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| 7th Joint EC/OECD Workshop on recent developments in Business and Consumer Surveys Paris, November 30, December 1, 2015 | Download | |
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| Welcome speeches |
Martine Durand (OECD), Björn Döhring (European Commission) |
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| Introduction |
Christian Gayer (European Commission), Roberto Astolfi (OECD) |
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| SESSION 1: APPLICATIONS OF SURVEY DATA |
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| - The predictive content of business survey indicators: evidence from SIGE | Tatiana CESARONI Bank of Italy (Italy) | Presentation (774 kB)
Paper (2 MB)
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| - International evidence on business cycles asymmetries using the OECD Composite Leading Indicators | Roberto ASTOLFI OECD | Presentation(2 MB)
Paper (2 MB)
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| - New uncertainty measures for the euro area using survey data | Andreas REUTER European Commission | Presentation(465 kB)
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| - The effect of policy uncertainty on investment plans. Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far–reaching referendum in Switzerland | Klaus ABBERGER KOF (Switzerland) | Presentation(539 kB)
Paper (650 kB)
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| - On the measurement and forecasting of business cycles and growth cycles in the global economy | Ataman OZYILDIRIM Conference Board (United States) | Presentation(3 MB)
Paper (160 kB)
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| - Are indicators of business tendency survey useful to measure cyclical development of the Russian economy? | Tamara LIPKIND HSE (Russian Federation) | Presentation(626 kB)
Paper (623 kB)
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| SESSION 2: KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE ON METHODOLOGY AND HARMONISATION |
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| - Harmonisation of the breakdown by occupation in the consumer survey | Roberta FRIZ European Commission | Presentation(357 kB)
Background note (196 kB)
Paper (90 kB)
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| - EU CBS in Adria Region | Srdjan DUMICIC IPSOS (Croatia) | Presentation(731 kB)
Paper (77 kB)
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| - Detecting outliers in weighted univariate survey data | Anna Pauliina SANDQVIST KOF (Switzerland) | Presentation(175 kB)
Paper (356 kB)
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| - Response rates on various request and response channels | Eric SLENTØ Statistics Denmark (Denmark) | Presentation(495 kB)
Paper (552 kB)
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| - The implications of Big Data for BTS and COS | George KERSHOFF BER (South Africa) | Presentation(842 kB)
Paper (924 kB)
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| - University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers: measuring and interpreting economic expectations | Richard CURTIN University of Michigan (United States) | Presentation(356 kB)
Paper (136 kB)
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| SESSION 3: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HARD DATA AND QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA |
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| - The performance of the CBI composite growth Indicator | Daniel LEE CBI (United Kingdom) | Presentation(417 kB)
Paper (400 kB)
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| - GKI retail trade model | Mark TATRAI GKI (Hungary) | Presentation(2 MB)
Paper (258 kB)
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| - Using business and consumer survey results for flash estimates in Slovakia (An econometric approach) | Jana JURIOVA INFOSTAT (Slovak Republic) | Presentation(874 kB)
Paper (648 kB)
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| - Does the Phillips curve hold for consumer survey data? | Roberta FRIZ European Commission | Presentation(565 kB)
Paper (2 MB)
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| - Forecasting with Dynamic Factor Models during and after the Great Recession | Pierre–Alain PIONNIER OECD | Presentation(403 kB)
Paper (74 kB)
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| - Consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: an evaluation after 12 years | Aidan MEYLER, Iskra PAVLOVA ECB, Roberta FRIZ EC | Presentation(2 MB)
Paper (206 kB)
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| - Micro Information Dynamics: decomposing the forecasting power of aggregate indicators | Klaus WOHLRABE IFO (Germany) | Presentation(483 kB)
Paper (302 kB)
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| Concluding remarks and prospects | OECD / EC |
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In case of problems with downloading these files, you can contact us.
