the rate at which the EU’s population was growing slowed after 2013 (when the population increased by 1.4 million). This development was compounded by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, as mortality rates increased (especially among elderly populations) and migration was hampered. During 2020 and 2021, the EU’s population fell for only the 2nd time since the start of the time series in 1960 (the only other time being in 2010). The number of inhabitants living in the EU rebounded in 2022, recording its highest annual increase since 1998.

Across the EU, people tend to live in relatively densely-populated cities or in towns and suburbs, while the vast majority of the EU’s land area is more sparsely populated. There are 242 NUTS level 2 regions and 1 166 NUTS level 3 regions across the EU from which a detailed typology for studying demographic developments can be established. Some of the differences described below reflect the criteria used to determine the administrative boundaries that delineate each of these regions.

Population events such as births, deaths and migratory flows shape demographic changes over time. Demographic developments are also impacted by irregular shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis or Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. The population pyramids shown in the infographic above highlight the considerable difference in age structures across NUTS level 3 regions. On 1 January 2023, the outermost region of Mayotte (France) had the highest young-age dependency ratio in the EU, while the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega had the highest old-age dependency ratio.

Demographic developments in the EU are far from uniform, with considerable variations both between and within individual EU countries. One factor that is often key to explaining these divergences is the mobility of young people, reflecting – among other issues – their search for education and/or job opportunities. As a result, some regions can thrive due to an inflow of younger more-qualified generations, whereas others lag behind and progressively age due to the departure of younger cohorts. This demographic transition may impact population structures across EU regions, resulting in (among other consequences)

major urban areas which are often characterised by relatively youthful populations, large numbers of people living alone, high costs of living, diverse educational opportunities and buoyant labour markets
towns and cities in former industrial heartlands that have been left behind economically, characterised by relatively high levels of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion
commuter belts/suburban areas which are often inhabited by families
coastal and countryside locations, some of which may be viewed as retirement locations for relatively affluent pensioners
other rural and remote regions which may exhibit declining population numbers and a relatively elderly population structure, while being characterised by narrow labour market opportunities and relatively poor access to a range of services.

Full article

Population structure

The median age is an indicator that can be used to analyse the pace at which population structures are changing. During the last 2 decades, the median age of the EU population increased by 5.5 years, up from 39.0 years on 1 January 2003 to 44.5 years by 1 January 2023.

The distribution of median ages across NUTS level 3 regions exhibited some skewness. On 1 January 2023, there were 753 regions that had median ages equal to or above the EU average, while there were 413 regions where the median age was below.

At the start of 2023, some of the highest median ages were recorded in rural regions …

At the top end of the distribution, there were 158 regions in the EU where the median age on 1 January 2023 was at least 50.0 years (as shown by the darkest shade of blue in Map 1). These regions were concentrated in eastern regions of Germany as well as central and northern regions of Italy; there were also several regions in Bulgaria, Greece, Spain, France and Portugal with relatively high median ages. Many of the regions with the highest median ages were characterised as relatively rural regions with low levels of disposable income and/or relatively high unemployment rates.

There were 3 regions in the EU where the median age exceeded 55.0 years on 1 January 2023

the northern Portuguese region of Alto Tâmega (56.5 years)
Arr. Veurne in north-west Belgium (56.2 years)
the mountainous region of Evrytania in central Greece (56.2 years).

… while some of the lowest median ages were recorded in and around capital cities

Capital regions often exert a considerable pull on inter-regional and international migrants, as they tend to provide a diverse range of educational and employment opportunities. This process can lead to a shift in population structures, with younger people accounting for a growing share of a region’s population; over time, this pattern may self-reinforce, insofar as populations with younger age structures are more likely to have relatively high birth rates.

There were 56 NUTS level 3 regions in the EU where the median age was less than 40.0 years on 1 January 2023 (they are shown with a yellow shade in Map 1). Upon further examination, many of these regions could be characterised as belonging to one of the following groups

capital regions – the lowest median ages among this group were recorded in the Danish capital region of Byen København (34.0 years), the Belgian capital region of Arr. de Bruxelles-Capitale/Arr. Brussel-Hoofdstad (35.9 years), the Irish capital region of Dublin (37.3 years) and the Dutch capital region of Groot-Amsterdam (38.0 years)
neighbouring regions that bordered or surrounded capital regions – for example, Mid-East in Ireland, 7 of the 8 regions that surround Paris, Flevoland in the Netherlands, or Ilfov in Romania
several other predominantly urban regions (not capitals) with relatively large student populations and dynamic labour markets – including (among others) Frankfurt am Main, München and Würzburg in Germany; Haute-Garonne and Rhône in France; Overig Groningen and Utrecht in the Netherlands; or Poznański and Gdański in Poland
outermost and autonomous regions, often characterised by relatively high fertility rates – for example, the French outermost regions of Mayotte (that had the lowest median age in the EU, at 18.1 years), Guyane and La Réunion, or the Spanish autonomous regions of Ceuta and Melilla.

