Data extracted on 03 June 2026
Planned article update: 16 September 2026
Highlights
Across the EU, excess mortality decreased to -4.8% in March 2026.
For Q1 2026, the EU average was estimated at -0.3%, well below the same period in 2025 (2.7%) and Q4 2025 (4.7%).
In Q1 2026, the lowest excess mortality rates were observed in March, with Latvia (-15.0%), Luxembourg (-14.2%), and Belgium (-11.7%). By contrast, the highest rates occurred in February, led by the Netherlands (17.2%), Denmark (16.9%), and Finland (13.7%).
This article presents an overview of the developments in excess mortality across the EU in Q1 2026, based on all-cause mortality data.
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that, which was observed in the baseline period. The baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It presents a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause. For more information on the method used to calculate the indicator, see the section below on data sources.
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
Between January 2025 and March 2026, EU excess mortality exhibited notable monthly variations, peaking in October 2025 (Figure 1). In Q1 2026, the average dropped to -0.3%, significantly lower than the 2.7% recorded in the same quarter of 2025. Monthly trends within Q1 2026 revealed a decline over time: January (5.7%), February (-1.6%), and March (-4.8%). Both February (-1.6%) and March (-4.8%) recorded lower excess mortality than the same period in 2025 (1.9% and 1.4%, respectively).
In Q1 2026, an estimated -700 excess deaths were recorded across the EU, with 26 220 in January, -6 513 in February and -20 407 in March (Figure 2). This represents a significant decline compared to 35 320 excess deaths in Q1 2025, reflecting a substantial reduction at EU level. At national level, Germany (9 852), France (7 546) and the Netherlands (5 226) reported the highest numbers of excess deaths during that period. Conversely, Italy (-8 172), Bulgaria (-3 729) and Hungary (-3 623) were among the countries where excess mortality remained below the expected baseline.
Excess mortality by EU country
Excess mortality in Q1 2026 varied significantly across EU countries. Among the 26 EU countries with excess mortality data for that period, four countries remained above the expected mortality baseline for all three months: Netherlands, Finland, Ireland and Malta. Six countries were consistently below the baseline throughout Q1: Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Italy, Latvia and Slovenia. Sixteen countries showed mixed monthly patterns — Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Sweden — alternating between months above and below the baseline (Figure 3).
In January 2026, the EU-wide excess mortality rate increased to 5.7%. Eight countries recorded fewer deaths than expected, with the lowest rates in Bulgaria (-13.9%), Romania (-11.1%) and Latvia (-7.9%). The highest rates were observed in France (15.1%), Germany (14.9%) and Luxembourg (13.0%).
In February, the EU-wide excess mortality rate decreased to -1.6%. Eighteen countries recorded negative excess mortality, with the lowest rates in Romania (-14.2%), Hungary (-13.1%) and Bulgaria (-12.9%). Excess mortality was highest in the Netherlands (17.2%), Denmark (16.9%) and Finland (13.7%).
In March, the EU-average excess mortality decreased to -4.8%. Eighteen countries recorded fewer deaths than expected, especially Latvia (−15.0%), Luxembourg (-14.2%) and Belgium (-11.7%). The highest excess mortality rates were recorded in Malta (11.8%), the Netherlands (7.6%) and Cyprus (6.0%) (Figure 3).
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
Weekly deaths across the EU showed an overall decline during Q1 2026, though short-term trends varied by country (Figure 4). Over the quarter, the EU recorded an estimated 1.4 million deaths -2.8% fewer than in the same period of 2025 (a reduction of approximately 40 000 deaths). From week 8 onward, weekly mortality consistently fell below the expected baseline. Earlier in the quarter, levels fluctuated, remaining below 2025 figures for most weeks but generally above the 2016–2019 historical baseline.
Further releases
Starting from the data reference period of January 2025, this article and the related indicator will be updated quarterly, with Q2 2026 scheduled for publication by mid-September 2026.
For additional information on the COVID-19 pandemic see Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source data for graphs
The data displayed in these visualisations come from the following Eurostat datasets:
Information on data reliability, series breaks, and differing definitions, flags can be consulted in the online datasets.
Data sources
The monthly excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in each period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The European Union (EU) average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that there were fewer deaths than might be expected in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU countries on a voluntary basis since April 2020. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remains provisional and subject to revision with the next releases. All 27 EU countries provided weekly mortality data. Data received from EFTA and neighboring countries are not present in this article. Data for several countries were recalculated from 2024 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2025. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator is missing for March 2026 for Romania. The EU aggregate for March 2026 was estimated using data from the last three available weeks (weeks 11, 12 and 13 of 2026) for Romania.
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes).
Explore further
Other articles
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Thematic section
Visualisation
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)