The FUME project analysed the factors that influence the likelihood of forest fires in a bid to understand how this risk is likely to evolve in the coming decades. It looked into ways of adapting to these changing conditions in terms of managing the hazard and protecting or restoring landscapes, and it also assessed the implications for society.

The team focused on southern Europe, although the researchers also analysed forest fires in other parts of the world. A detailed publication presents the project’s findings and highlights take-home messages for policy- and decision-makers.

Sparks of insight

The risk and severity of forest fires depend on a variety of factors — such as the likelihood of ignition, the type of vegetation, and the weather. “Forest fires are the result of what you have in the landscape and of the weather conditions when an ignition occurs,” says project coordinator José Manuel Moreno Rodriguez of the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha in Spain. “What you have in the landscape, i.e. the vegetation and consequently the fuel, is the result of the climate, but of course also of land use and land cover over time.”

FUME studied these socio-economic drivers of forest fires as well as the impact of climate across several decades. The team then used its findings to model the possible evolution of the risk in the EU. Further work explored how management strategies would have to adjust in view of the changing conditions, which could include increasingly frequent extreme weather events.

Worse conditions equal higher risks

It stands to reason that the likelihood of ignitions is a key consideration when it comes to fire risks. “This depends on people’s attitudes and actions, as well as chance,” says Moreno. However, there is a spatial dimension to this particular aspect: many ignitions occur near densely populated areas, in the so-called rural-urban interface.

This interface is projected to expand, and consequently the number of fires could rise unless effective strategies are found to address this added risk. “There is capacity to modify these patterns by working on people’s behaviours,” Moreno notes.

Climate change, with potentially higher temperatures and the possibility of droughts, also plays a key role in the evolution of the risk. “Conditions are going to worsen, and the time of the year where fires can easily start is going to get longer,” says Moreno. “That means that, overall, the risk of fire could increase, if the same patterns of ignitions continue. And if the conditions are worse, the fires that do start will be larger.”

Think climate change

Safety habits and the changing climate are, of course, not the only factors at play. There are many other aspects to consider, such as the type of vegetation, and the effectiveness of prevention measures and fire-fighting interventions. However, the FUME researchers have identified climate change and the growing rural-urban interface as two of key trends that fire management strategies must take into account.

And among them, climate change tops the list. “Our main recommendation is that climate change cannot be disregarded.” Moreno notes. “At the moment, it is not necessarily being considered.”

Forest management strategies, he explains, cover a temporal scope of 30 or 40 years, and there will be a certain degree of climate change throughout this period regardless of any mitigation efforts. “We have a window that very much is fixed, with a climate that is not the climate of the past,” he concludes. “So when you look at the future, you need to look at it with a different eye.”