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Excess mortality by month (demo_mexrt)

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Compiling agency: Eurostat

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The monthly excess mortality indicator is based on the exceptional data collection on weekly deaths that Eurostat and the National Statistical Institutes set up, in April 2020, in order to support the policy and research efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With that data collection, Eurostat's target was to provide quickly statistics assessing the changing situation of the total number of deaths on a weekly basis, from early 2020 onwards.
 
The National Statistical Institutes transmit available data on total weekly deaths, classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS3 regions (NUTS2021) over the last 20 years, on a voluntary basis. The resulting online tables, and complementary metadata, are available in the folder Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk). 

Starting in 2025, the weekly deaths data will be collected on a quarterly basis. The next database updates are expected by mid-June 2025 (1st quarter), mid-September 2025 (2nd quarter), mid-December 2025 (3rd quarter), and mid-February 2026 (4th quarter).

In December 2020, Eurostat released the European Recovery Statistical Dashboard containing also indicators tracking economic and social developments, including health. In this context, “excess mortality” offers elements for monitoring and further analysing direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
The monthly excess mortality indicator draws attention to the magnitude of the crisis by providing a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths amongst the European countries and allowing for further analysis of its causes. The number of deaths from all causes is compared with the expected number of deaths during a certain period in the past (baseline period, 2016-2019).
 
The reasons that excess mortality may vary according to different phenomena are that the indicator is comparing the total number of deaths from all causes with the expected number of deaths during a certain period in the past (baseline). While a substantial increase largely coincides with a COVID-19 outbreak in each country, the indicator does not make a distinction between causes of death. Similarly, it does not take into account changes over time and differences between countries in terms of the size and age/sex structure of the population Statistics on excess deaths provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby covering not only deaths that are directly attributed to the virus but also those indirectly related to or even due to another reason. For example, In July 2022, several countries recorded unusually high numbers of excess deaths compared to the same month of 2020 and 2021, a situation probably connected not only to COVID-19 but also to the heatwaves that affected parts of Europe during the reference period.


In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that may be attributed to the overall crisis. It also accounts for the partial absence of deaths from other causes like accidents that did not occur due, for example, to the limitations in commuting or travel during the lockdown periods.

3 March 2025

“Death” means the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after life birth has taken place. Eurostat's recommendation for the definition of time of death is by ‘date of occurrence’, but data by ‘date of registration’ are also accepted.
 
“Excess mortality” is the rate of additional deaths in a month compared to the average number of deaths in the same month over a baseline period (2016-2019). The higher the value, the more additional deaths have occurred compared to the baseline. A negative value means that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
 

Excess mortality is calculated on a monthly basis. Eurostat uses calendar months and not week-based definition (e.g., the division of ISO-8601 quarters into 3 month-equivalent segments of 4-4-5 weeks). The monthly figures are either received from the countries, or derived from the weekly deaths data.

The number of deaths during a week is allocated to a specific calendar month proportionally to the number of days in that month. The proportional allocation assumes the same number of deaths in each day of a given week; consequently, there might be differences between this calculation and the actual monthly value. In some cases, when data for the most recent weeks are not available, Eurostat uses monthly estimates provided by the National Statistical Institutes.

Weekly deaths used for calculating excess mortality are adjusted for coverage (incompleteness). This adjustment is necessary because in some countries it might take more than one week for some of the deaths to be recorded. This means that the coverage of the weekly deaths data is not always 100%; in other words, a fraction of the deaths occurring in a given week may not be included in the official numbers transmitted to Eurostat. In principle, the coverage increases with the distance in time from the reporting period. Country-specific coverage information is available in section 13.1. Accuracy – overall.

Personal records.

Deaths occurring to the usual resident population in the territory of a country.

Country.

The reference period of excess mortality is the calendar month.

The table below offers a preview on data coverage for the most recent weeks for which data were received by Eurostat from the countries, where this information is available. For some countries information on data coverage is available by week, starting from the most recent week and going back to previous several weeks, while for others the information on coverage refers to all weekly deaths data available so far.

Data referring recent weeks may be under-reporting  the actual number of deaths and they are likely to be revised

 

  0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Most recent week minus 8 and more (W-8 and more)
BE 98.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
BG 98.00 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 99.00 99.80
CZ 97.50 98.75 99.25 99.25 99.40 99.50 99.50 99.50 100.00
DK 98.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
DE 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
EE* 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
IE 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
EL 87.00 96.00 96.00 96.00 96.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.60
ES 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
FR 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
HR 90.00 97.00 99.00 99.50 99.50 99.50 99.90 99.90 100.00
IT 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
CY 90.00 91.00 93.00 94.00 95.00 96.00 97.50 98.50 98.50
LV 98.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
LT 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.90 99.90 **
LU 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00
HU 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 99.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
MT* 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
NL 98.50 99.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
AT 97.20 97.60 97.80 97.90 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00
PL 94.56 95.54 95.73 96.08 98.32 99.86 99.90 99.76 **
PT 99.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
RO 71.43 98.00 98.25 98.50 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.25 100.00
SI 95.00 98.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00 99.00
SK 94.00 95.00 95.00 96.00 96.00 97.00 97.00 98.00 98.00
FI 65.30 91.80 95.50 97.00 97.50 98.00 98.50 98.70 100.00
SE 92.50 97.50 97.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
IS 99.30 99.30 99.30 99.30 99.30 99.30 99.50 99.60 99.70
LI 85.00 90.00 95.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
NO 96.70 98.20 98.80 98.90 99.00 99.10 99.20 99.50 99.80
CH 85.98 92.36 94.69 95.88 96.72 97.32 97.70 98.00 98.30
AL 90.00 98.00 98.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
ME 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 100.00
RS 98.25 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 98.50 100.00
AM 92.50 92.50 92.50 92.50 92.50 92.50 92.50 92.50 100.00
GE 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00 98.00

 
(*): assumed full completeness in lack of information from the country.
 (**): LT and PL coverage varies (see the respective sheets in attached file).


The date of the last update of the table is same as the date of the metadata update. 

More information is available in the metadata for Weekly Death statistics (demomwk).

Annexes:
Data coverage

Percentage rate (increase or decrease).

The monthly excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage rate of additional deaths in a month, compared to a baseline period. The baseline is given by average monthly deaths in the period 2016-2019.

The EU average baseline for 2006-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. 

The higher the value, the more additional deaths have occurred compared to the baseline. A negative value means that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.

The EU excess mortality indicator for November was calculated using the latest available provisional data from Malta and Romania. 

Data are collected by Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes.

Monthly.

The latest available weekly data are transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes to Eurostat every week. Data are processed by Eurostat as soon as they are transmitted, for a timely dissemination.

Eurostat’s recommendation for the definition of time of death is by ‘date of occurrence’, but data by ‘date of registration’ are accepted. More information available in the  metadata for Weekly Death statistics (demomwk).

Not available.