Excess mortality statistics
Data extracted on 11 October 2024
Planned article update: 14 November 2024
Highlights
In August 2024, excess mortality increased in the EU. The indicator reached 6.0% above the baseline.
In August 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. The excess mortality rate was positive in 23 EU countries and negative in 3 of the EU countries for which the data were available.
In August 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in Malta (37.6%), Cyprus (24.1%) and Ireland (19.3%).
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period.
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The European Union (EU) average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since August 2023.
Full article
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
In August 2024, excess mortality in the EU increased to 6.0% above the baseline. In comparison, the indicator was 5.1% in July 2024 (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during August 2024, approximately 21 800 additional deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
In August 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 3 EU countries: the lowest rates were recorded in Latvia (-4.7%), Bulgaria (-2.4%) and Lithuania (-0.6%). On the other hand, 23 EU countries registered excess deaths: the highest rates were observed in Malta (37.6%), Cyprus (24.1%), Ireland (19.3%), the Netherlands (14.4%) and Finland (12.3%). The high values for Malta and Cyprus are likely linked to the heatwaves that occurred during August 2024 in those countries. For comparison, as presented in Table 1, in July 2024, 20 EU countries recorded excess deaths, with the highest rates observed in Malta (26.7%), Greece (25.2%), Cyprus (19.3%) and Portugal (15.3%). Data from Romania for weeks 18-35, covering May, June, July and August 2024, are currently unavailable.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
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Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
Looking at the different weeks of the month, the highest number of additional deaths was recorded in the first week of August 2024 (5 640). Compared with the previous year, in August 2024, there were 6 200 more deaths (21 800) than in August 2023, when there were 15 600 additional deaths in the EU compared with the baseline.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Table 1 shows the respective excess mortality indicator while Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries for the month of August 2024, as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.
- During the first week of August 2024 (week 31), Cyprus recorded the highest excess mortality rate (21.1%). Malta and Belgium followed with rates of 18.1% and 13.5%, respectively.
- In the second week of August 2024 (week 32), Luxembourg had the highest excess mortality rates among the EU countries with 22.9%, followed by Malta with 15.7% and Greece with 12.6%.
- During the third week of August 2024 (week 33), Greece (12.1%), Slovakia (9.7%) and Hungary (9.6%) recorded the highest excess mortality rates.
- In the fourth week of August 2024 (week 34), Cyprus registered the highest excess mortality rate 23.0%, followed by Malta with 16.9% and Denmark with 5.0%.
- During the fifth week of August 2024 (week 35), Malta had the highest excess mortality rate 40.0%, followed by Slovenia with 24.9% and Latvia with 12.4%.
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Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
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Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.
Weekly deaths data for Italy (weeks 32–35) and for Czechia and Slovakia (week 35) are not available. Data for Romania (weeks 18–35) are also not available. The EU aggregate for May and June 2024 was estimated using the latest available data from Romania from the previous weeks, and for July and August 2024, using data from Romania for 2023 (weeks 27–35).
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the World Health Organisation. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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See also
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisations
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time