Economic development in enlargement countries

Data extracted in May 2026

Planned article update July 2027

Highlights

Türkiye's economy remained by far the largest among the enlargement countries. Its GDP at current market prices was €1.4 trillion in 2025, corresponding to 7.5% of that of the EU. Ukraine had the second largest economy, with a GDP of €176.3 billion in 2024 (2025 data not available).

Labour market conditions improved substantially across most enlargement countries between 2014 and 2024. Despite a temporary interruption during the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment more than halved in North Macedonia and Serbia, while Türkiye's unemployment rate dropped to 8.8% in 2024 after peaking at 13.7% in 2019.

Türkiye posted the highest FDI inflows among the enlargement countries, peaking at €7.8 billion in 2018. Serbia also strengthened its position, with inflows rising from €1.2 billion in 2014 to €4.3 billion in 2022, while North Macedonia exceeded €1 billion in 2024.

This article is part of an online publication and provides information on a range of economic statistics for the enlargement countries, compared with the corresponding data for the European Union (EU).

The data used in this article have all been submitted to and validated by Eurostat's subject matter units, following the same process as for the EU countries. For Georgia, data on the indicators presented in this article are not yet transmitted according to this process and are therefore not yet available. However, data on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are also presented in the Statistics Explained articles for European Neighbourhood Policy - East countries; these articles are based on annual indicators supplied by and under the responsibility of the national statistical authorities of each country.

The data managed by the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova does not include data from the Transnistrian region over which the government of Moldova does not exercise control. Since 2014, data for Ukraine generally exclude the illegally annexed Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol and the territories which are not under control of the Ukrainian government. For Ukraine official statistics for 2022-2025 were not fully produced due to the martial law. It will gradually be produced and disseminated as defined by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, taking into account the specific conditions of producing statistics during Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

This article presents key economic indicators for the period 2014–2025. Where a table or graph refers to a single reference year (for example, 2025), or where annual data are unavailable for certain countries, the most recent available data within the preceding five years are used. Especially when the end years are intended to be shown but the corresponding data series are not available, data from the closest possible years are presented instead (for example 2022–2024 instead of 2025).

The analyses cover gross domestic product (GDP) in euros and euros per capita at current market prices, along with growth in real GDP and the evolution of unemployment statistics. It also includes data on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), as well as foreign direct investments (FDI) flows from the balance of payments.

Gross domestic product at current market prices

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an aggregate measure of the size of an economy, based on its total final output. It is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period. GDP includes consumer spending, government spending, net exports, and total investments.

GDP at current market prices can be used to compare the size of different economies when expressed in the same currency (for example, the Euro). However, comparisons should consider population size, differences in the cost of living and the effects of inflation.

Gross domestic product at current market prices (nominal GDP) in 2025 places the European Union at 18 801.8 billion €, reflecting its substantially larger economic scale compared with the enlargement countries (Figure 1). Among the enlargement countries, Türkiye records the highest nominal GDP, at 1 406.2 billion €, followed by Ukraine with 176.3 billion € (2024 data), and Serbia with an estimated 88.7 billion €. Bosnia and Herzegovina reports 27.5 billion € (2024 data), ahead of Albania with 25.0 billion € (2024 provisional data) and Moldova with 18.0 billion € (provisional data), while North Macedonia reaches an estimated 16.9 billion €. Kosovo^[1] and Montenegro record the lowest levels, at 11.0 billion € and 8.2 billion € respectively, both based on provisional data.

The distribution highlights the considerable differences in aggregate economic size between the EU and the enlargement countries, as well as the variation within the enlargement region itself. Türkiye accounts for by far the largest economy among the enlargement countries, while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro remain comparatively small in nominal terms. The presence of estimates, provisional figures and 2024 data as the most recent available for some countries should also be considered when comparing the latest available values.

Gross domestic product per capita at current market prices

Analysis of nominal GDP per capita (per person) removes the effect of population size, facilitating comparisons between countries. Although GDP per capita at current market prices is influenced by price level changes (inflation), it provides a broad economic indicator that can be used for a basic assessment of living standards.

Figure 2 shows substantial disparities in GDP per capita between the EU and enlargement countries in 2025.

In 2025, the European Union records a GDP per capita of 41 620 €, substantially higher than the levels observed in the enlargement countries for which data are available.

Among the enlargement countries, Türkiye reports the highest GDP per capita, at 14 140 € (2024 data), followed closely by Serbia with an estimated 13 540 € and Montenegro with 13 110 € (provisional data). North Macedonia records 8 590 € (2024 estimated data), while Bosnia and Herzegovina reaches 8 050 € (2024 data). Albania reports the lowest value among the available countries, at 6 500 €, based on 2022 data instead of 2025. No data are available for Ukraine and Kosovo.

