Edition: May 2025 Next update: 26 June 2025

Economic developments

GDP increased

Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (namq_10_GDP) and OECD.


Development of GDP

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In the 1st quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased, up 0.3% quarter on quarter in both the euro area and the EU. For comparison, an increase of 0.2% had been observed in the 4th quarter in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU.

Situation in the EU countries

Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter rates of change, GDP increased in the 1st quarter of 2025 in 16 countries, remained stable in 2 and decreased in 3 (1st quarter data aren’t available for 6 countries at the time of writing). Ireland (up 3.2%) recorded the largest increase of GDP. The decreases were observed in Slovenia (down 0.8%), Portugal (down 0.5%) and Hungary (down 0.2%).

Situation in non-EU countries

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP expanded in the 1st quarter of 2025 in China (up 1.2%) and contracted slightly in the United States (down 0.1%) and Japan (down 0.2%). In the 4th quarter of 2024, GDP expanded 0.2% in Switzerland, while it contracted in Norway (down 0.6%) and Iceland (down 1.4%). (*) See latest estimates for more data.

Industrial production rose

Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).

Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m).


Industrial production

In March 2025, seasonally adjusted industrial production increased month on month by 2.6% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU. In the previous month, there had been increases of 1.1% in both the euro area and the EU.

Production in construction decreased

Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)

Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_m)


Production in construction

In February 2025, seasonally adjusted production in construction decreased 0.5% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU compared with the previous month. In the previous month, it had increased 0.6% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU.

Retail trade sales decreased slightly

Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).

Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m).


Retail trade

In March 2025, the seasonally adjusted volume of sales in retail trade decreased marginally compared with the previous month in both the euro area and the EU (down 0.1%), following on from an increase of 0.2% in the previous month in the euro area and no change in the EU.

Annual inflation was stable

Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr) and OECD.


Inflation

Situation in the euro area and the EU

According to the latest data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in the euro area was 2.2% in both March and April 2025. In the EU, annual inflation was 2.4% in April 2025, down 0.1 points compared with the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

The highest annual inflation rates (based on the HICP) in April 2025 were recorded in Romania (4.9%) and Estonia (4.4%). The lowest inflation rate was recorded in France (0.9%).

Situation in non-EU countries

In April 2025, the annual inflation rate was 3.9% in Iceland, 2.3% in the United States, 2.1% in Norway, 0.3% in Switzerland and -0.1% in China. In March 2025, the rate was 3.6% in Japan.

Total unemployment rate was stable

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD


Total unemployment

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In March 2025, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.2% in the euro area, unchanged from the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 5.8%, also unchanged from the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

In March 2025, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Czechia (2.6%), Poland (2.7%) and Malta (2.8%). The highest rates were in Spain (10.9%), Finland (9.5%), Greece (9.0%), Estonia (8.7%) and Sweden (8.1%).

Situation in non-EU countries

The unemployment rate in March 2025 was 4.4% in Norway, 4.2% in the United States and 2.5% in Japan. In January 2025, the unemployment rate was 3.6% in Iceland, while in December 2024 it was 4.5% in Switzerland.

Youth unemployment rate decreased

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.

Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m) and OECD.


Youth unemployment

In March 2025, the youth unemployment rate (for people aged 15 to 24 years) was 14.2% in the euro area, down from 14.3% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 14.5%, down from 14.6% in the previous month.

Economic sentiment weakened

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bssi_m_r2).


Economic sentiment indicator

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In April 2025, the economic sentiment indicator decreased, down 1.4 points in both the euro area and the EU: the index level was 93.6 points in the euro area and 94.4 points in the EU. The decrease in the euro area resulted from decreases in confidence among consumers as well as managers from all sectors: industrial, construction, retail and services.

Situation in the EU countries

In April 2025, the economic sentiment indicator showed a generally downward development among the EU countries, increasing in 7, unchanged in 1 and decreasing in 19. By far, the strongest increase was in Luxembourg (up 4.1 points), while the strongest decreases were in Ireland (down 7.8 points), Czechia (down 4.8 points), Denmark (down 4.2 points) and Belgium (down 3.7 points). The index level of the economic sentiment indicator (with a long-term average = 100) varied from 87.7 points in Belgium to 108.0 points in Malta.

Employment expectations unchanged in the euro area and weakened in the EU

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsee_m_r2).


