Statistics Explained

Eurostatistics - data for short-term economic analysis


Latest macroeconomic developments

Data extracted on 17 November 2022

Planned article update: 19 December 2022

Highlights


GDP continues its moderate growth, together with industrial production, while inflation rises to a new record high level

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This monthly article gives a picture of the macroeconomic situation in the euro area, European Union, and Member States, showing the relevant indicators of production, demand, labour and prices based on Principal European Economic Indicators.

It is complemented by a visualisation tool (click on the picture above) offering additional indicators and interactive graphs linked to source data. Looking for the freshest information? You can find real-time data as graphs and tables in the Euro indicators dashboard with advanced functionalities to explore and download them.

Based on the figures available in November 2022, the economic situation in the euro area and the European Union (EU) is characterized by the following elements:

  • GDP continues to moderately grow in the third quarter,
  • a persistent increase of inflation driven mainly by high energy and food prices,
  • an increase of industrial production in September, although at a slower pace,
  • a decrease of import prices for the euro area, and a slowdown in growth for the industrial producer prices,
  • further weakening economic sentiment, with marked deteriorations in services and industry.


Both the euro area and the EU economies continue to grow but remained vulnerable to shocks in commodity markets, disruption of global supply chains and geopolitical uncertainty. The annual inflation rate in both the euro area and the EU again recorded a new all-time peak in October 2022. All this is reflected in economic sentiment which continued its sharp deterioration in October 2022 dropping further below its pre-pandemic level.



Full article


Situation in the euro area and the EU

GDP continues to grow in the euro area and the EU as a whole. According to estimates published by Eurostat, GDP grew by 0.2 % both the euro area and the EU in the third quarter of 2022. In the second quarter, GDP had grown by 0.8 % in the euro area and by 0.7 % in the EU. Compared to the third quarter of the previous year, GDP expanded by 2.1 % in the euro area and by 2.4 % in the EU. The average year-on-year growth for the first three quarters of 2022 was 4.0 % in the euro area and 4.1% in the EU.

Industrial production rose in September 2022. Output was up by 0.9 % in the euro area compared to August, when it increased by 2.0 %. Compared to September 2021, industrial output increased by 4.9 %. At EU level, the month-on-month increase was 0.9 %, following an increase of 1.5 % in August; in year-on-year terms, industrial output increased by 5.7 %.

In October 2022, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) declined further in both the euro area and the EU by 1.1 points to 92.5 and by 1.5 points to 90.9 respectively. The recorded values in October are 12.5 points (euro area) and 14.5 points (EU) below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. The drop was due to a significant weakening in services and industry confidence.



Figure 1: Output indicators and economic sentiment in the euro area
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp), (sts_inpr_m) and (ei_bssi_m_r2)


The annual inflation rate (HICP) in the euro area reached 10.6 % in October 2022, up from 9.9 % in September. A sharp acceleration of energy and food prices, exacerbated by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, is the major driver. Looking at the main components, ‘energy’ continued to have the highest annual rate (41.5 %, up from 40.7 % in September), followed by ‘food, alcohol & tobacco’ (13.1 %, up from 11.8 % in September), ‘non-energy industrial goods’ (6.1 %, up from 5.5 % in September) and ‘services’ (remained stable at 4.3 %, compared to the previous month. In the EU, the annual inflation was 11.5 % in October, up from 10.9 % in the previous month.

In September 2022, industrial producer prices increased on an annualised basis by 41.9 % in the euro area and by 41.4 % in the EU, although at a slower pace than in previous months. The month-on month increase was by 1.6 % in the euro area and by 1.5 % in the EU compared to August.

In the euro area, industrial import prices increased year-on year by 27.4 % in the euro area in September and by 30.2 % in the EU in August. The month-on-month decrease was 0.7 % in September, following an increase of 2.5 in August in the euro area. In the EU, industrial import prices increased by 2.3 % in August.



Figure 2: Producer, import and consumer prices in the euro area
Source: Eurostat (ei_cphi_m) and (ei_isir_m)


In the second quarter of 2022, private final consumption expenditure increased by 1.0 % in the euro area and by 1.1 % in the EU (after a decrease of 0.1 % in the euro area and by a stable rate in the EU in the first quarter), government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.6 % in the euro area and by 0.5 % the EU (after +0.2 % in the euro area and stable rate in the EU in the previous quarter), and investment (gross fixed capital formation) increased by 0.7 % in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU (after -0.8 % and 0.0 %, respectively in the previous quarter).

In September 2022, the volume of retail trade increased slightly by 0.4 % in both the euro area and the EU compared to the previous month, when it remained stable. Compared to September 2021, retail sales decreased by 0.6 % in the euro area and by 0.3 % in the EU.