| EC Workshop on recent developments in Business and Consumer Surveys - Brussels, 13-14 November 2014 | Download | |
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| Welcome and introduction | Elena Flores European Commission |
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| Survey methodology: online surveys, mixed-mode surveys and other initiatives to raise response rates |
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| - Introduction | Christian Gayer European Commission |
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| - Online surveys for business tendency in Slovenia | Laura Šuštar Kožuh SI-SORS | Presentation (377 kB)
Paper  (17 kB)
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| - Mixed-mode surveys (phone and online), results from pilot studies in the Finnish consumer survey | Pertti Kangassalo FI-STAT | Presentation(200 kB)
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| - Considerations around switching from telephone to online survey methodology | Karsten Shaw UK-GfK | Presentation(10 MB)
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| - From postal surveys to electronic data capture: building higher response rates | Christopher Taylor UK-CBI | Presentation(7 MB)
Abstract (16 kB)
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| Harmonisation issues I: statistical units and business registers |
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| - Ongoing review of statistical units and business registers (FRIBS): overview and time schedule | Hans-Eduard Hauser / Thomas Werkhoven European Commission-ESTAT | Presentation(2 MB)
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| - Likely impact of FRIBS on the implementation of the BCS Programme | Katarzyna Walkowska PL-STAT | Presentation(80 kB)
Abstract (5 kB)
Paper (94 kB) |
| Harmonisation issues II: surveys of surveys |
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| - Survey of surveys in the French manufacturing survey | Catherine Renne FR-INSEE | Presentation(405 kB)
Abstract (7 kB) |
| - Survey of surveys in the British distributive trades survey | Jonathan Wood UK-CBI | Presentation(3 MB)
Abstract (20 kB)
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| - Finding patterns in response behaviour of business tendency surveys | Matthias Bannert CH-KOF | Presentation(187 kB)
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| Topical applications of survey data – 1st part | Moderator: Björn Döhring European Commission |
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| - A new indicator on euro area capacity utilisation in services | Iskra Pavlova ECB, DG Statistics | Presentation(286 kB)
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| - Evaluation of the forecast content of the bi-annual investment survey | Alessandro Girardi European Commission | Presentation(929 kB)
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| - Use and usefulness of the bi-annual investment survey | Desislava Rusinova ECB, DG Economics | Presentation(3 MB)
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| Financial management of grant agreements |
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| - Working together to speed up payments | Murielle Noncle European Commission | Presentation(2 MB)
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| Harmonisation issues III: follow-up on the 2013 task force 'Quality of BCS data' |
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| - Overview of recently implemented changes to national questionnaires and other recent harmonisation steps | Andreas Reuter European Commission | Presentation(2 MB)
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| - Impact of updating weights on tracking performance and volatility (INDU and BUIL) | Alessandra Righi IT-ISTAT | Presentation(174 kB)
Abstract (27 kB)
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| - The signal and the noise – an analysis of irregular fluctuations in business surveys | Werner Hölzl AT-Wifo | Presentation(456 kB)
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| - Metadata to be provided monthly per breakdown for business surveys and implementation of socio-economic breakdowns in the consumer survey | Roberta Friz European Commission | Presentation(330 kB)
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| Topical applications of survey data – 2nd part | Moderator: Roberto Astolfi OECD |
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| - The role of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP growth | Christian Gayer European Commission | Presentation(661 kB)
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| - Measuring uncertainty – including survey measures | Arne Gieseck ECB, DG Economics | Presentation(3 MB)
Background document (2 MB) |
| - Measuring uncertainty in the financial sector using the financial services survey | Aytaç Erdogan TR-CBRT | Presentation(771 kB)
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| - Assessment of trends and characteristics of survey data in Croatia and Candidate Countries | Andreas Reuter European Commission | Presentation(473 kB)
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| - Enhancing the performance of Croatian survey indicators | Srdjan Dumicic HR-IPSOS | Presentation(3 MB)
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| Concluding remarks and prospects | DG ECFIN |
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In case of problems with downloading these files, you can contact us.
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Joint EU/OECD workshop on recent developments in business and consumer surveys 14-15 November 2013
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| Welcome and introduction DG ECFIN will present an overview of recent developments in the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS). The OECD will present an overview of on-going business in the field of leading indicators and tendency surveys Elena Flores (European Commission), Nadim Ahmad (OECD) |
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Methodological session I: Task Force & UN Handbook on conduct of surveys – sampling frames, methods and design
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Methodological session I: Task Force & UN Handbook on conduct of surveys – sampling frames, methods and design [contd.]
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Methodological session II: Task Force & UN Handbook on conduct of surveys – response rates, weighting and accuracy
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Methodological session II: Task Force & UN Handbook on conduct of surveys - response rates, weighting and accuracy [contd.]
