An ageing population and the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels are just two key factors that will shape Europe’s job market over the coming few years, according to the ground-breaking EU-funded NEUJOBS project. A first volume of key policy findings has recently been published, while a large network of experts has been established to share knowledge and best practice.

“NEUJOBS matters because it addresses practical issues,” says project coordinator Miroslav Beblavy from the Centre for European Policy Studies in Belgium. “Will there be enough people to take care of our parents? Will oil prices be too high to allow us to drive to work? While this project has specifically targeted policy-makers at both national and European level, one cannot deny that a better-informed public will also take better decisions, and this is a vital component of the democratic process.”

The four-year project, which was formally completed in January 2015, coordinated numerous EU-wide studies which resulted in the publication of more than 100 academic papers. Dozens of dissemination events were organised in Brussels and in several EU capitals to share recommendations with people who can effect change, including government ministers and NGOs.  

Finding patterns to predict change

Understanding Europe’s evolving labour market by examining every possible variable, from demographic change and demand for new skills to external economic pressures, has been the project’s key objective. “Social, economic and technological change will continue to profoundly influence the shape of the European job market,” says Beblavy. “Understanding the dynamics of these changes – and identifying possible future scenarios – will enable decision-makers to put in place policies that ensure a functioning labour market built for the 21^st century.”

The most salient point is that future employment policies must adapt to take into account an ageing population. By 2025, more than 20% of Europeans will be 65 or over, with a particularly rapid increase in numbers of over-80s. “Even under optimistic scenarios, most European countries will see their working-age population shrink,” says Beblavy. “By 2030, the European labour force will number between 279 and 302 million workers.”

This demographic change will increase the burden on those of working age to provide for increased social expenditure. Furthermore, health systems will need to adapt so they can provide adequate care and remain financially sustainable. Other social issues, like the inclusion of disadvantaged groups such as the Roma, must be addressed, while education must correspond to – and anticipate – labour market needs.

Providing policy guidance

“Ultimately, these findings are targeted at policy-makers at both national and EU level,” says Beblavy. “The national level because this is where decisions regarding welfare provision and labour market regulations are taken, and EU-level because one cannot understand key drivers of change without taking a comparative view.”

All social and economic change requires an appropriate policy response. Given the complexity of socio-economic forces involved, and the importance of a healthy labour market to the welfare of every citizen in Europe, the findings of the NEUJOBS project could play a vital role in guiding policy-makers towards a prosperous and sustainable future for all.