Edition: October 2026 Next update: 25 November 2026

Economic developments

GDP increased

Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP) and OECD.

Development of GDP

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted GDP increased 0.6% quarter on quarter in the euro area and 0.7% in the EU. For comparison, no change had been observed in the first quarter of 2026 in the euro area and a marginal increase (up 0.1%) in the EU.

Situation in the EU countries

Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter rates of change, GDP increased in the second quarter of 2026 in 23 countries, was unchanged in 2 and decreased in 2. Ireland (up 10.2%), Slovenia (up 1.9%), Sweden (up 1.6%) and Lithuania (up 1.4%) recorded the largest increases. GDP was unchanged in France and Romania and decreased in Luxembourg (down 0.9%) and Austria (down 0.1%).

Situation in non-EU countries

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP expanded in the second quarter of 2026 in Switzerland (up 1.9%), China (up 0.9%), Canada (up 0.8%), Norway (up 0.7%), the United States (up 0.6%), the United Kingdom (up 0.5%) and Japan (up 0.4%). It decreased in Iceland (down 3.0%).

Industrial production decreased

Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).

Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).

Industrial production

In August 2026, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased month on month in the euro area (down 0.5%) and in the EU (down 0.3%). In the previous month, it had decreased 0.3% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU.

Production in construction increased

Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)

Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)

Production in construction

In August 2026, seasonally adjusted production in construction increased month on month by 1.8% in the euro area and 2.0% in the EU. In the previous month, it had increased 0.2% in the euro area and decreased 0.1% in the EU.

Retail trade sales increased

Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).

Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).

Retail trade

In August 2026, the seasonally adjusted volume of sales in retail trade increased compared with the previous month in both the euro area and the EU (up 0.1%), following decreases of 0.6% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU in the previous month.

Annual inflation increased

Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr) and OECD.

Inflation

Situation in the euro area and the EU

According to the latest data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in the euro area was 3.8% in September 2026, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In the EU, the annual inflation rate was 3.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

The highest annual inflation rates (based on the HICP) in September 2026 were recorded in Romania (6.5%) and Lithuania (6.1%), while the lowest rate was recorded in Sweden (1.0%).

Situation in non-EU countries

In September 2026, the annual inflation rate was 5.4% in Iceland, 3.7% in the United States, 3.4% in Norway, 3.1% in Canada, 1.2% in Switzerland and 0.9% in China.

Total unemployment rate was unchanged

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD

Total unemployment

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In August 2026, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.4% in the euro area, unchanged from the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 6.1%, also unchanged from the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

In August 2026, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Czechia (3.2%) and in Malta, Poland and Slovenia (all 3.4%). The highest rates were in Spain (10.0%) and Finland (9.9%).

Situation in non-EU countries

The unemployment rate in August 2026 was 5.8% in Iceland, 4.5% in Norway, 4.1% in the United States and 2.5% in Japan. The latest available rate in Switzerland was 5.1%, in June 2026.

Youth unemployment fell in the euro area and rose in the EU

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.

Youth unemployment

In August 2026, the youth unemployment rate (for people aged 15 to 24 years) was 15.0% in the euro area, down from 15.1% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate increased to 15.4%, from 15.3% in the previous month.

Economic sentiment weakened

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).

Economic sentiment indicator

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In September 2026, the economic sentiment indicator decreased by 0.5 points in the euro area and 0.4 points in the EU. The index level was 97.9 in both the euro area and the EU.

Situation in the EU countries

In September 2026, the economic sentiment indicator increased in 12 EU countries, decreased in 12 and was unchanged in 1 (data for Estonia and Malta are not available). The strongest decreases were in Austria (down 3.6 points), Belgium (down 3.0 points) and Finland (down 2.1 points). The strongest increases were in Croatia (up 4.1 points), Spain (up 3.4 points) and Denmark (up 1.6 points). The index level varied from 86.8 in Belgium to 108.8 in Croatia.

Employment expectations decreased

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).

Employment expectations indicator

In September 2026, the employment expectations indicator decreased by 1.3 points compared with the previous month to 97.5 in the euro area. In the EU, it decreased by 0.6 points to 98.3.