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Topical applications of survey data – 1st part
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Topical applications of survey data – 2nd part
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Concluding remarks and prospects (DG ECFIN and OECD) |
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EU sessions
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Follow-up on methodological task force
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Harmonisation of business and consumer surveys
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Topical applications of survey data
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Concluding remarks and prospects (DG ECFIN)
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In case of problems with downloading these files, you can contact us.
| EC Workshop on recent developments in Business and Consumer Surveys - Brussels, 15-16 November 2012 | Download | ||
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| Background paper | Presentation | ||
| Recent and future developments in the BCS programme | E. Flores European Commission - ECFIN |
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| Harmonisation of business and consumer surveys | R. Friz European Commission - ECFIN |
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| New question on capacity utilisation in the service sector |
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| - state of play, analysis of results from July 2011 to October 2012 | M. Neagu European Commission - ECFIN | (940 kB) |
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| - interpreting the CBI Service Sector Survey | J. Wood CBI - UK |
| (2 MB) |
| On-going international work and prospects in the field of the BCS |
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| - OECD recent developments | M. Gamba OECD | (442 kB) |
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| - Eurostat recent developments | F. Moauro ESTAT |  (119 kB) | (3 MB) |
| Topical applications of survey data |
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| - financial distress in households as a timely indicator of social trends | P. Minty European Commission - EMPL | (828 kB) |
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| - indicator on euro-area industrial new orders | H. Dieden ECB | (354 kB) |
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| - are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models? | M. Bovi ISTAT - IT | (312 kB) | (2 MB) |
| - micro information dynamics. Decomposing the forecasting power of aggregate indicators | K. Wohlrabe IFO - DE | (383 kB) |
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| - a dynamic factor model to assess the real time state of Spanish industry using confidence indicators | A. Cuevas MITYC - ES | (3 MB) |
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| - using European Commission survey data to analyse consumer inflation expectations and perceptions in Poland | T. Łyziak National Bank of Poland - PL | (203 kB) | (397 kB) |
| - using BCS data for tracking q-o-q GDP growth | A. Reuter European Commission - ECFIN | (3 MB) |
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| - Business Cycle tracer revisited | E. Slentø Statistics Denmark | (535 kB) |
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Assessment of the quality and reliability of survey data | |||
| - a word on metadata sheets and observed heterogeneity in ad-hoc quality indicators of BCS data across countries | C. Gayer European Commission - ECFIN |  (403 kB) |
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| - are there differences in data trends and volality between SME's and large enterprises? | S. Villaume INSEE - FR | (203 kB) | (584 kB) |
| - measuring sampling error in business surveys | C. Renne INSEE - FR | (398 kB) |
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| Financial services sector survey (FSSS) | |||
| - analysis of the FSSS results at country level | J. Wiercx GfK - BE | (2 MB) |
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| - making use of the financial survey in Commission policy analysis | S. Lindén European Commission - ECFIN | (2 MB) |
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In case of problems with downloading these files, you can contact us.
| Joint EC-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 17-18 November 2011 | Download | ||
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| PPT | |||
| Recent and future developments in the BCS programme | R. Felke European Commission |
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| NACE rev2 changeover: follow-up | A. D'Elia European Commission |
|  (104 kB) |
| Results from the July and October surveys | R. Friz European Commission |
| (109 kB) |
| First assessment of the Italian results | M. Malgarini ISTAT - Italy |
| (740 kB) |
| Results of survey of the surveys | R. Friz European Commission |
| (167 kB) |
| Survey of the survey in the retail and wholesales trade | K. Abberger Ifo - Germany |
| (746 kB) |
| A Brief History of CBI Answering Practices Surveys | J. Wood CBI - UK |
| (2 MB) |
| Results of the evaluation | C. Wilkinson GHK |
| (213 kB) |
| User point of view | D. Schackis ECB |
| (141 kB) |
| PMI versus ESI - comparative analysis | C. Dreger DIW |
| (40 kB) |
| EC Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 15-16 November 2010 | Download | ||