Employment expectations indicator

In April 2025, the employment expectations indicator was unchanged compared with the previous month at 96.5 in the euro area; expectations decreased (down 0.7 points) to 96.9 in the EU. The stability in the euro area in April 2025 was due to less pessimistic employment plans among industrial managers combined with more optimistic plans among services managers balancing less optimistic plans among construction managers combined with more pessimistic plans among retail managers.

Growth assessment

The €-coin indicator was unchanged

Source: Bank of Italy/CEPR and Eurostat (namq_10_GDP).


€-coin

The €-coin was unchanged in April 2025 (according to the latest release of the National Bank of Italy on 5 May 2025). The indicator benefited from the increase in industrial production but was affected by the deterioration in business and consumer confidence.

The business climate indicator increased

Source: Eurostat/DG ECFIN (ei_bsci_m_r2).


Business climate indicator

The business climate indicator for the euro area rose to -0.67 points in April 2025 (up from -0.72 points in the previous month).

The coincident indicators signal a slowdown in the euro area economy, but no recession

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).

Source: Eurostat (own calculations).


Coincident indicators

The growth cycle coincident indicator (GCCI) was 0.97 in April 2025, indicating a slowdown phase for the euro area economy. In the same month, the business cycle coincident indicator (BCCI) was 0.02, confirming the absence of any recessionary signals.

The GCCI and BCCI are synthetic indicators which are experimental in nature and calculated for Eurostat’s business cycle clock. The GCCI shows the probability of a slowdown in the economy and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth cycle, while the BCCI shows the probability of a recession and signals the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. The probability is given on a scale from 0 to 1.

Read more about the methodology in the Statistics Explained article about the business cycle clock.

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator decreased

Source: DZ Bank Research


DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator

The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator, decreased 0.24% month on month to 97.27 points in April 2025. This followed a similar increase (up 0.25%) in the previous month. When compared with the same month in the previous year, the Euro-Indikator was 1.50% higher in April 2025.