Growth assessment

The €-coin indicator decreased

Source: Bank of Italy/CEPR and Eurostat (namq_10_GDP).

€-coin

The €-coin decreased to 0.38 in September 2026, down from 0.84 in the previous month. The indicator was affected by higher market interest rates and weaker consumer confidence (according to the latest release of Banca d’Italia on 2 October 2026).

The business climate indicator increased

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsci_m_r2).

Business climate indicator

The business climate indicator for the euro area increased, altough remaining negative, to -0.06 points in September 2026, up from -0.24 points in the previous month.

The coincident indicators signal a slowdown

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Coincident indicators

In September 2026, the growth cycle coincident indicator (GCCI) was 0.97 and the business cycle coincident indicator (BCCI) was 0.02, indicating a phase of slowdown for the euro area. The acceleration cycle coincident indicator (ACCI) was 0.96. The GCCI, BCCI and ACCI are synthetic indicators which are experimental in nature and calculated for Eurostat’s business cycle clock. The GCCI shows the probability of a slowdown in the economy and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth cycle, the BCCI shows the probability of a recession and signals the peaks and troughs of the business cycle and the ACCI shows the probability of a deceleration in the growth rate and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth rate cycle. The probability is given on a scale from 0 to 1.

Read more about the methodology in the Statistics Explained article about the business cycle clock.

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator increased

Source: DZ Bank Research

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator

The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator increased 0.19% month on month to 98.57 points in September 2026, following an increase of 0.08% in the previous month. Compared with the same month of the previous year, the Euro-Indikator was 0.92% higher.