Overall, the data point to notable disparities in income levels across the enlargement countries, with Türkiye, Serbia and Montenegro at the higher end of the available range. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia remain at comparatively lower levels.

Growth in real gross domestic product

Real GDP, also called GDP at constant prices, measures the volume of output without considering changes in prices. Its annual growth rate shows the real change in economic activity and allows comparison of the dynamics of economic development over time and across countries. Figure 3 shows the real annual growth rates of GDP year-on-year, in other words the changes in constant price GDP compared with the year before, in the enlargement countries and in the EU for the years from 2021 to 2025.

The enlargement countries generally recorded stronger real GDP growth than the EU over the 2021-2025 period, reflecting a more dynamic post-pandemic recovery path. While growth in the EU moderated from 6.4% in 2021 to 0.4% in 2023 before recovering slightly to 1.5% in 2025, most enlargement countries maintained comparatively higher growth rates throughout the period.

Following the strong rebound in 2021, when Montenegro (13.0%), Türkiye (11.8%), Kosovo (10.7%) (provisional data), Albania (9.0%), Serbia (7.9%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (7.4%) recorded strong growth rates, economic growth gradually moderated across most enlargement countries. Nevertheless, growth generally remained above the EU average. In 2022 and 2023, Montenegro recorded the strongest growth rates among the enlargement countries, at 7.7% and 6.5% respectively. Türkiye also continued to record relatively strong growth (5.4% and 5.0% respectively). Kosovo maintained robust performance (4.3% and 4.1%).

Ukraine recorded a sharp contraction in 2022 (-28.8%), reflecting the impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, followed by a strong recovery in 2023 (5.5%) and continued to show growth in 2024 (3.2%).

In 2024, growth rates across the enlargement countries ranged from 3.0% in North Macedonia (provisional data) to 4.6% in Kosovo, remaining above the EU growth rate of 1.1%. Albania maintained stable growth at 4.0% (provisional data) and Serbia recorded 3.9% (provisional data). Türkiye’s growth moderated further to 3.3%, while Montenegro slowed to 3.2%, although both continued to outperform the EU average.

For 2025, available data point to continued economic expansion across the enlargement countries. Türkiye and Kosovo both recorded growth of 3.6%, followed closely by North Macedonia at an estimated 3.5%. Montenegro reported provisional growth of 2.7%, and Serbia an estimated 2.0%, all remaining above the EU growth rate of 1.5%. No 2025 data are available for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ukraine.

Unemployment rates

Unemployment rates are key indicators of economic performance, reflecting labour market conditions, household income capacity and social stability across countries and regions. Analysing unemployment trends helps to identify differences in economic resilience and adjustment across countries. Figure 4 presents the evolution of unemployment rates in the enlargement countries compared with those in the EU.

Among the enlargement countries, unemployment rates generally declined over the period 2014–2024, reflecting overall improvements in labour market conditions prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In several economies, though, this downward trend was temporarily interrupted during the pandemic period, with unemployment rates increasing in 2020 and/or 2021. Nevertheless, most countries resumed a declining trend thereafter. It should be noted that, for all participating countries, there was a break in the time series for unemployment rates in connection with the introduction of a new methodology for the EU Labour Force Survey from reference year 2021 on.

North Macedonia recorded a particularly strong and continuous reduction in unemployment throughout the entire period, including during the pandemic years, with the rate declining from 28.0% in 2014 to 17.3% in 2019 and further to 12.3% in 2024, representing an overall decrease of 15.7 percentage points.

Montenegro also experienced relatively high unemployment rates, overall with a moderately falling trend between 2014 (18.0%) and 2019 (15.2%). However, in 2020 there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, rising to 17.9%. More recent data are not available for Montenegro.

Serbia also experienced sustained improvements in unemployment throughout the period, despite a temporary increase to 11.2% in 2021 (break in time series in 2021). Overall, the unemployment rate declined from 19.4% in 2014 to 10.5% in 2019 and further to 8.6% in 2024, corresponding to a total reduction of 10.8 percentage points. In Türkiye, unemployment significantly increased from 10.9% in 2018 to 13.7% in 2019 and remained elevated in 2020–2021 (break in time series in 2021), before declining steadily to 8.8% in 2024.

For Bosnia and Herzegovina, data are available only from 2021 onwards. Over the 2021–2024 period, the unemployment rate decreased steadily from 17.4% to 12.6%, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points. Comparable data for Albania, Kosovo and Ukraine are not available in the dataset.

Despite these improvements, unemployment rates in most enlargement countries remained above the EU average in 2024.

The EU recorded a sustained improvement in labour market conditions over the period 2014–2024, with the unemployment rate declining from 10.9% in 2014 to 6.7% in 2019 and further to 5.9% in 2024, despite a temporary and small increase during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021 (break in time series in 2021).