Latest forecasts indicate moderate growth amid global economic uncertainty

Forecasts for the euro area’s GDP growth and inflation for 2025 and 2026
(%)
Forecast
GDP growth
Inflation
2025 2026 2025 2026
European Commission – Autumn 2024 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.9
Economic forecasts Spring 2025 0.9 1.4 2.1 1.7
ECB – December 2024 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9
Macroeconomic Projections March 2025 0.9 1.2 2.3 1.9
IMF – January 2025 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.0
World Economic Outlook April 2025 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.9
OECD – December 2024 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.0
Economic Outlook Forecasts March 2025 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.0
Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Autumn 2024, Spring 2025, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: December 2024, March 2025, IMF World Economic Outlook: January 2025, April 2025, OECD Economic Outlook: December 2024, March 2025,
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ GDP growth for 2025
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2024 Spring 2025 December 2024 March 2025 January 2025 April 2025 December 2024 March 2025
Euro area 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.0
Belgium 1.2 0.8 1.2 : : 0.8 1.2 :
Germany 0.7 0.0 0.2 : 0.3 −0.1 0.7 0.4
Estonia 1.1 1.1 1.6 : : 0.7 1.7 :
Ireland 4.0 3.4 4.0 : : 2.3 3.7 :
Greece 2.3 2.3 2.5 : : 2.0 2.2 :
Spain 2.3 2.6 2.5 : 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.6
France 0.8 0.6 0.9 : 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8
Croatia 3.3 3.2 3.3 : : 3.1 3.0 :
Italy 1.0 0.7 0.8 : 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.7
Cyprus 2.8 3.0 3.0 : : 2.5 : :
Latvia 1.0 0.5 2.1 : : 2.0 1.9 :
Lithuania 3.0 2.8 3.1 : : 2.8 3.1 :
Luxembourg 2.3 1.7 2.0 : : 1.6 2.3 :
Malta 4.3 4.1 3.9 : : 3.9 : :
Netherlands 1.6 1.3 1.5 : 1.6 1.4 1.6 :
Austria 1.0 −0.3 1.1 : : −0.3 1.1 :
Portugal 1.9 1.8 2.2 : : 2.0 2.0 :
Slovenia 2.5 2.0 2.2 : : 1.8 2.6 :
Slovakia 2.3 1.5 2.1 : : 1.3 2.4 :
Finland 1.5 1.0 0.8 : : 1.0 1.6 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ inflation for 2025
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2024 Spring 2025 December 2024 March 2025 January 2025 April 2025 December 2024 March 2025
Euro area 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
Belgium 2.9 2.8 2.9 : : 3.2 2.9 :
Germany 2.1 2.4 2.4 : : 2.1 2.0 2.4
Estonia 3.6 3.8 4.5 : : 5.8 3.8 :
Ireland 1.9 1.6 2.0 : : 1.9 1.9 :
Greece 2.4 2.8 2.5 : : 2.4 2.7 :
Spain 2.2 2.3 2.1 : : 2.2 2.1 2.5
France 1.9 0.9 1.6 : : 1.3 1.6 1.5
Croatia 3.4 3.4 3.5 : : 3.7 3.3 :
Italy 1.9 1.8 1.5 : : 1.7 2.1 1.7
Cyprus 2.1 2.0 1.9 : : 2.3 : :
Latvia 2.2 3.0 1.4 : : 2.4 2.0 :
Lithuania 1.7 2.6 2.3 : : 3.5 2.3 :
Luxembourg 2.4 2.1 2.6 : : 2.2 2.4 :
Malta 2.2 2.2 2.2 : : 2.1 : :
Netherlands 2.4 3.0 3.2 : : 2.8 2.7 :
Austria 2.1 2.9 2.4 : : 3.2 2.1 :
Portugal 2.1 2.1 2.1 : : 1.9 2.2 :
Slovenia 3.2 2.1 2.2 : : 2.6 2.4 :
Slovakia 5.1 4.0 5.0 : : 3.7 4.4 :
Finland 2.0 1.7 1.9 : : 2.0 1.8 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area’s GDP growth and inflation for 2025 and 2026
(%)
Forecast
GDP growth
Inflation
2025 2026 2025 2026
European Commission – Autumn 2024 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.9
Economic forecasts Spring 2025 0.9 1.4 2.1 1.7
ECB – December 2024 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9
Macroeconomic Projections March 2025 0.9 1.2 2.3 1.9
IMF – January 2025 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.0
World Economic Outlook April 2025 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.9
OECD – December 2024 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.0
Economic Outlook Forecasts March 2025 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.0
Sources: EC Economic Forecast: Autumn 2024, Spring 2025, ECB Macroeconomic Projections: December 2024, March 2025, IMF World Economic Outlook: January 2025, April 2025, OECD Economic Outlook: December 2024, March 2025,
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ GDP growth for 2025
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2024 Spring 2025 December 2024 March 2025 January 2025 April 2025 December 2024 March 2025
Euro area 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.0
Belgium 1.2 0.8 1.2 : : 0.8 1.2 :
Germany 0.7 0.0 0.2 : 0.3 −0.1 0.7 0.4
Estonia 1.1 1.1 1.6 : : 0.7 1.7 :
Ireland 4.0 3.4 4.0 : : 2.3 3.7 :
Greece 2.3 2.3 2.5 : : 2.0 2.2 :
Spain 2.3 2.6 2.5 : 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.6
France 0.8 0.6 0.9 : 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8
Croatia 3.3 3.2 3.3 : : 3.1 3.0 :
Italy 1.0 0.7 0.8 : 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.7
Cyprus 2.8 3.0 3.0 : : 2.5 : :
Latvia 1.0 0.5 2.1 : : 2.0 1.9 :
Lithuania 3.0 2.8 3.1 : : 2.8 3.1 :
Luxembourg 2.3 1.7 2.0 : : 1.6 2.3 :
Malta 4.3 4.1 3.9 : : 3.9 : :
Netherlands 1.6 1.3 1.5 : 1.6 1.4 1.6 :
Austria 1.0 −0.3 1.1 : : −0.3 1.1 :
Portugal 1.9 1.8 2.2 : : 2.0 2.0 :
Slovenia 2.5 2.0 2.2 : : 1.8 2.6 :
Slovakia 2.3 1.5 2.1 : : 1.3 2.4 :
Finland 1.5 1.0 0.8 : : 1.0 1.6 :
Sources: See first table
Forecasts for the euro area member countries’ inflation for 2025
(%)
European Commission
ECB
IMF
OECD
Autumn 2024 Spring 2025 December 2024 March 2025 January 2025 April 2025 December 2024 March 2025
Euro area 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
Belgium 2.9 2.8 2.9 : : 3.2 2.9 :
Germany 2.1 2.4 2.4 : : 2.1 2.0 2.4
Estonia 3.6 3.8 4.5 : : 5.8 3.8 :
Ireland 1.9 1.6 2.0 : : 1.9 1.9 :
Greece 2.4 2.8 2.5 : : 2.4 2.7 :
Spain 2.2 2.3 2.1 : : 2.2 2.1 2.5
France 1.9 0.9 1.6 : : 1.3 1.6 1.5
Croatia 3.4 3.4 3.5 : : 3.7 3.3 :
Italy 1.9 1.8 1.5 : : 1.7 2.1 1.7
Cyprus 2.1 2.0 1.9 : : 2.3 : :
Latvia 2.2 3.0 1.4 : : 2.4 2.0 :
Lithuania 1.7 2.6 2.3 : : 3.5 2.3 :
Luxembourg 2.4 2.1 2.6 : : 2.2 2.4 :
Malta 2.2 2.2 2.2 : : 2.1 : :
Netherlands 2.4 3.0 3.2 : : 2.8 2.7 :
Austria 2.1 2.9 2.4 : : 3.2 2.1 :
Portugal 2.1 2.1 2.1 : : 1.9 2.2 :
Slovenia 3.2 2.1 2.2 : : 2.6 2.4 :
Slovakia 5.1 4.0 5.0 : : 3.7 4.4 :
Finland 2.0 1.7 1.9 : : 2.0 1.8 :
Sources: See first table