Map 1: Median age of the population, 1 January 2023
(years, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind)

In 2022, the population increased in every region of Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Austria

Population change has 2 components: natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths) and net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants, with statistical adjustments).

The crude rate of total population change is the ratio of population change between 1 January of consecutive years compared with the average population of that same year; it is expressed per 1 000 inhabitants. In 2022, the EU’s total population increased by 2.7 million inhabitants; the crude rate of total population change was 6.0 per 1 000 people. A clear majority of EU regions had a positive rate of change in population numbers: this was the case in 806 out of 1 164 regions for which data are available (69.2%), as shown by those regions denoted by a teal shade in Map 2. A negative rate was recorded in 357 regions (30.7%), while there was a single region – Dolj in Romania – which recorded no change in its population.

Map 2 shows that in 2022 there was a positive development for population across every NUTS level 3 region of Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Malta and Austria; this was the case in Cyprus and Luxembourg too. The vast majority of regions in Germany and the Netherlands also recorded positive rates, with the only exceptions being Mansfeld-Südharz and Hildburghausen in the former and Het Gooi en Vechtstreek in the latter.

At the top end of the distribution, there were 102 NUTS level 3 regions where the crude rate of total population change was at least 18.0 per 1 000 people in 2022 (they are shown in the darkest shade of blue in Map 2). Looking in more detail, this group included 3 regions with rates above 50.0 per 1 000 people

the Maltese region of Gozo and Comino/Għawdex u Kemmuna (which recorded the highest crude rate of total population change, 141.4 per 1 000 people)
the Czech capital region of Hlavní město Praha (62.2 per 1 000 people)
the Irish region of Midland (52.6 per 1 000 people).

Across NUTS level 3 regions, the 3 largest increases in overall population numbers between 1 January 2022 and 1 January 2023 were recorded in some of the EU’s most prominent cities

Barcelona in Spain (an increase of 155 800 people)
the Spanish capital region of Madrid (an increase of 102 500 people)
Hlavní město Praha in Czechia (an increase of 81 900 people).

Rising population numbers in these 3 regions resulted mainly from migratory flows (the origin of migrants can be other regions from the same country, other EU countries, or non-EU countries). Net migration plus statistical adjustment accounted for 106.5% of the overall population increase in Barcelona, 100.2% in Madrid and 99.1% in Hlavní město Praha. Values higher than 100.0% indicate that natural population change was negative, in other words, there were more deaths than births.

In 2022, the lowest crude rates of total population change were recorded in Bulgaria

In 2022, negative crude rates of total population change were observed across a majority of the regions in Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Finland. However, Bulgaria was the only EU country to report a negative rate for every NUTS level 3 region. Indeed, the 12 EU regions with the lowest crude rates of total population change were all located in Bulgaria. The north-eastern region of Dobrich (-127.9 per 1 000 people; equivalent to a fall of 12.8%) had the lowest rate of population change among EU regions, while Shumen, Kardzhali, Targovishte and Veliko Tarnovo also recorded rates that were less than -100.0 per 1 000 people.

Across NUTS level 3 regions, the 3 most sizeable decreases in the total population between 1 January 2022 and 1 January 2023 were recorded in southern Poland

the Bulgarian region of Varna (a fall of 37 800 people)
the Hungarian capital region of Budapest (a fall of 35 800 people)
the Bulgarian region of Plovdiv (a fall of 31 400 people).

Falling population numbers for these 3 regions were largely composed of changes resulting from migratory flows. Net migration plus statistical adjustment accounted for 92.1% of the overall reduction in Varna, 85.1% in Plovdiv and 78.6% in Budapest.

Map 2: Crude rate of total population change, 2022
(‰ people, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_gind3) and (demo_gind)

Fertility

In 2022, there were 3.9 million live births in the EU. The total number of births decreased by 209 000 (equivalent to a fall of 5.1%) when compared with 2021.