Figure 3: Demand indicators in the euro area
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp) and (ei_isrr_m)


In September 2022, the unemployment rate was 6.6 % in the euro area, down from 6.7 % in August and remaining below its pre-pandemic value of 7.4 % in February 2020. In the EU, the unemployment rate was 6.0 % in September, stable compared to the previous month.

The unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds was 14.6 % both in the euro area and the EU in September, up from 14.4 % and 14.3 % respectively in the previous month. The rate for persons 25 years or older was considerably lower at 5.8 % in the euro area, rather stable since April, and 5.2 % in the EU, stable compared to the previous month.

In the third quarter of 2022, the number of employed persons increased quarter-on-quarter by 0.2 % in both areas, according to Eurostat’s estimates. This follows increases of 0.4 % in both the euro area and the EU in the second quarter. Year-on-year, employment increased by 1.7 % and 1.5 % respectively. Hourly labour costs rose by 4.0 % in the euro area in the second quarter, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the EU, the increase was 4.4 %. In the previous quarter, the increases were 4.2 % and 4.5 % respectively.

Employment expectations, as measured by business and consumer surveys, decreased, but remained well above its long-term average. This decrease was driven by driven by worsened employment plans in industry, services and retail trade, while managers in construction expected employment in their firms to increase over the next three months. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) decreased by 1.7 points to 104.9 in the euro area and by 1.8 points to 104.5 in the EU.



Figure 4: Labour market indicators in the euro area
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_a10_e), (lc_lci_r2_q) and (ei_lmhr_m)


Interest and exchange rates

Interest rates

On 27 October 2022, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points, with effect from 2 November 2022.

The euro area’s 3-month rate, Euribor, sharply increased to 1.43 % in October 2022 from 1.01 % in September 2022. Long-term interest rates (monthly average weighted 10-year government bond yield) of the euro area increased to 2.98 % in October 2022, from 2.60 % in September 2022. The EU long-term interest rates increased to 3.64 % in October 2022 from 3.14 % in September 2022.

Exchange rates

In October compared to September, the monthly averages of the day-to-day exchange rates were the following:

  • Euro-US dollar: USD 0.9826, down from USD 0.9904
  • Euro-Japanese yen: JPY 144.57, up from JPY 141.57
  • Euro-Swiss franc: CHF 0.9791, up from CHF 0.9640



Figure 5: Financial indicators in the euro area
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_a10_e), (ei_mfir_m) and (ei_mfrt_m)



Latest macroeconomic forecasts

The autumn forecasts by the four international organisations European Commission (EC)[1], European Central Bank (ECB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed a further downward trend in the GDP growth outlook and an expected ascending trend in inflation for the last quarter of 2022, high average inflation in 2023, however an ease of inflationary pressure in 2023. Uncertainty, in particular related to gas supply disruptions, together with sharp increases in bank lending rates, are constraining economic activity.

The projections for the euro area economic growth are estimated to be 3.1 % (OECD, ECB and IMF) and 3.2 % (EC) in real GDP terms in 2022. For 2023, the economic growth is predicted to be around 0.3 % (EC and OECD), 0.5 % (IMF) and 0.9 % (ECB) in real GDP terms. This is the weakest growth forecast since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Compared to its previous forecasts, the European Commission adjusted the annual inflation rate to 8.5 % in 2022 and 6.1 % in 2023, that is in line with previously observed adjustments of the OECD forecasts to 8.1 % and 6.2 % (from 7.0 % and 4.6 % respectively). IMF forecasted for 2022 as well a higher inflation rate of 8.3 % in 2022, and a decline to 5.7 % in 2023. The ECB forecasts expected an annual inflation of 8.1 % in 2022 and 5.5 % in 2023.

Due to the complex economic situation, the assumptions underpinning the forecasts are subject to high a degree of uncertainty.

Read more under “Economy on a path of lower growth and higher inflation” in the visualisation tool.


Situation in the Member States

In the third quarter of 2022, GDP increased quarter-on-quarter in 13 Member States [2], while it decreased in eight countries. Among the Member States, increases were recorded in the Cyprus and Romania (+1.3 %) and Sweden (+0.7 %) in the third quarter of 2022, while the highest decreases were observed in Latvia (-1.7 %), Slovenia (-1.4 %) and Hungary and Czechia (-0.4 %). Year-on-year, GDP growth rates were positive in all Member States, expect Latvia (-0.4 %).