Gross fixed capital formation

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) indicates how much of the value added in an economy is invested rather than consumed. It is considered an indicator of future business activity. In general, GFCF tends to increase in times of economic growth and business confidence. Conversely, it tends to decrease in case of economic uncertainty or recession.

GFCF as a percentage of GDP at current market prices in the period 2015 to 2025 is presented in Figure 5 for the enlargement countries, compared with the EU.

Across the enlargement countries, Türkiye and Kosovo registered the highest levels of gross fixed capital formation, peaking at 32.9% in both Türkiye (2023) and Kosovo (2021). In 2025, both maintained elevated investment levels of 30.6% and 32.4%, respectively, well above the EU average. Montenegro experienced pronounced fluctuations, increasing sharply from 20.7% in 2015 to 29.8% in 2018, before declining to 20.4% in 2023 and recovering moderately to 22.3% in 2025 (2025 provisional).

North Macedonia showed comparatively stable investment dynamics, declining from 23.8% in 2015 to 20.0% in 2018, followed by a gradual recovery to 24.7% in 2023 and 24.0% in 2025 (2024 provisional; 2025 estimated). Serbia recorded a sustained increase in investment from 16.8% in 2015 to 23.9% in 2022, before stabilising around 23% thereafter (2023–2024 provisional; 2025 estimated). Albania displayed moderate fluctuations, with investment declining from 26.1% in 2015 to 24.3% in 2023 before recovering slightly to 24.4% in 2024 (2024 provisional; 2025 not available). Bosnia and Herzegovina showed a generally upward trend, increasing from 21.4% in 2015 to 24.4% in 2024, although data for 2025 are not available. Moldova showed moderate fluctuations in gross fixed capital formation over the period. Investment peaked at 24.9% of GDP in 2020 before declining to 19.4% in 2023. It recovered to 22.0% in 2025 (provisional data), although it remained below the level recorded in 2015.

Ukraine had shown the lowest investment levels among the countries presented and the greatest volatility over the period. Gross fixed capital formation increased from 13.5% of GDP in 2015 to 17.6% in 2018–2019, before declining sharply to 11.9% in 2022 and partially recovering to 18.5% in 2024.

The EU gross fixed capital formation remained relatively stable over the period 2015–2025, fluctuating within a narrow range between 20.0% and 22.1% of GDP. Following a gradual increase from 20.0% in 2015 to 22.0% in 2019, investment levels remained broadly resilient during the pandemic period, standing at 21.9% in 2020 and 21.8% in 2021, before reaching 22.1% in 2023 and moderating slightly to 21.3% in 2025.

Foreign direct investment balance

Foreign direct investments (FDI) arises when a unit resident in one economy makes an investment that gives control or a significant degree of influence over the management of a company that is resident in another economy. FDI tends to promote stable economic links between economies through direct access for direct investors in home economies to production units in host economies. Within a proper policy framework, FDI assists host economies in developing local companies, promotes international trade through access to markets, and contributes to the transfer of technology and know-how. The coverage of FDI for analytical purposes includes income flows and financial transactions recorded in the direct investment functional category in the balance of payments. As FDI may reflect large investments in specific projects within a limited time frame, values can vary greatly from one year to another. One way of analysing FDI is to consider it according to the direction of the investment (inward – direct investment in the reporting economy; outward – direct investment made abroad by resident entities). This approach provides a clear understanding of an economy’s position as both a host and an investor. Figure 6 presents the net FDI, calculated as the balance between net inward and net outward direct investment cross-border transactions.

Over the period 2014–2023 (2024 data not available), the EU recorded predominantly net FDI outflows, with particularly large outflows observed in 2015 (-€178.2 billion), 2021 (-€407.6 billion) and 2022 (-€223.4 billion). Net inflows were recorded in 2020 (€151.2 billion), likely reflecting the exceptional economic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the scale of FDI transactions in the EU remained substantially larger than in the enlargement countries, underlining the EU’s role as a major global investor and host economy.

Among the enlargement countries, Türkiye recorded the highest net FDI inflows in absolute terms, reaching €7.8 billion in 2018 before declining to €5.6 billion in 2019 and dropping sharply to €422.0 million in 2020 during the pandemic period. Net inflows recovered thereafter to €3.1 billion in 2022 before moderating to €936.0 million in 2023 (2014–2017 and 2024 data not available; 2022–2023 Eurostat estimates).

Serbia also recorded comparatively high net FDI inflows, increasing from €1.2 billion in 2014 to €1.9 billion in 2016 and reaching €4.3 billion in 2022, indicating a substantial strengthening in foreign investment over the period (2017–2021 and 2023–2024 data not available). Albania maintained positive net inflows throughout the available period, rising from €862.3 million in 2020 to €1.4 billion in 2023 (2014–2019 and 2024 data not available).