Latest forecasts point to modest growth and higher inflation

Forecasts for the euro area’s GDP growth and inflation for 2025, 2026 and 2027
(%)
Forecast
GDP growth
Inflation
2026 2027 2026 2027
European Commission – Autumn 2025 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.0
Economic forecasts Spring 2026 0.9 1.2 3.0 2.3
ECB – June 2026 0.8 1.2 3.0 2.3
Macroeconomic Projections September 2026 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.5
IMF – July 2026 0.9 1.2 2.9 2.3
World Economic Outlook October 2026 1.1 1.2 3.1 2.8
OECD – June 2026 0.8 1.2 2.8 2.4
Economic Outlook Forecasts September 2026 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.9
Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Autumn 2025, Spring 2026, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: June 2026, September 2026, IMF World Economic Outlook: July 2026, October 2026, OECD Economic Outlook: June 2026, September 2026,
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ GDP growth for 2026
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2025 Spring 2026 June 2026 September 2026 July 2026 October 2026 June 2026 September 2026
Euro area 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0
Belgium 1.1 0.7 0.6 : : 0.7 0.7 :
Bulgaria 2.7 2.5 2.8 : : 2.6 2.5 :
Germany 1.2 0.6 0.5 : 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.1
Estonia 2.1 1.6 2.4 : : 2.1 1.8 :
Ireland 0.2 −1.2 0.3 : : −1.0 −1.0 :
Greece 2.2 1.8 1.9 : : 1.8 1.9 :
Spain 2.3 2.4 2.3 : 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.6
France 0.9 0.8 0.5 : 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4
Croatia 2.9 2.7 2.4 : : 2.2 2.6 :
Italy 0.8 0.5 0.5 : 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.9
Cyprus 2.6 2.3 2.5 : : 2.9 : :
Latvia 1.7 1.4 2.0 : : 2.3 1.9 :
Lithuania 3.0 3.0 2.7 : : 2.7 2.8 :
Luxembourg 1.9 1.6 1.4 : : 1.1 0.7 :
Malta 3.8 3.7 3.7 : : 4.2 : :
Netherlands 1.3 1.0 0.8 : 1.0 1.5 1.0 :
Austria 0.9 0.6 0.5 : : 0.6 0.7 :
Portugal 2.2 1.7 1.8 : : 2.1 1.8 :
Slovenia 2.4 1.9 1.9 : : 3.2 1.9 :
Slovakia 1.0 0.8 0.5 : : 0.8 0.7 :
Finland 0.9 0.8 0.7 : : 1.7 0.8 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ inflation for 2026
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2025 Spring 2026 June 2026 September 2026 July 2026 October 2026 June 2026 September 2026
Euro area 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.0
Belgium 1.8 3.4 3.4 : : 3.8 3.5 :
Bulgaria 2.9 4.2 5.0 : : 4.9 4.6 :
Germany 2.2 2.9 2.9 : : 2.7 2.7 2.9
Estonia 2.8 4.4 3.4 : : 3.0 4.1 :
Ireland 1.9 3.5 3.6 : : 3.4 3.5 :
Greece 2.3 3.7 3.8 : : 4.2 4.2 :
Spain 2.0 3.0 3.6 : : 3.7 3.3 3.7
France 1.3 2.4 2.5 : : 2.4 2.1 2.5
Croatia 2.8 4.6 4.9 : : 4.5 4.7 :
Italy 1.3 3.2 3.1 : : 3.3 3.0 3.0
Cyprus 1.5 3.6 3.2 : : 3.7 : :
Latvia 2.2 3.6 3.6 : : 3.6 3.6 :
Lithuania 2.8 4.4 5.1 : : 5.4 5.1 :
Luxembourg 1.7 2.7 4.0 : : 3.0 4.2 :
Malta 2.1 2.7 2.5 : : 2.4 : :
Netherlands 2.5 3.2 2.7 : : 2.9 2.7 :
Austria 2.4 3.0 3.2 : : 3.1 2.8 :
Portugal 2.0 3.0 3.1 : : 3.2 3.2 :
Slovenia 2.3 3.5 3.6 : : 3.5 3.3 :
Slovakia 4.1 4.3 4.0 : : 3.6 4.3 :
Finland 1.6 2.4 2.4 : : 2.4 2.6 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area’s GDP growth and inflation for 2025, 2026 and 2027
(%)
Forecast
GDP growth
Inflation
2026 2027 2026 2027
European Commission – Autumn 2025 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.0
Economic forecasts Spring 2026 0.9 1.2 3.0 2.3
ECB – June 2026 0.8 1.2 3.0 2.3
Macroeconomic Projections September 2026 0.9 1.4 3.0 2.5
IMF – July 2026 0.9 1.2 2.9 2.3
World Economic Outlook October 2026 1.1 1.2 3.1 2.8
OECD – June 2026 0.8 1.2 2.8 2.4
Economic Outlook Forecasts September 2026 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.9
Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Autumn 2025, Spring 2026, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: June 2026, September 2026, IMF World Economic Outlook: July 2026, October 2026, OECD Economic Outlook: June 2026, September 2026,
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ GDP growth for 2026
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2025 Spring 2026 June 2026 September 2026 July 2026 October 2026 June 2026 September 2026
Euro area 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0
Belgium 1.1 0.7 0.6 : : 0.7 0.7 :
Bulgaria 2.7 2.5 2.8 : : 2.6 2.5 :
Germany 1.2 0.6 0.5 : 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.1
Estonia 2.1 1.6 2.4 : : 2.1 1.8 :
Ireland 0.2 −1.2 0.3 : : −1.0 −1.0 :
Greece 2.2 1.8 1.9 : : 1.8 1.9 :
Spain 2.3 2.4 2.3 : 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.6
France 0.9 0.8 0.5 : 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4
Croatia 2.9 2.7 2.4 : : 2.2 2.6 :
Italy 0.8 0.5 0.5 : 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.9
Cyprus 2.6 2.3 2.5 : : 2.9 : :
Latvia 1.7 1.4 2.0 : : 2.3 1.9 :
Lithuania 3.0 3.0 2.7 : : 2.7 2.8 :
Luxembourg 1.9 1.6 1.4 : : 1.1 0.7 :
Malta 3.8 3.7 3.7 : : 4.2 : :
Netherlands 1.3 1.0 0.8 : 1.0 1.5 1.0 :
Austria 0.9 0.6 0.5 : : 0.6 0.7 :
Portugal 2.2 1.7 1.8 : : 2.1 1.8 :
Slovenia 2.4 1.9 1.9 : : 3.2 1.9 :
Slovakia 1.0 0.8 0.5 : : 0.8 0.7 :
Finland 0.9 0.8 0.7 : : 1.7 0.8 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ inflation for 2026
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2025 Spring 2026 June 2026 September 2026 July 2026 October 2026 June 2026 September 2026
Euro area 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.0
Belgium 1.8 3.4 3.4 : : 3.8 3.5 :
Bulgaria 2.9 4.2 5.0 : : 4.9 4.6 :
Germany 2.2 2.9 2.9 : : 2.7 2.7 2.9
Estonia 2.8 4.4 3.4 : : 3.0 4.1 :
Ireland 1.9 3.5 3.6 : : 3.4 3.5 :
Greece 2.3 3.7 3.8 : : 4.2 4.2 :
Spain 2.0 3.0 3.6 : : 3.7 3.3 3.7
France 1.3 2.4 2.5 : : 2.4 2.1 2.5
Croatia 2.8 4.6 4.9 : : 4.5 4.7 :
Italy 1.3 3.2 3.1 : : 3.3 3.0 3.0
Cyprus 1.5 3.6 3.2 : : 3.7 : :
Latvia 2.2 3.6 3.6 : : 3.6 3.6 :
Lithuania 2.8 4.4 5.1 : : 5.4 5.1 :
Luxembourg 1.7 2.7 4.0 : : 3.0 4.2 :
Malta 2.1 2.7 2.5 : : 2.4 : :
Netherlands 2.5 3.2 2.7 : : 2.9 2.7 :
Austria 2.4 3.0 3.2 : : 3.1 2.8 :
Portugal 2.0 3.0 3.1 : : 3.2 3.2 :
Slovenia 2.3 3.5 3.6 : : 3.5 3.3 :
Slovakia 4.1 4.3 4.0 : : 3.6 4.3 :
Finland 1.6 2.4 2.4 : : 2.4 2.6 :
Sources: See first table