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| PPT | |||
| Overview of recent developments in the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys | R. Felke European Commission |
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| OECD plans and prospects | G. Gyomai OECD |
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| Modern tools for business cycle analysis: the lessons from global economic crisis | F. Moauro Eurostat |
| (116 kB) |
| Implementation of NACE rev. 2 - State of play and DG ECFIN's strategy | A. D'Elia European Commission |
| (191 kB) |
| Implementation of NACE rev. 2 - Importance of backcast series for the ECB | H. Dieden ECB |
| (119 kB) |
| Harmonisation of business and consumer surveys | R. Friz European Commission |
| (118 kB) |
| The information content of capacity utilisation rates for output gap estimates | J. Sturm KOF | (229 kB) | (499 kB) |
| The effect of seasonal adjustment on dating turning points | F. Moauro Eurostat |
| (3 MB) |
| Euro-area GDP forecasting using large survey datasets. A random forest approach | O. Biau European Commission | (183 kB) | (202 kB) |
| Do households anchor their inflation expectations? Evidence from a quantitative survey on Italian consumers | M. Malgarini ISAE | (245 kB) | (124 kB) |
| Presentation of the latest evaluation of the quantitative questions | R. Friz European Commission |
| (149 kB) |
| Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise? | S. Lui NIESR | | (234 kB) |
| Behaviour models for manufacturing firms: an analysis based on ISAE survey data | M. Malgarini ISAE | (159 kB) | (104 kB) |
| Extended use of BCS data by Statistics Netherlands | W. Jonkers CBS | (2 MB) | (127 kB) |
| Constructing a conditional GDP fan chart with an application to french business survey data | M. Cornec INSEE | (495 kB) | (3 MB) |
| Changes in the budgetary framework and financial reporting requirements introduced in the new call for proposal | Y. Dejaegere INSEE |
| (83 kB) |
| EC Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 14 October 2009 | Download | ||
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| PPT | |||
| Implementation of NACE Rev. 2 - results from consultations | Reuben Borg European Commission | (70 kB) |
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| - New Excel sheets for transmission of data | François Charbonnier European Commission | (109 kB) |
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| - The impact of the new industrial classification on survey results: first evidence from a back-casting exercise based on the construction sector survey | Marco Malgarini ISAE | (282 kB) |
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| Task Force on Ownership and publication of survey data | Angela D'Elia and Christopher Smyth European Commission | (117 kB) |
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| - Access to data by researchers | Philippe Scherrer INSEE | (173 kB) |
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| - Access to data by commercial distributors | Klaus Hilbinger GfK Germany | (147 kB) |
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| Task force on advance release of consumer survey - results of test period | Olivier Biau and Roberta Friz European Commission | (114 kB) |
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| Use of survey data: Recent applications by DG ECFIN and partner institutes - Identifying turning points for the euro area GDP growth cycle | Olivier Biau European Commission | (120 kB) |
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| - Non linear models to better forecast industrial production | Meriam Barhoumi INSEE | (225 kB) |
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| - Latest Development of Composite Indicators in the Czech Republic | Marie Hormannova CZSO | (420 kB) |
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| - Use of BTS results for forecasting industry production in Slovakia | Jana Juriov� Infostat SK |  (147 kB) |
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| Task Force on capacity utilisation | Roberta Friz and Olivier Biau European commission | (42 kB) |
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| - Presentation of test questions | Aggelos Tsakanikas IOBE | (136 kB) |
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| - Presentation of test questions | Dorothee Ast INSEE | (95 kB) |
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(See the login informations as provided by mail).
| EC Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 10-11 November 2008 | Download | ||
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| PPT | |||
| Issues related to the 2007-08 and 2008-09 cycle | Gabriele Giudice EC-ECFIN | ||
| Ownership and publication of survey data | Reuben Borg EC-ECFIN | ||
| Flash estimates/advanced releases of final survey results | Gabriele Giudice, Andreas Jonsson EC-ECFIN | ||
| Flash estimates/advanced releases of final survey results | Alexander Makaronidis EC-ESTAT | ||
| Issues related to the 2009-10 cycle | Gabriele Giudice EC-ECFIN | ||
| Business Cycle stylised facts: new evidence or euro are using business survey data | Marco Malgarini ISAE | (536 kB)
| (212 kB) |
| Two new monthly composite indicators for the whole French economy; a business climate indicator and a turning point indicator | Christelle Minodier INSEE | (946 kB)(315 kB) | (555 kB) |
| The Best Consumer Confidence Indicator There Is | Andreas Jonsson, Staffan Lind�n EC-ECFIN | (183 kB) | (125 kB) |