The total fertility rate is the average (mean) number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. In 2022, the total fertility rate in the EU was 1.46 live births per woman. This rate had been somewhat higher in 2021, when it stood at 1.53 live births per woman.

The natural replacement rate – which is the average number of live births per woman required to keep the population size constant in the absence of migration – is estimated to be around 2.10 children per woman for developed world economies. During the last 2 decades – the period for which an EU time series is available – the fertility rate was consistently below the natural replacement rate. It was in the range of 1.43 to 1.57 live births per woman between 2001 and 2022.

Map 3 shows the distribution of total fertility rates across NUTS level 3 regions. In 2022, the regional distribution was somewhat skewed insofar as there were 471 NUTS level 3 regions (40.4% of all regions) where the total fertility rate was below the EU average, while there were 695 regions (59.6%) where the rate was equal to or higher than the EU average.

In 2022, the highest fertility rates were recorded in the French outermost regions

A more detailed analysis of the latest data for 2022 reveals that

some of the highest fertility rates were concentrated in regions across Bulgaria, France and Romania
some of the lowest fertility rates were concentrated in regions across Greece, Spain, Italy and Lithuania
in several EU countries, the lowest fertility rate was recorded in the capital region – this was the case for Hlavní město Praha (Czechia), Byen København (Denmark), Dublin (Ireland), Rīga (Latvia), Budapest (Hungary), Malta (Malta), Groot-Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and Wien (Austria).

In 2022, there were 13 NUTS level 3 regions where the total fertility rate was equal to or above the natural replacement rate of 2.10 live births per woman (they are shown in the darkest shade of blue in Map 3). The highest rates were recorded in the French outermost regions of Mayotte (4.52 live births per woman) and Guyane (3.54 live births per woman), followed – at some distance – by the eastern Bulgarian region of Sliven (2.37 live births per woman). 5 out of the 10 remaining regions with fertility rates equal to or above the natural replacement rate were located in France (either outermost regions or regions within close proximity of the capital), 3 were in Romania, while there was another region from Bulgaria and a single region from Germany.

At the other end of the range, there were 14 NUTS level 3 regions where the total fertility rate was less than 1.00 live births per woman in 2022. These regions were concentrated in southern EU countries: with 9 located in Spain (in the north-west, Canarias or Illes Balears) and 3 in Italy (all in Sardegna); they were joined by single regions in south-west Germany (Heidelberg, Stadtkreis) and central Greece (Fokida). The lowest fertility rate in the EU was recorded in Tenerife (Spain), at 0.79 live births per woman.

Map 3: Total fertility rate, 2022
(average number of live births per woman, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find)

Women in the EU are giving birth later in life

Relatively low levels of fertility across most EU regions reflect a growing proportion of women giving birth later in life. This may be linked, among other factors, to

higher female participation rates in further education and/or more women choosing to establish a career before starting a family
lower levels of job security (for example, in precarious employment)
the increasing cost of raising children and of housing
a decline in the number of traditional family units (fewer people getting married, more same sex couples, and more people getting divorced).

Across the EU, the median age of women at childbirth rose from 30.9 to 31.7 years between 2013 and 2022.

Figure 1 shows that, among NUTS level 3 regions, the Greek capital region of Voreios Tomeas Athinon had the highest median age of mothers at childbirth (35.7 years in 2022), followed by the West region of Ireland (35.1 years). Some of the highest median ages were recorded in capital regions and predominantly urban regions. This may reflect a variety of cultural, socioeconomic and personal factors, including

better education/job opportunities leading some women to prioritise their education and/or career development
better access to healthcare in these regions, increasing the likelihood of a successful pregnancy for older women
more progressive social norms, giving women more freedom to decide when they have children
a wide range of recreational activities, cultural events and social networks, which some women may choose to enjoy before they give consideration to starting a family.

At the other end of the distribution there were 14 NUTS level 3 regions where, in 2022, the median age of women at childbirth was less than 27.5 years. All of these regions were located in either Bulgaria (8 regions) or Romania (6 regions). The lowest median age was registered in the eastern Bulgarian region of Sliven, at 23.7 years.

Figure 1: Median age of mothers at childbirth, 2022
(years, by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find)

Mortality

Historically, life expectancy at birth in the EU has risen at a relatively consistent pace with a few exceptional periods (such as during war). In 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy at birth in the EU had been 81.3 years. However, there were consecutive falls of 0.9 years in 2020 and 0.3 years in 2021. The data available for 2022 show that life expectancy in the EU resumed an upward development, rising to 80.6 years, which was nevertheless 0.7 years lower than the pre-pandemic level.

