Development of GDP

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In the 3rd quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased, up 0.3% quarter on quarter in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU. For comparison, an increase of 0.1% had been observed in the 2nd quarter in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU.

Situation in the EU countries

Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter rates of change, GDP increased in the 3rd quarter of 2025 in 21 countries, was unchanged in two and decreased in four. Denmark (up 2.2%) recorded the largest increase of GDP, while the decreases were observed in Ireland, Finland (both down 0.3%), Romania (down 0.2%) and Lithuania (down 0.1%).

Situation in non-EU countries

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP expanded in the 3rd quarter of 2025 in Norway, China and the United States (all up 1.1%) while it contracted in Iceland (down 0.2%), Switzerland (down 0.5%) and Japan (down 0.6%).

(*) See latest estimates for more data.

Industrial production

In November 2025, seasonally adjusted industrial production increased month on month by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU. In the previous month, there had been increases of 0.7% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU.

Production in construction

In November 2025, seasonally adjusted production in construction decreased 1.1% in both the euro area and the EU compared with the previous month. In the previous month, it had increased 1.7% in the euro area and 1.4% in the EU.

Retail trade

In November 2025, the seasonally adjusted volume of sales in retail trade increased marginally compared with the previous month in the euro area (up 0.1%) and slightly in the EU (up 0.2%), following on from increases in the previous month in the euro area (up 0.3%) and the EU (up 0.2%).

Inflation

Situation in the euro area and the EU

According to the latest data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in the euro area was 1.9% in December 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In the EU, the annual inflation rate was 2.3% in December 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

The highest annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in December 2025 was recorded in Romania (8.6%). The lowest inflation rates were recorded in Cyprus (0.1%), France (0.7%) and Italy (1.2%).

Situation in non-EU countries

In December 2025, the annual inflation rate was 4.0% in Iceland, 3.0% in Norway, 2.7% in the United States, 0.8% in China and 0.2% in Switzerland. In November 2025, the inflation rate was 3.9% in Japan.

Total unemployment

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In November 2025, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3% in the euro area, the 11th consecutive month in which this rate was recorded. In the EU, the rate was 6.0%, unchanged in 7 months.

Situation in the EU countries

In November 2025, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Malta (3.1%), Czechia and Poland (both 3.2%). The highest rates were in Finland (10.6%), Spain (10.4%), Sweden (9.1%), Greece (8.2%) and France (7.7%).

Situation in non-EU countries

The unemployment rate in November 2025 was 4.6% in both Iceland and the United States, 4.5% in Norway and 2.6% in Japan. In September 2025, the unemployment rate was 5.0% in Switzerland.

Youth unemployment

In November 2025, the youth unemployment rate (for people aged 15 to 24 years) was 14.6% in the euro area, down from 14.8% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 15.1%, down from 15.2% in the previous month.

Economic sentiment indicator

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In December 2025, the economic sentiment indicator decreased, down 0.4 percentage points in the euro area and 0.1 percentage points in the EU: the index level was 96.7 percentage points in the euro area and 96.8 percentage points in the EU. The decrease in the euro area resulted from decreases in confidence among consumers as well as retail trade and services managers outweighing increases among industrial and construction managers.

Situation in the EU countries

In December 2025, the economic sentiment indicator showed a generally positive development among the EU countries, increasing in 17 and decreasing in 10. By far, the strongest increase was in Malta (up 8.6 percentage points), while the strongest decreases were in Luxembourg (down 5.1 percentage points) and Belgium (down 4.6 percentage points). Apart from these three countries, the latest month-on-month changes ranged between 5.9 and -1.8 percentage points. The index level of the economic sentiment indicator (with a long-term average = 100) generally varied from 89.0 percentage points in Denmark to 108.0 percentage points in Croatia, with the index in Malta (120.6 percentage points) well above this range.

Employment expectations indicator

In December 2025, the employment expectations indicator decreased (down 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month) to 96.8 in the euro area; expectations were also down 0.9 percentage points in the EU to 97.9. The decrease in the euro area in December 2025 was due to less optimistic employment plans among construction and services managers and more pessimistic plans among retail trade managers outweighing less pessimistic plans among industrial managers.

€-coin

The €-coin increased to 0.52 in December 2025, up from 0.48 in the previous month. Positive indications for the performance of services continued to support the indicator, which also benefited from signs of recovery in the construction sector (according to the latest release of the National Bank of Italy on 7 January 2026).

Business climate indicator

The business climate indicator for the euro area increased to -0.56 points in December 2025 (up from -0.66 points in the previous month).

Coincident indicators

The growth cycle coincident indicator (GCCI) was 0.97 in December 2025, the business cycle coincident indicator (BCCI) was 0.02 and the acceleration cycle coincident indicator (ACCI) was 0.12, indicating a recovery phase for the euro area.

The GCCI, BCCI and ACCI are synthetic indicators which are experimental in nature and calculated for Eurostat’s business cycle clock. The GCCI shows the probability of a slowdown in the economy and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth cycle, the BCCI shows the probability of a recession and signals the peaks and troughs of the business cycle and the ACCI shows the probability of a deceleration in the growth rate and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth rate cycle. The probability is given on a scale from 0 to 1.

Read more about the methodology in the Statistics Explained article about the business cycle clock.

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator

The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator increased 0.36% month on month to 98.14 points in December 2025, following on from a smaller decrease (down 0.04%) in the previous month. When compared with the same month in the previous year, the Euro-Indikator was 1.77% higher in December 2025.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters:

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.

Read more in the methodological note.