Latest macroeconomic forecasts

European Commission: in the spring 2025 forecast, projected GDP growth for 2025 was revised down from 1.3% (in the autumn 2024 forecast) to 0.9%; the forecast of 1.6% growth in 2026 was revised down to 1.4%. In the spring 2025 forecast, annual inflation for 2025 was projected at 2.1%, unchanged compared with the previous forecast, while a forecast of 1.7% for 2026 represented a downward revision (from 1.9%). The latest forecast reflects the impact of increased tariffs and the heightened uncertainty caused by the abrupt changes in the trade policy of the United States and the unpredictability of the final configuration of tariffs. Despite these challenges, euro area growth is expected to rise in 2026. Disinflation is anticipated to proceed more swiftly than expected and headline inflation in the euro area is expected to meet the ECB target by mid-2025. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.

ECB: the latest ECB Macroeconomic Projections for the euro area were published in March 2025. In the medium term, GDP growth is expected to strengthen, supported by consumption growth, increasing investment and foreign demand, and by the fading of the dampening effects from past monetary policy tightening. Euro area economic growth was projected at 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Compared with the December 2024 projections, real GDP growth was projected to be slower in 2025 and 2026, both revised down by 0.2 percentage points. Annual inflation is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Compared with the previous forecast, the rate for 2025 was revised up by 0.2 points.

IMF: in the World Economic Outlook of April 2025, euro area GDP is projected to expand by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, marking downward revisions of 0.2 percentage points for both years compared with the previous forecast from January 2025. Annual inflation is projected to be 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, unchanged for 2025 and revised down 0.1 points for 2026 compared with the previous forecast. Weak consumer sentiment and elevated uncertainty have raised precautionary saving while weighing down consumption growth. Rising uncertainty and tariffs are key drivers of the subdued growth in 2025. Offsetting forces that support the modest pickup in 2026 include stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and a projected fiscal easing in Germany.

OECD (*): in the March 2025 report of the Economic Outlook, real GDP growth in the euro area was projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026; compared with the December 2024 report, these latest figures were both 0.3 points lower. Annual inflation was forecasted at 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026, revised up 0.1 points for 2025 and unchanged for 2026 compared with the December report. Heightened uncertainty is forecasted to keeps growth in the euro area subdued and private sector investment is also adversely affected by higher tariffs. Policy interest rates are projected to ease to 2% by the latter half of 2025.

(*) The euro area aggregate includes only OECD member countries. Croatia, Cyprus and Malta are excluded as they are not members of the OECD.

Trend-cycle estimates

GDP in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Industrial production in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Employment in the euro area

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

GDP in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Industrial production in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters:

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Employment in the EU

Source: Eurostat (own calculations). Note that the primary y-axis is cut.


Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

  • Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
  • Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.