There are a range of potential drivers that may impact inter-regional differences in life expectancy, including

proximity to healthcare services – capital regions tend to have a greater number and variety of healthcare facilities compared with rural regions
the prosperity of a region – life expectancy is generally higher in regions characterised by a higher standard of living and lower in regions characterised by poverty and social deprivation
lifestyle and cultural differences – for example, the type of work that predominates in a region, the typical diet of a region, or the incidence of smoking and alcohol consumption
climatic conditions – people living in warm or temperate and relatively dry climates tend to live longer lives than those living in regions that experience more extreme weather conditions.

In every region of the EU life expectancy at birth for women was higher than for men

Map 4 shows life expectancy at birth for women and men; both maps use the same class boundaries in their legends to aid comparison. In 2022, life expectancy for women (83.3 years) was 5.4 years higher than for men (77.9 years).

This gender gap – in favour of women – was repeated in all of the 242 NUTS level 2 regions for which data are available. In 2022, the largest regional gender gaps for life expectancy at birth were recorded in the Baltic countries and several Polish and Romanian regions. The biggest gap was recorded in Latvia (where life expectancy for women was 10.0 years higher than for men).

Differences in life expectancy at birth between women and men were generally much smaller in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden. However, the smallest gender gap was observed in the French outermost region of Mayotte (where life expectancy for women was 0.4 years higher than for men).

In 2022, life expectancy at birth for women was highest (as shown by the darkest shade of blue in Map 4) in several regions across Spain, France and Italy. The only other NUTS level 2 regions to record life expectancy for women of at least 85.0 years were Prov. Vlaams-Brabant (Belgium), Ipeiros (Greece), Luxembourg (a single region), Norte (Portugal), Åland (Finland), Stockholm and Småland med öarna (both Sweden).

Life expectancy at birth for women peaked in the Spanish capital region of Comunidad de Madrid (87.7 years in 2022), while 2 other Spanish regions – Comunidad Foral de Navarra (86.9 years) and Castilla y León (86.7 years) – had the 2nd and 3rd highest values. Outside of Spain, the highest level among NUTS level 2 regions was recorded in the French capital region of Ile-de-France (86.6 years). The top 10 regions with the highest levels of life expectancy for women was completed by 4 additional Spanish regions (Cataluña and 3 northern regions), Rhône-Alpes (France) and Provincia Autonoma di Trento (Italy).

The lowest level of life expectancy at birth for women among NUTS level 2 regions was recorded in the French outermost region of Mayotte (74.4 years in 2022; this was also the region with the lowest level of gross domestic product (GDP) per inhabitant in the EU). There were 5 other regions where life expectancy was less than 78.0 years (as shown by the lightest 2 shades in Map 4). One of these was in northern Hungary, while the other 4 were located in Bulgaria.

In 2022, the highest regional levels of life expectancy at birth for men were concentrated in Belgium, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Sweden. The only other NUTS level 2 regions to record life expectancy for men of at least 80.5 years were Ile-de-France and Rhône-Alpes (both France), Luxembourg, Utrecht (the Netherlands) and Åland (Finland). As was the case for women the highest level of life expectancy for men was recorded in the Spanish capital region of Comunidad de Madrid (82.4 years in 2022). The northern Italian region of Provincia Autonoma di Trento and the Swedish capital region of Stockholm (both 82.3 years) had the next highest levels. The top 10 regions were completed by

3 additional northern Italian regions
2 additional Swedish regions
the Irish (Eastern and Midland) and French (Ile-de-France) capital regions.

Across NUTS level 2 regions, the lowest level of life expectancy at birth for men was recorded in the Bulgarian region of Severozapaden (68.7 years in 2022; this was also the region with the 2nd lowest level of GDP per inhabitant in the EU). There were 2 other regions where life expectancy at birth for men was less than 70.0 years: Severen tsentralen (also in Bulgaria) and Latvia.

Map 4: Life expectancy at birth, 2022
(years, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mlifexp) and (demo_mlexpec)

Infant mortality rates

Within the EU, the principal driver behind increases in life expectancy is the marked reduction in infant mortality rates. The EU’s infant mortality rate is low by international standards, reflecting well-established healthcare systems, access to quality prenatal and neonatal care, and comprehensive social support.