Latest macroeconomic forecasts

European Commission: in its spring 2026 report, the European Commission revised downwards its forecast for euro area growth for 2026 to 0.9% (from 1.2%) and its forecast for 2027 to 1.2% (from 1.4%). It raised its forecasted euro area annual inflation rate for 2026 to 3.0% (from 1.9%) and also raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.3% (from 2.0%). The conflict in the Middle East materially changed the economic situation since the previous forecast, delivering one of the most significant global energy supply disruptions in recent history. The impact of the energy shock is set to extend into 2027.

ECB: in its September 2026 Macroeconomic Projections for the euro area, the ECB revised upwards its forecast for euro area growth for 2026 to 0.9% (from 0.8%) and its forecast for 2027 to 1.4% (from 1.2%). It maintained its forecasted euro area annual inflation rate for 2026 at 3.0% and raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.5% (from 2.3%). The upward revisions to growth reflect greater resilience in the euro area economy.

IMF: in the World Economic Outlook of October 2026, euro area GDP was projected to expand by 1.1% in 2026, marking an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous forecast from July 2026; the forecast for 2027 was maintained at 1.2%. The IMF raised its forecasted euro area annual inflation rate for 2026 to 3.1% (from 2.9%) and also raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.8% (from 2.3%).

OECD (*): in the September 2026 report of the Economic Outlook, the OECD raised its euro area growth forecast for 2026 to 1.0% (from 0.8%) and lowered its forecast for 2027 to 1.0% (from 1.2%). The OECD raised its forecasted euro area annual inflation rate for 2026 to 3.0% (from 2.8%) and also raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.9% (from 2.4%). Higher energy prices and policy rates are expected to weigh on activity, while easing energy prices and new defence spending initiatives could support growth.

(*) The euro area aggregate includes only OECD member countries. Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus and Malta are excluded as they are not members of the OECD.

Trend-cycle estimates

GDP in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend). The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.

Industrial production in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.

Employment in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.

GDP in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.

Industrial production in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters:

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.

Employment in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using four different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • The Harvey and Trimbur decomposition, which is probably the most well-known model within the Unobserved Components (UC) framework.
  • The Beveridge-Nelson filter.

Read more in the methodological note.