Excess mortality statistics
Data extracted on 09 August 2024
Planned article update: 16 September 2024
Highlights
In June 2024, excess mortality slightly increased in the EU. The indicator reached 3.3%.
In June 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. The excess mortality rate was positive in 19 EU countries and negative in 8.
In June 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in Cyprus (28.9%), Ireland (15.3%) and the Netherlands (15.0%).
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period.
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since June 2023.
Full article
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
In June 2024, excess mortality in the EU slightly increased to 3.3% above the baseline. In comparison, the indicator was 1.7% in May 2024 (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during June 2024, approximately 11 500 additional deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline). For comparison, in May 2023, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality stood at 3.6% (11 831 additional deaths).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
In June 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 8 EU countries: the lowest rates were recorded in Bulgaria (-6.2%), Slovakia (-6.2%), Hungary (-5.3%), Latvia (-5.1%) and Italy (-4.4%). On the other hand, 19 EU countries registered excess deaths: the highest rates were observed in Cyprus (28.9%), Ireland (15.3%), the Netherlands (15.0%), Luxembourg (14.1%), Portugal (11.2%) and Malta (10.3%). For comparison, as presented in Table 1, 15 EU countries recorded excess deaths in May 2024, with the highest rates observed in Malta (15.8%), the Netherlands (13.0%), Ireland (10.7%) and Portugal (10.5%).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
In June 2024, there were approximately 11 500 additional deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline, as indicated above. Compared with the previous year, in June 2023, the situation was similar with about 11 800 additional deaths in the EU compared with the same baseline. Looking at the different weeks of the month the highest number of additional deaths was recorded in the third week of June 2024 (2 089). However, during each of the weeks of January 2024, EU countries recorded around 15 000 additional deaths. This represents a significant decrease in weekly deaths between January 2024 and June 2024.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Table 1 shows the respective excess mortality indicator while Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries for the month of June 2024, as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.
- During the first week of June 2024 (week 23), Cyprus recorded the highest excess mortality rate (31.2%). Malta and Portugal followed with rates of 19.3% and 18.9%, respectively.
- In the second week of June 2024 (week 24), Cyprus had the highest excess mortality rates among the EU countries with 53.1%, followed by Malta with 19.2% and the Netherlands with 16.3%.
- During the third week of June 2024 (week 25), Ireland (20.6%), the Netherlands (19.2%) and Estonia (16.8%) recorded the highest excess mortality rates.
- In the fourth week of June 2024 (week 26), Luxembourg registered the highest excess mortality rate (35.2%), followed by Ireland with 21.4% and Germany with 16.2% additional deaths.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
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Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.
Data from Ireland were not included in the first phase of the excess mortality release: official timely data were not available because deaths in Ireland can be registered up to three months after the date of death. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Ireland began to explore experimental ways of obtaining up-to-date mortality data.
Weekly deaths data for Romania, Sweden and Iceland for weeks 23-26 (June 2024) are not available. The EU excess mortality indicator and weekly deaths indicator for June 2024 were produced based on provisional data and the latest available weeks for Romania and Sweden.
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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See also
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisations
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time