The EU’s infant mortality rate had been 26.5 deaths per 1 000 live births in 1970. By 2010, it had been considerably reduced, falling to 4.0 deaths per 1 000 live births. This downward path continued during most of the next decade (albeit at a slower pace): in 2021, a rate of 3.2 per 1 000 live births was recorded. In 2022, there were 12 872 children in the EU who died before reaching 1 year of age; this equated to an infant mortality rate of 3.3 deaths per 1 000 live births (a modest increase compared with the year before).

Map 5 shows that the distribution of infant mortality rates across NUTS level 2 regions had some skewness in 2022. In 138 regions the rate was lower than the EU average, while in 93 regions it was higher; in the remaining 11 regions the rate was identical to the EU average (3.3 deaths per 1 000 live births).

Some of the lowest infant mortality rates in the EU were observed in capital regions. This may reflect, among other factors

higher living standards
better access to healthcare facilities and/or
a concentration of expertise and resources (for example, specialised neonatal units for infants requiring advanced medical interventions).

However, there were exceptions to this pattern, as infant mortality rates in the capital regions of Ile-de-France (France), Wien (Austria) and Zahodna Slovenija (Slovenia) were higher than their respective national averages, while the rates in Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (Portugal) and Stockholm (Sweden) were the same as their national averages.

In 2022, there were 23 NUTS level 2 regions where the infant mortality rate was below 2.0 deaths per 1 000 live births. These relatively low rates were mainly located in Italy (6 regions), Czechia, Spain, Finland and Sweden (all 3 regions each). There were no deaths of children under the age of 1 in Åland (Finland).

At the upper end of the distribution, there were 8 NUTS level 2 regions with infant mortality rates of at least 7.0 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2022 (as shown by the darkest shade of blue in Map 5). Many of these regions were rural/remote regions.

In 2022, some of the highest infant mortality rates among NUTS level 2 regions were recorded in Bulgaria, Greece, the outermost regions of France and Slovakia. The French regions of Mayotte and Guyane had the highest rates in the EU (10.1 and 9.8 deaths per 1 000 live births, respectively), while the 3rd highest rate was recorded in the eastern Slovak region of Východné Slovensko (9.7 deaths per 1 000 live births).

Map 5: Infant mortality rate, 2022
(deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1 000 live births, by NUTS 2 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_minfind) and (demo_minfind)

Source data for figures and maps

Population at regional level

Data sources

Regional demographic statistics

Eurostat collects a wide range of regional demographic statistics: these include data on population numbers and various demographic events which influence the population’s size, structure and specific characteristics. Regional demographic statistics may be used for a wide range of planning, monitoring and evaluating actions, for example, to

study population ageing and its effects on sustainability and welfare
evaluate the economic impact of demographic change
calculate ratios relative to the size of the population – for example, regional GDP per inhabitant – which is a key measure when allocating structural funds to economically less advantaged regions.

Demographic statistics include information for a count of the usual resident population, representing the number of people living in a given area on 1 January of a given reference year (or, in some cases, 31 December of the previous year), as well as the number of live births and the number of deaths during the previous year. These statistics are presented for different levels of regions within the EU, EFTA and candidate countries.

NUTS level 2

Population by sex, age and region of residence
Live births by mother’s age, mother’s year of birth and mother’s region of residence
Deaths by sex, age, year of birth and region of residence
Life table including life expectancy at a given exact age
Infant mortality and infant mortality rates

NUTS level 3

Population by sex, 5-year age group and region of residence
Live births by 5-year age group of the mothers and region of residence
Deaths by week, sex, 5-year age group and region of residence
Demographic balance and crude rates (population change, natural change, net migration including statistical adjustment, crude birth and death rates, crude rates of population change)
Population structure indicators (shares of various population age groups, dependency ratios and median ages)
Fertility indicators (total fertility rate, mean age of woman at childbirth and median age of woman at childbirth)
Population density

Regional demography statistics are collected in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics and the measures/conditions laid out in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 205/2014 of 4 March 2014.

Regional demographic data have been collected according to this legal basis since reference year 2013. Prior to 2013, regional demographic data were provided by national statistical institutes on a voluntary basis.

Indicator definitions

Population

For population statistics, Eurostat recommends the use of the 'usually resident population' which represents the number of inhabitants of a given area on 1 January of the year in question (or, in some cases, on 31 December of the previous year). The population transmitted by countries can also be based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers.