North Macedonia displayed more moderate but increasing FDI inflows, rising from €154.7 million in 2020 to €1.0 billion in 2024, despite fluctuations in earlier years (2014–2015 and 2018–2019 data not available). Kosovo also recorded positive FDI inflows, increasing from €286.6 million in 2020 to €556.8 million in 2022 (2014, 2017–2019 and 2023–2024 data not available). Montenegro recorded net FDI inflows of €468.0 million in 2020, although comparable data for the remaining years are not available (2014–2019 and 2021–2024 data not available).

Comparable data for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine are not available.

Source data for tables and graphs

Economic developments in the enlargement countries: tables and figures

Data sources

All economic statistics in this article presented as monetary values are based on current price series, i.e. nominal values without adjustments for price changes, unless otherwise stated.

Data for the EU and the enlargement countries are compiled under European system of national and regional accounts (ESA 2010), the EU accounting framework for a systematic and detailed description of an economy. The structure of ESA 2010 is consistent with the international guidelines on national accounting as outlined in the United Nations' system of national accounts (the 2008 SNA). Eurostat issues manuals, handbooks, and other methodological guidance to support a harmonised implementation of ESA 2010.

The legal basis for ESA 2010 is Regulation (EU) No 549/2013 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the European Union, which defines a methodology (on common standards, definitions, classifications and accounting rules that shall be used for compiling accounts and tables on comparable bases and a programme of data transmission setting out the time limits for the EU countries to transmit to Eurostat the accounts and tables. It was amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/734].

So far, Eurostat published data on GDP and main components for 9 of the enlargement countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye and Ukraine.

Balance of payments (BoP) statistics are the central source for data on balance of trade in goods and services and on Foreign direct investment (FDI) transactions. BoP statistics are internationally compiled based on the methodology recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Manuals on Balance of Payments and International Investment Position. For the reference period the methodological framework prevailed in external sector statistics was set up in the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Sixth Edition (BPM6).

The IMF Statistics Department published the updated version of the Manual (BPM7) in March 2025. The BPM6 update is being coordinated with the updated version of the System of National Accounts (2025 SNA). At the moment it is foreseen that the new manuals will be implemented in the EU in 2029 or 2030.

The definitions of unemployment and the labour market used are based on international recommendations by the International Labour Organization (ILO). The concepts and definitions used in the European Union labour force survey (EU-LFS) follow the resolutions of the International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) organised every 5 years by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The unemployment rate is an important indicator with both social and economic dimensions. Increasing unemployment results in a loss of income for individuals, increased pressure with respect to government spending on social benefits and a reduction in tax revenue. From an economic perspective, unemployment may be viewed as unused labour capacity.

The main source for European labour force statistics is the European Union labour force survey (EU LFS). This household survey is carried out in all EU countries in accordance with European legislation and provides figures at least every quarter.

Among the enlargement countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Türkiye have implemented the EU-LFS instrument and conduct the labour force survey according to the same guidelines, methodology and standards as the EU countries.

Context

National accounts provide an internationally agreed standard for compiling measures of economic activity through a coherent, consistent and integrated set of macroeconomic accounts. These accounts record how economic activity is distributed among businesses, consumers, government and foreign countries, detailing key items such as production, consumption, savings and investment. The use of internationally accepted concepts and definitions permits an analysis of different economies, such as the interdependencies between the economies of the EU countries, or a comparison between the EU and non-EU countries.

Within the EU, multilateral economic surveillance was introduced through the stability and growth pact, which provides for the coordination of fiscal policies. The reformed Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which entered into force in April 2024 through Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 and related legislative acts, shifted EU fiscal surveillance towards a more country-specific framework focused on debt sustainability. Under the new rules, member states are required to submit medium-term fiscal-structural plans setting out expenditure paths and reforms aimed at placing public debt on a plausible downward trajectory.

Economic statistics is one of the cornerstones of global, regional and national governance, for example, to analyse national economies during global financial and economic crisis or to put in place EU initiatives such as the European semester or macroeconomic imbalance procedures (MIP).

While basic principles and institutional frameworks for producing statistics are already in place, the enlargement countries are expected to increase the volume and quality of their data progressively, and to transmit these data to Eurostat in the context of the EU enlargement process. EU standards in the field of statistics require the existence of a statistical infrastructure based on principles such as professional independence, impartiality, relevance, confidentiality of individual data and easy access to official statistics; they cover methodology, classifications and standards for production.

Eurostat assesses and supports the alignment of statistical production in the enlargement countries with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as statistical projects, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS).

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the enlargement countries is provided in the Statistics explained background article Enlargement policy and statistical cooperation.

Footnotes

This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. ↑