The current rate of inflation in the euro area and in the EU as a whole is the highest since the time series started in 1997, and the gap between the highest and lowest rates among the Member States is the widest since 2008. The highest estimated annual inflation rates (HICP) in October 2022 were in two Baltic countries Estonia (22.5 %) and Lithuania (22.1 %) and in Hungary (21.9 %), while the lowest rates were recorded in Malta (7.4 %), Spain (7.3 %) and France (7.1 %).

The lowest unemployment rates in September were recorded in Czechia (2.2 %), Poland (2.6 %), Germany and Malta (3.0 %) and the highest ones in Spain (12.7 %), Greece (11.8 %) and Cyprus (8.0 %). Eurostat estimates that around 12.9 million men and women in the EU, of whom 10.9 million in the euro area, were unemployed in September.

In October, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased in eight Member States and decreased in 17, while remaining stable in two countries. The ESI level varying substantially between them: from 68.2 in Denmark, 76.5 in Sweden, and 82.2 in Belgium to 105.2 in Croatia, 102.9 in Romania and 101.1 in Cyprus. The ESI is currently below its pre-pandemic level of February 2020 in all EU Member States.


Member State in focus

The economy in Austria decreased moderately in the third quarter of 2022. The quarter-on-quarter GDP decline was -0.1 %. This follows an increase of 1.9 % recorded in the second quarter. Year-on-year, GDP grew by 1.8 %.

Industrial production dropped month on month by 2.1 % in September, after an increase by 6.1 % in August.

Economic sentiment decreased in October, down 2.0 points to 84.5, following a decrease of 1.0 point in September. The ESI has the sixth lower score among all Member States. It is currently 20.2 points below its pre-pandemic level of February 2020. The annual inflation rate reached 11.5 % in October, up from 11.0 % in September and 9.3 % in August.

The annual rate of growth of industrial producer prices reached 31.9 % in September, up from 30.4 % in August, and thus well below the euro area annual growth rate.

The volume of retail trade increased month-on-month by 3.9 % in September, following a moderate increase of 0.9 % in August.

The unemployment rate was 5.1 % in September, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month. However, the unemployment rate is still higher compared to its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, although decreasing. Approximately 238 000 men and women were unemployed in September.



Situation in the largest EU economies

Among the six largest EU economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland), Poland had the highest GDP growth rate in the third quarter 2022, while the Netherlands recorded negative growth. In October, the annual inflation decreased slightly in Spain and the Netherlands, while it increased in the other four countries. In the same month, the economic sentiment (ESI) showed a mixed picture. Unemployment remained stable in September, with the exception of France where it decreased slight to 7.1 % from 7.3 % in August.


Overview: the largest EU economies
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp), (ei_cphi_m) and (ei_bssi_m_r2)


Member State in focus

Economy in Spain continued to expand moderately in the third quarter of 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP growth was 0.2 %, after adjustments for seasonal and calendar effects. This follows a growth of 1.5 % recorded in the second quarter of 2022 and a decrease by 0.2 % in the first quarter of 2022. GDP was up 3.8 % compared to the third quarter of 2021.

However, industrial production decreased by 0.4 % in September, offsetting the moderate growth rate of 0.4 % in August.

The ESI increased by 1.4 points to 98.0 in October, following a decrease of one point in September. While the indicator had climbed in 2021 to exceed its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, it contracted in the second quarter of 2022 to pass below its pre-pandemic value. The ESI is currently 5.8 points below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

The annual inflation rate reached 7.3 % in October, down from 9.0 % in September, while it had increased in the previous month. The annual growth rate of industrial producer prices was 35.6 % in September, down from 42.9 % in August. The annual growth rate of import prices was 28.8 % in September, down from 30.0 % in August.

The volume of retail trade increased by 0.2 % in September compared to the previous month, when it rose by 0.6 %.

The unemployment rate was 12.7 % in September, and thus remained stable compared to the two previous months. In September, approximately 2 978 000 men and women were unemployed in Spain, of which 522 000 were young persons (under 25).




International context

Situation in the EFTA countries

In the second quarter of 2022, GDP increased in all three EFTA countries, with the highest increase recorded in Iceland (3.9 %). In Switzerland, annual inflation was very low in October (2.9 %) compared to the situation in the EU. Although inflation rates increased in Norway and Iceland, the recorded values were similar to the Member States experiencing the lowest rates within the EU. Unemployment rates remained low and stable in Norway and Iceland.


Overview: EFTA countries
Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp), (ei_cphi_m) and (ei_lmhr_m)

Situation in other non-EU countries

In the third quarter of 2022, GDP rose quarter-on-quarter in China and slightly in the United States. Year-on-year, it increased in China, Japan and the United States. Unemployment slightly decreased in the United States in September. In both China and the United States annual inflation decreased markedly [3].


