Data extracted 2 September 2026
Planned article update: 16 December 2026
Highlights
Across the EU, excess mortality increased to 7.1% in June 2026.
For Q2 2026, the EU average excess mortality rate was estimated at 4.2%, up from 3.2% in the same quarter of 2025.
In Q2 2026, the lowest excess mortality rates were observed in April, with Latvia (-13.3%), Romania (-11.5%) and Bulgaria (-11.1%). By contrast, the highest rates occurred in June, led by the Netherlands (22.4%), Belgium (18.9%) and Germany (16.8%).
This article presents an overview of the developments in excess mortality across the EU in Q2 2026, based on all-cause mortality data.
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that, which was observed in the baseline period. The baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It presents a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause. For more information on the method used to calculate the indicator, see the section below on data sources.
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
Between April 2026 and June 2026, EU excess mortality varied over time, reaching its highest level in June 2026 (Figure 1).
In Q2 2026, the average stood at 4.2%, compared with 3.2% in the same quarter of 2025. Within the quarter, the rate increased from 1.8% in April to 3.8% in May and 7.1% in June.
In Q2 2026, an estimated 45 669 excess deaths were recorded across the EU, with 6 713 in April, 13 905 in May and 25 051 in June (Figure 2). This was higher than the 35 571 excess deaths recorded in Q2 2025.
At national level, Germany (19 760), France (12 356), and the Netherlands (6 055) reported the highest numbers of excess deaths during the quarter. Conversely, Bulgaria (-2 721), Hungary (-1 098), and Lithuania (-833) were among the countries where deaths remained below the expected baseline.
Excess mortality by EU country
Excess mortality varied across EU countries during Q2 2026. Among the 25 countries included in the comparison for all three months:
- 15 remained above the expected mortality baseline throughout the quarter: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Finland.
- Six countries remained below the baseline throughout the quarter: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary.
- The remaining four countries — Czechia, Cyprus, Slovenia and Sweden — showed mixed monthly patterns, alternating between months above and below the baseline (Figure 3).
In April 2026, the EU-wide excess mortality rate stood at 1.8%. Eleven countries recorded fewer deaths than expected: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden. The lowest rates were observed in Latvia (-13.3%), Romania (-11.5%), and Bulgaria (-11.1%), while the highest rates were recorded in Malta (27.6%), the Netherlands (13.1%), and Ireland (12.2%).
In May, the EU-wide excess mortality rate increased to 3.8%. Seven countries recorded fewer deaths than expected: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, and Romania. The lowest rates were observed in Lithuania (-11.1%), Bulgaria (-10.4%), and Latvia (-10.1%), while the highest rates were recorded in Luxembourg (18.0%), the Netherlands (15.7%), and Finland (13.3%).
In June, the EU-wide excess mortality rate increased further to 7.1%. Six of the 25 countries included in the comparison recorded fewer deaths than expected: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary. The lowest rates were observed in Latvia (-11.9%), Bulgaria (-10.1%), and Lithuania (-7.4%), while the highest rates were recorded in the Netherlands (22.4%), Belgium (18.9%), and Germany (16.8%) (Figure 3).
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
Deaths across the EU increased in Q2 2026 compared with the same period of 2025. In Q2 2026, the EU recorded an estimated 1.14 million deaths, around 0.9% more than in the same quarter of 2025, corresponding to approximately 10 000 additional deaths. Weekly deaths remained above the baseline in each week of Q2 2026 and registered similar values as in the corresponding weeks of 2025 until June (Figure 4).
Around 82 200 deaths were recorded in week 23 and 81 400 in week 24; these levels were 5.0% and 3.4% lower, respectively, than in the corresponding weeks of 2025. The number of deaths then increased to around 84 700 in week 25.
The increase was more pronounced in week 26, when around 100 300 deaths were recorded, up from 86 200 in the same week of the previous year. Week 26 marked the highest weekly number of deaths in Q2 2026, with deaths 18.4% higher than in week 25 and 16.4% higher than in the corresponding week of 2025.
Deaths increased compared with the same week of the previous year in 19 EU countries. The highest increases compared with week 26 of 2025 were observed in Belgium (+61.2%), France (+44.1%), and Germany (+34.5%).
Further releases
Starting from the data reference period of January 2025, this article and the related indicator will be updated quarterly, with Q3 2026 scheduled for publication by mid-December 2026.
For additional information on the COVID-19 pandemic see Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source data for graphs
The data displayed in these visualisations come from the following Eurostat datasets:
Information on data reliability, series breaks, differing definitions and flags can be consulted in the online datasets.
Data sources
The monthly excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in each period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred each month during the period 2016-2019. The European Union (EU) average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that there were fewer deaths than might be expected in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU countries on a voluntary basis since April 2020. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remains provisional and subject to revision with the next releases. All 27 EU countries provided weekly mortality data. Data received from EFTA and neighboring countries are not present in this article. Data for several countries were recalculated from 2024 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2025. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator is missing for June 2026 for Romania and Denmark. The EU aggregate for June 2026 was estimated using data from the last four available weeks (weeks 23, 24, 25 and 26 of 2026) for Romania and Denmark.
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes).
Explore further
Other articles
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Thematic section
Visualisation
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)