| Economic versus Psychological forecasting. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys | Maurizio Bovi ISAE | (297 kB) |
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| Using flexible contracts in Italian firms: an analysis based on survey data | Massimo Mancini ISAE | (122 kB) |
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| Managers� selling price expectations | Roberta Friz EC-ECFIN | (50 kB) | (132 kB) |
| OECD's composite leading indicators, de-trending methods� real time characteristics, and upcoming changes in the CLI system | Gyorgy Gyomai OECD | (666 kB)(2 MB) | (263 kB) |
| Answering practices in the CBI Industrial Trends Survey � new data and new questions {survey conducted April 2008} | Jonathan Wood CBI | (333 kB) | (281 kB) |
| Implementing the Consumer Survey in Turkey | Elif Pars GfK Turkey | (855 kB) |
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| Harmonisation of BCS | Andreas Jonsson EC-ECFIN | ||
| Implementation of NACE 2.0 | Reuben Borg EC-ECFIN | ||
| Adaptation of procedures to the new NACE | Jos� Manuel Almendros MITYC | (24 kB) | (93 kB) |
| Quantitative inflation opinions | Staffan Lind�n EC-ECFIN | ||
| Surveying investments | R. Friz EC-ECFIN | ||
download the full set of documents available for the EC 2007 Workshop
(5 MB)
or select each file individually hereafter
| EC Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 14 November 2007 | Download | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PPT | |||
| Harmonisation of business and consumer surveys: State of play | N. Darnaut EC-ECFIN | (96 kB) |
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| The EU survey in the financial services sector | S. Lind�n EC-ECFIN | (94 kB) |
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| Implementation of NACE Rev. 2 in BCS | P. Scherrer - C. Minodier INSEE France | (190 kB) | (223 kB) |
| Producing historical time series in NACE Rev. 2 for business surveys | S. Vergouw Statistics Netherlands | (193 kB)
(235 kB) | (79 kB) |
| Impact of the implementation of NACE Rev. 2 on sample design | M. Hormannova Czech Statistical Office | (384 kB) |
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| Quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of Italian consumers | M. Malgarini EC-ECFIN | (329 kB) | (193 kB) |
| Laboratory test of survey questions on perceived and expected price development | G. Buiten Statistics Netherlands | (354 kB) | (64 kB) |
| Test of alternative wording of the questions | K. Hilbinger Gfk Germany | (338 kB) |
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| Inflation perceptions: A cross-country analysis | R. Friz EC-ECFIN | (291 kB) |
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| Employment expectations in the euro area | A. Jonsson EC-ECFIN | (291 kB) | (192 kB) |
| The services survey in Slovakia | E. Holickova SOSR Slovakia | (83 kB) | (109 kB) |
| Implementation of the new business tendency survey | D. Tali CBRT Turkey | (323 kB) | (770 kB) |
download the full set of documents available for the EC 2006 Workshop(7 MB)
or select each file individually hereafter
All files are in PDF format (size ranges from 60kb to 950 kb)
| EC Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys Brussels, 20-21 November 2006 | Download | ||
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| PPT | |||
| Forthcoming call for proposals: introduction | N. Darnaut EC-ECFIN | (83 kB) |
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| Business and consumer surveys: regulatory financial, and contractual aspects | D. Pullinger EC-ECFIN | (110 kB) |
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| The revised classification of economic activities NACE Rev. 2 and its implication for business surveys | A. Zopp� EC-Eurostat | (164 kB) | (270 kB) |
| Coverage of the services sector in short-term statistics | B. Newson EC-Eurostat | (161 kB) | (71 kB) |
| Pilot phase of the EU-wide business survey in the financial service sector | O. Henry-Biabaud, R. Spadaro IPSOS Belgium | (103 kB) | (676 kB) |
| Dynamic factor models for survey-based confidence indicators | M. Marcellino Universit� Bocconi Milano | (423 kB) | (52 kB) |
| A monthly indicator of the business climate in the French service industry | P. Scherrer INSEE France | (490 kB) | (468 kB) |
| Perceptions of competitiveness in euro-area manufacturing: shedding some light on competitive differences among euro-area countries? | A. Jonsson EC-ECFIN | (287 kB) | (143 kB) |
| Convergence of business cycles in the euro area: further evidence from survey data | C. Gayer EC-ECFIN | (120 kB) |
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| Impact of unexpected oil-price changes and of large changes in the euro-dollar exchange rate on confidence | S. Lind�n EC-ECFIN | (119 kB) |
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| BTS and development of confidence indicators | M. Hormannova Czech Statistical Office | (359 kB) | (496 kB) |
| Economic sentiment indicator and confidence indicator in services in the new weight system | D. Blahova, E. Holickova SOSR Slovakia | (281 kB) | (796 kB) |
| The habits of respondents, their opinions on business surveys and the reasons for non-responding | A. Munk�csy, R. Petz GKI CO. Hungary | (199 kB) | (245 kB) |
| Real sector confidence index from the business tendency survey of CBRT | E. Oral, S.�. Tuncel CBRT Turkey | (340 kB) | (270 kB) |
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