Data extracted on 1 December 2025
Planned article update: 17 March 2026
Highlights
Across the EU, excess mortality decreased to 2.5% in September 2025
In Q3 2025, excess mortality averaged 2.8% across the EU, positioned between the Q1 level (2.7%) and the Q2 level (3.2%)
Malta, Finland and Portugal recorded the highest excess mortality rates in September 2025 (14.5%, 11.1% and 10.7% respectively), while Hungary (−9.8%), Latvia (−9.3%), and Bulgaria (−7.3%) recorded the lowest.
This article presents an overview of the developments in excess mortality across the EU in Q3 2025, based on all-cause mortality data.
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that, which was observed in the baseline period. The baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause. For more information on the method used to calculate the indicator, see below for data sources.
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
From January 2024 to September 2025, excess mortality in the EU showed monthly fluctuations, with peaks in September–October 2024 and early 2025 (Figure 1). In Q3 2025, excess mortality in the EU averaged 2.8%, which was well below the 7.0% recorded in Q3 2024. Looking at individual months within the quarter, excess mortality was 2.7% in July, 3.3% in August, and 2.5% in September. All 3 months recorded lower excess mortality than in the same months of 2024 (6.5%, 6.8%, and 7.8%, respectively).
In Q3 2025, 30 372 excess deaths were estimated, 9 986 in July, 11 790 in August and 8 596 in September (Figure 2). This compares with 45 225 in Q3 2024, indicating a substantial decrease at EU level. At national level, Germany (10 285 excess deaths in Q3), France (9 481) and Spain (8 798) recorded the highest numbers of excess deaths. Meanwhile, Hungary (–2 463), Bulgaria (–1 807) and Italy (–1 265) were among the countries whose excess mortality values did not exceed the expected baseline.
Excess mortality by EU country
Excess mortality in Q3 2025 varied significantly across EU countries. Among the 24 EU countries with excess mortality data for July, August and September 2025, twelve countries remained above the expected mortality baseline for all three months: Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Spain, France, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Austria, Portugal and Finland. Four countries were consistently below the baseline throughout Q3: Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia and Hungary. Eight countries showed mixed monthly patterns — Belgium, Czechia, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia and Sweden — alternating between months above and below the baseline (Figure 3). For the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia, September data were not available.
In July 2025, the EU-wide excess mortality rate stood at 2.7%. Nine countries recorded fewer deaths than expected, with the lowest rates in Hungary (−7.7%), Romania (−6.0%) and Latvia (−5.8%). The highest rates were observed in Malta (42.2%), Portugal (19.8%) and Finland (11.6%).
In August, the EU-wide excess mortality rate rose to 3.3%. Eight countries recorded negative excess mortality, with the lowest rates in Romania (−10.0%), Bulgaria (−9.6%) and Hungary (−7.3%). Excess mortality was highest in Malta (26.9%), Luxembourg (18.7%) and Portugal (17.0%).
In September, the EU-average excess mortality decreased to 2.5%. Eight countries recorded fewer deaths than expected, especially Hungary (−9.8%), Latvia (−9.3%) and Bulgaria (−7.3%). The highest excess mortality rates were recorded in Malta (14.5%), Finland (11.1%) and Portugal (10.7%) (Figure 3).
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
Weekly deaths across the EU declined overall during the third quarter of 2025, although short-term patterns varied between countries (Figure 4). During Q3, the EU recorded an estimated 1.09 million deaths, which was 3.7% fewer than in the same period of 2024 (a reduction of approximately 41 419 deaths). Throughout most of the quarter, weekly mortality remained close to or slightly above the historical 2016–2019 baseline, with only week 31 falling slightly below the expected level. When weekly mortality falls below the baseline, this is also reflected in excess mortality values that do not exceed the expected historical level for that period, both at national and EU level.
Further releases
Starting from the data reference period of January 2025, this article and the related indicator will be updated quarterly, with Q4 2025 scheduled for publication by mid-March 2026.
For additional information on the COVID-19 pandemic see Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source data for graphs
The data displayed in these visualisations come from the following Eurostat datasets:
Information on data reliability, series breaks, and differing definitions, flags can be consulted in the online datasets.
Data sources
The monthly excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in each period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The European Union (EU) average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that there were fewer deaths than might be expected in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU countries on a voluntary basis since April 2020. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remains provisional and subject to revision with the next releases. All 27 EU countries provided weekly mortality data. Data received from EFTA and neighboring countries are not present in this article. The EU aggregate for the third quarter 2025 was estimated using the most recent available data. Country-level September data for the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia were not available; however, estimated values were used for EU-level aggregates and excess deaths. Data for several countries were recalculated from 2024 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2025For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes).
Explore further
Other articles
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Thematic section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisation
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time