As people become more aware of the possible impacts of climate change on infrastructure, business sectors and well-being, demand for climate information services is increasing. Climate services coordinated at an international level are particularly useful as they use consistent, integrated data across very large areas and have better capacity than a patchwork of smaller services.

To investigate modelling and communication strategies for a future Europe-wide climate service, the ECLISE project developed 26 local services around Europe charged with helping users prepare for the impacts of climate change in their own regions. Each service has developed different ways of using and presenting climate data, giving insight to the researchers on what approaches might work best for users.

“The data on climate change is impossible to analyse by non-scientific users – making it accessible was our main work,” explains project coordinator Roeland van Oss, previously of project leader, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Based in regions in Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom, the EU-funded project developed each service with its likely users, such as farming associations or water companies, helping them to plan for the typical challenges that Europe expects climate change to create. 

“We focused on rising sea levels and storm surges in coastal areas, on flood risks and temperature impacts on urban infrastructure, on flood and drought planning in rural areas and on impacts on renewable energy.” says van Oss.

The project team found that users wanted predictions of localised events such as heat-waves rather than of long-term changes on very large scales. Information on weather factors such as temperature, rainfall and wind was particularly in demand, says van Oss. So the project adapted its climate models to be shorter-term and more localised – more like weather models – providing a possible template for future services.

In contrast, the researchers found that there was no single best way to present the models’ results. Because some users have more experience of using climate data than others, or use it in more sophisticated ways, climate services have to present information in line with their needs and understanding, whether in the form of simple graphs or full data sets for computer models. 

The team identified further possible features to adopt or avoid in a pan-European service by comparing existing climate services in Europe and climate models worldwide. In particular, they found that models that predict changes at scales down to 10km2 or less are particularly appropriate for climate studies for local stakeholders.

Learning by doing

An important part of ECLISE’s approach to identifying good practice for climate services was “learning by doing”. Rather than imposing a top-down theoretical model, each local service was a case study in user-led development.

Possible climate service users, brought into ECLISE by local scientists and institutions, specified what they would require from a local service. The project’s researchers then developed climate models and user software for each service, which the stakeholders tested to make sure they matched their needs.

To maintain high technical standards, services used input from world-leading climate research institutes, climate models from the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and expert advisors. Because the 11-member ECLISE consortium includes some of the universities operating the IPCC models, the project was able to adapt these models quickly, cutting service development time.

Van Oss feels it is beneficial to involve users in climate service studies right from the planning stage, and even give them leadership of future similar projects. He says that this can allow researchers to better understand users’ limitations or uncertainties and can create trust in the research relationship: “Services have to be credible and legitimate, users need support and engagement and services have to change with users’ needs over time.”

He sees ECLISE’s case-study approach as potentially useful for further development of a European climate service: “There are very many possible users of climate information, such as the energy and financial sectors, and EU-scale users.”  

He also predicts that data generated by the project could add to wider climate research. “This kind of work is continuing with the COPERNICUS initiative and is a high priority for the European Commission.”