Excess mortality statistics

Data extracted on 11 March 2024

Planned article update: 15 April 2024

Highlights

In January 2024, excess mortality in the EU decreased significantly to 3.6 % above the baseline, compared with 9.5 % in December 2023.

In January 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Croatia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Poland, Latvia and Czechia recorded no excess deaths.

In January 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in the Netherlands (15.3 %), Denmark (11.5 %) and Germany (9.9 %).

Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)

In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator takes the number of people who died from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.

This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Recovery Dashboard, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.

The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since January 2020.

Full article

Recent data on excess mortality in the EU

In January 2024, excess mortality in the EU significantly decreased to 3.6 % above the baseline compared with December 2023, when it stood at 9.5 % (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during January 2024, approximately 11 000 additional deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline). For comparison, in May 2023, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality stood at 3.6 % (11 831). The indicator was 7.9 % in May 2022 (25 989 additional deaths), 10.7 % in May 2021 (33 364 additional deaths) and 3.1 % in May 2020 (9 742 additional deaths). In January 2023, the excess mortality rate in the EU was 4.3 %.

Figure 1: EU excess mortality by month from January 2023 to January 2024 (% difference versus average monthly deaths in 2016-2019)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)

In January 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). Ten EU countries recorded no excess deaths: Romania (-16.7 %), Bulgaria (-14.2 %), Hungary (-8.6 %), Lithuania (-6.9 %), Croatia (-6.0 %), Luxembourg (-2.6 %), Slovakia (-2.5 %), Poland (-2.2 %), Latvia (-2.0 %) and Czechia (-0.5 %). Among the 17 EU countries that recorded excess deaths, the highest rates were observed in the Netherlands (15.3 %), Denmark (11.5 %) and Germany (9.9 %). These were followed by Estonia (9.8 %), Portugal (9.4 %), Malta (8.6 %) and Spain (7.1 %). For comparison, according to Table 1, 25 EU Member States recorded excess mortality in December 2023, with the highest rates observed in Slovenia (21.3 %), Austria (20.7 %), Estonia (20.0 %), followed by Germany (19.3 %), Denmark (19.0 %), the Netherlands (18.5 %) and Slovakia (17.1 %).

Figure 2: Monthly excess mortality in January 2024
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)

Table 1: Excess mortality indicator
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)

Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU

In the first four weeks of January 2024, there were 5 426 additional deaths in the EU compared to the 2016-2019 baseline. In contrast, during the first week of December 2023 (week 48), EU countries recorded 8 700 additional deaths. This represents a 37 % decrease in weekly deaths between December 2023 and January 2024. The highest number of deaths was recorded in the first week of January 2024, with 6 980 deaths. Compared to the previous year, in January 2023, there were 16 567 deaths in the EU. Most of these deaths were recorded during the first week of January 2023, with 13 173 deaths.

Figure 3: Deaths in the EU by week (thousands 2023-2024 compared to baseline 2016-2019)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)

During the first week of January 2024, Germany recorded the highest number of additional deaths (2 052). Spain and France followed with 1974 and 787 additional deaths respectively.

In the second week of January 2024, Germany, Spain and Portugal recorded the highest numbers of additional deaths. Germany had 1458 additional deaths, Spain - 1421 deaths, and Portugal - 499 additional deaths.

During the third week of January 2024, Germany registered 1949, France - 999 and Spain - 711 additional deaths.

In the fourth week of January 2024, Germany continued to be on the top among the EU countries with 1981 additional deaths, followed by France with 855 and the Netherlands with 558 additional deaths.

Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries for the entire January 2024 as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.

Table 2: Deaths by country and the most affected region in January 2024
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)

In the tool below, you may select the country you would like to analyse.

Further releases

Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.

Source data for tables and figures

Excess mortality data

Data sources

The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data from 2021 remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.

Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.

Data from Ireland were not included in the first phase of the excess mortality release: official timely data were not available because deaths in Ireland can be registered up to three months after the date of death. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Ireland began to explore experimental ways of obtaining up-to-date mortality data. At the end of April 2021, the CSO started publishing a time series from October 2019 until the most recent weeks, using death notices (see the CSO website). For the purpose of this release, Eurostat is comparing the new 2020-2021 web-scraped series with a 2016-2019 baseline built using official data. The CSO is periodically assessing the quality of these data.

Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted the by National Statistical Institutes in March 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].

Data for Romania for January 2024 are not available. The EU aggregate for January 2024 was produced based on provisional data and the average of the latest two available months for Romania.

The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death. However, it provides additional insight into the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European societies. It should be stressed again that while a substantial increase in excess mortality largely coincided with a COVID-19 outbreak in each country, the indicator did not make a distinction between causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. During the COVID-19 pandemic, statistics on excess deaths provided information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the pandemic, thereby covering not only deaths that were directly attributed to the virus but also those indirectly related to it. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captured COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that might have been attributed to the overall crisis situation. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due, for example, to restrictions on commuting or travel during the lockdown periods.

Context

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Recovery Dashboard. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a more stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.

Direct access to

Database

Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:

Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)

Mortality (demomwk), see:

Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)

Dedicated section

Methodology

Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)

Visualisations

Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time