Excess mortality statistics
Data extracted on 09 July 2024
Planned article update: 16 August 2024
Highlights
In May 2024, excess mortality slightly increased in the EU. The indicator reached 1.6 %.
In May 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. The excess mortality rate was positive in 15 EU countries and negative in 11.
In May 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in Malta (14.6 %), the Netherlands (12.6 %) and Ireland (10.7 %).
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period.
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since May 2023.
Full article
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
In May 2024, excess mortality in the EU slightly increased to 1.6% % above the baseline. In comparison, the indicator was -0.6 % in April 2024 (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during May 2024, approximately 5 847 additional deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline). For comparison, in May 2023, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality stood at 3.6 % (11 831 additional deaths).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
In May 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 11 EU countries: the lowest rates were recorded in Bulgaria (-10.9 %), Latvia (-9.8 %), Lithuania (-7.2 %), Croatia (-6.0 %) and Slovakia (-4.9 %). On the other hand, 15 EU countries registered excess deaths: the highest rates were observed in Malta (14.6 %), the Netherlands (12.6 %), Ireland (10.7 %), Portugal (8.4 %) and Austria (7.3 %). For comparison, as presented in Table 1, 13 EU countries recorded excess deaths in April 2024, with the highest rates observed in Malta (17.9 %), the Netherlands (16.9 %), Ireland (12.0 %), Luxembourg (9.7 %) and Portugal (5.1 %).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
During the weeks of May 2024, there were approximately 5 847 additional deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline, with the highest number of additional deaths recorded in the third week of May 2024 (2 089). By contrast, during the weeks of January 2024, EU countries recorded around 15 000 additional deaths. This represents a significant decrease in weekly deaths between January 2024 and May 2024. Compared with the previous year, in May 2023, there were 11 831 additional deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries and the respective excess mortality indicator for the month of May 2024, as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.
- During the first week of May 2024 (week 18), Ireland recorded the highest excess mortality rate (18.6 %). The Netherlands and Luxembourg followed with rates of 17.6 % and 15.4 %, respectively.
- In the second week of May 2024 (week 19), Cyprus had the highest excess mortality rates among the EU countries with 18.3 %, followed by Portugal with 13.6 % and Malta with 11.8 %.
- During the third week of May 2024 (week 20), Luxembourg (19.2 %), Ireland (17.7 %) and Malta (17.0 %) recorded the highest excess mortality rates.
- In the fourth week of May 2024 (week 21), Malta registered the highest excess mortality rate (31.6 %), followed by Greece with 13.0 % and the Netherlands with 12.7 % additional deaths.
- During the last week of May 2024 (week 22), Malta continued to register the highest excess mortality rate (10.9 %), followed by Denmark (9.1 %) and Spain (8.7 %).
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
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Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.
Data from Ireland were not included in the first phase of the excess mortality release: official timely data were not available because deaths in Ireland can be registered up to three months after the date of death. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Ireland began to explore experimental ways of obtaining up-to-date mortality data.
Weekly deaths data for Romania for weeks 19-22 (May 2024) are not available. The EU excess mortality indicator and weekly deaths indicator for May 2024 were produced based on provisional data and the latest available weeks for Romania. For Czechia and Slovakia, the average of weeks 20 and 21 was used to calculate the EU aggregate for week 22 of 2024
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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See also
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisations
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time