Overview: other non-EU-countries
Source: OECD (quarterly national accounts, consumer price indices), Eurostat (ei_lmhr_m)

Data sources

Data for non-EU countries come either from Eurostat’s datasets or from an external source, such as the OECD Main Economic Indicators (MEI) database or the OECD Public Sector Debt database.

Data for the euro area, EU and Member States

  • GDP, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (namq_10_gdp)
  • Industrial production, month-on-month percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted, and year-on-year percentage change, calendar adjusted (ei_isir_m)
  • Economic Sentiment Indicator, seasonally adjusted, not calendar adjusted (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) - ei_bssi_m_r2)
  • Inflation (HICP), year-on-year percentage change, non-seasonally adjusted (ei_chpi_m)
  • Industrial producer prices, month-on-month and year-on-year percentage change, non-seasonally adjusted (ei_isir_m)
  • Import prices, month-on-month and year-on-year percentage change, non-seasonally adjusted (ei_isir_m)
  • Deflated retail trade, month-on-month percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted, and year-on-year percentage change, calendar adjusted (ei_isrr_m)
  • Household final consumption expenditure, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (namq_10_gdp)
  • Government final consumption expenditure, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (namq_10_gdp)
  • Gross fixed capital formation, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (namq_10_gdp)
  • Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (ei_lmhr_m) and unemployment in thousand persons, non-seasonally adjusted (ei_lmhu_m)
  • Labour cost index, month-on-month and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (lc_lci_r2_q)
  • Employment, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, non-seasonally adjusted (namq_10_a10_e)
  • Employment Expectations Indicator, seasonally adjusted, not calendar adjusted (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) - ei_bsee_m_r2)
  • Exchange rates, unadjusted data (neither seasonally adjusted, nor calendar adjusted data) (ei_mfrt_m)
  • Interest rates, unadjusted data (neither seasonally adjusted, nor calendar adjusted data) (ei_mfir_m)

Data for Norway, Iceland and Switzerland

  • GDP, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year percentage change, seasonally and calendar adjusted (namq_10_gdp)
  • Inflation (HICP), annual rate, all items, non-seasonally adjusted (ei_cphi_m)
  • Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (ei_lmhr_m)

Data for China, Japan and United States

Data for China and Japan

Data for United States

  • Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (ei_lmhr_m)
  • Inflation (HICP), year-on-year percentage change, non-seasonally adjusted (prc_hicp_manr)

Context

The Principal European Economic Indicators, abbreviated as PEEIs, represent a comprehensive set of infra-annual macroeconomic statistics aiming to describe the economic and labour market situation as well as price developments in the euro area, the European Union and its Member States, which are of particularly high importance for economic and monetary policy.

The Communication of the Commission to the European parliament and the Council on Eurozone statistics “Towards improved methodologies for Eurozone statistics and indicators” of November 2002 has defined the list of PEEIs and their timeliness targets (amended in the 2008 EFC Status Report).

In 2002, Eurostat produced an initial list of 19 principal indicators, which has since been expanded to 22; they are published regularly and posted on a specific PEEI page on the Eurostat website. Since 2002, PEEIs have been regularly monitored and improved, in terms of coverage as well as timeliness. The list of indicators includes gross domestic product (GDP), private final consumption, external trade balance and three-month interest rates.

Achieved progress and remaining challenges have been constantly monitored. Each year Eurostat, in cooperation with the European Central Bank, drafts a Status Report on Information Requirements in the Economic and monetary union (EMU) which is first submitted to the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) and then to the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN). All reports can be found under publications.

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Notes

  1. Following the Council Decision (2022/1211/EU) of 12 July 2022 on the adoption by Croatia of the euro on 1 January 2023, in line with past practice, all forecast numbers (i.e., for 2022-2024) for the euro area aggregate include Croatia. Croatia has a weight of about 0.5% in the euro area GDP aggregate. For the sake of comparability, most reference forecast numbers from the Spring 2022 Forecast and all historical numbers for the euro area aggregate have been recalculated and refer to the EA20 aggregate. Consequently, all the graphs displaying annual data for the euro area present the EA20 aggregate for historical and forecast years.”
  2. Data not available for Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Croatia, Luxembourg and Malta. GDP data as published in Eurostat’s news release on 15 November 2022, some of these data not yet visible in the visualisation tool.
  3. The US all items inflation value presented here is more comparable with the EU HICP, however, is only available with a delay. More recent US CPI data can be found on the US Bureau of Labor statistics website