The average population during a calendar year is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the population on 1 January of the year and of the following year. This measure is used, among other purposes, in the calculation of demographic indicators, such as crude rates per 1 000 people.

Median age

The median age is the age that divides a population that has been ranked by age into 2 equal sized groups.

Age dependency ratio

Age dependency ratios typically contrast those people who are economically dependent with those who aren’t. For the purpose of this chapter, the economically dependent population is defined as the sum of people aged less than 20 and people aged 65 or over; these 2 groups are generally considered to be economically inactive either because they are likely to be still in education or because they are likely to have retired from the labour force. By contrast, the economically productive population is defined as the number of people of working age, defined here as those aged 20–64. Age dependency ratios are calculated, for each region, by taking the economically dependent population and dividing by the number of people of working age; the results are expressed as a percentage. Within this chapter, information is provided for the young-age dependency ratio (the number of people aged less than 20 compared with the number of people aged 20–64) and the old-age dependency ratio (the number of people aged 65 or over compared with the number of people aged 20–64).

Crude rate of natural population change

Population change is the difference in the size of a population between the end and the beginning of a given time period (usually a year). Specifically, it is the difference in population size on 1 January for consecutive years.

Population change has 2 components: natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths) and net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants, plus statistical adjustment); both components can be positive or negative.

A natural population increase occurs when the number of live births is larger than the number of deaths during the time period under consideration. Conversely, a natural population decrease occurs when the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. The crude rate of natural population change is the ratio of natural population change during a year compared with the average population of that year; the value is expressed per 1 000 people.

Fertility

Fertility is the ability to conceive (become pregnant) and give birth to children. The total fertility rate is defined as the mean number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates that have been measured in a given year.

A birth is defined as the start of life when a child emerges from the body of its mother. The total number of births includes both live births and stillbirths (foetal deaths). A live birth is the birth of a child who shows any sign of life; the number of live births refers to the number of births excluding stillbirths.

The median age of women at childbirth is the age that divides the population of mothers at childbirth in 2 numerically equal groups, meaning half of the mothers are younger than the median age and half are older.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth is the mean number of years a newborn child can expect to live if subjected throughout their life to the current mortality conditions. Life expectancy is normally calculated separately for all age levels, as well as for males, females and the total population.

Infant mortality A death, according to a United Nations definition, is the ‘permanent disappearance of all vital functions without possibility of resuscitation at any time after a live birth has taken place’; this definition therefore excludes stillbirths. Infant mortality refers to the death of live-born children aged less than 1 year.

The infant mortality rate is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age to the number of live births in the reference year; the value is expressed per 1 000 live births.

Context

Demographic developments in the EU have been shaped by a variety of factors, including achievements in medicine, socioeconomic changes, and a pattern of increasing urbanisation. Policymakers can regulate some of the perceived issues linked to demographic transition through actions that prevent, delay, or address demographic imbalances, by introducing measures that have an impact on fertility rates, the process of population ageing and/or the flow of migrants (nationally and internationally). These interventions can be direct (for example, vaccination programmes for young children) or indirect (for example, tax breaks or social transfers providing an incentive for people to have (more) children).

Prolonged life expectancy may be viewed as a considerable achievement of progress and economic development. However, when coupled with historically low fertility rates, it has led to a major change in the EU’s age structure, with a growing share of elderly people in the population. These developments may pose a range of societal challenges, with a higher proportion of individuals that are traditionally considered as unproductive or inactive (those aged 65 or over) acting as a break on economic growth, while relatively few younger people enter the labour force. The growing number of very old people in the EU also has an impact on the sustainability of welfare, health and care systems and may require the development of a broad range of new services to cater for the specific demands of an increasingly frail population.

Population ageing is already apparent in several EU countries. It manifests itself through labour market shortages for certain occupations and by putting the EU’s long-term economic prosperity and competitiveness at risk. These challenges may be alleviated to some degree through policy initiatives that encourage, among other actions, more flexible working opportunities, better provision of childcare, or older people to remain in the labour market for longer.

The European Commission has addressed the on-going demographic transition by adopting

a Green Paper on Ageing – Fostering solidarity and responsibility between generations (COM(2021) 50 final)
A long-term vision for the EU’s rural areas – Towards stronger, connected, resilient and prosperous rural areas by 2040
a Communication on Harnessing talent in Europe’s regions (COM(2023) 32 final)
a Communication on Demographic change in Europe: a toolbox for action (COM(2023) 577 final).