Excess mortality statistics
Data extracted on 11 September 2024
Planned article update: 16 October 2024
Highlights
In July 2024, excess mortality increased in the EU. The indicator reached 4.7% above the baseline.
In July 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. The excess mortality rate was positive in 20 EU countries and negative in 6.
In July 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in Malta (26.7%), Greece (25.2%) and Cyprus (24.8%).
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period.
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The EU average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since July 2023.
Full article
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
In July 2024, excess mortality in the EU increased to 4.7 % above the baseline. In comparison, the indicator was 3.8 % in June 2024 (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during June 2024, approximately 17 200 additional deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline).
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
In July 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 6 EU countries: the lowest rates were recorded in Latvia (-10.9 %), Lithuania (-4.8 %), Estonia (4.0 %), Slovakia (-3.1 %) and Czechia (-0.3 %). On the other hand, 20 EU countries registered excess deaths: the highest rates were observed in Malta (26.7 %), Greece (25.2%), Cyprus (24.8 %), Ireland (17.2 %) and Portugal (15.3 %). The high values for Malta, Greece and Cyprus are likely linked to the heatwaves that occurred during July 2024 in those countries. For comparison, as presented in Table 1, also in June 2024, 20 EU countries recorded excess deaths, with the highest rates observed in Cyprus (23.1 %), the Ireland (15.4 %), the Netherlands (15.2 %) and Luxembourg (14.1 %). Data from Romania for weeks 18-31, covering May, June, and July 2024, are currently unavailable.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
In July 2024, there were approximately 17 200 additional deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline, as indicated above. Looking at the different weeks of the month the highest number of additional deaths was recorded in the second week of July 2024 (5 880). Compared with the previous year, in July 2023 there were 9 743 additional deaths in the EU compared with the same baseline.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Table 1 shows the respective excess mortality indicator while Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries for the month of July 2024, as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.
- During the first week of July 2024 (week 27), Luxembourg recorded the highest excess mortality rate (43.9 %). Malta and Ireland followed with rates of 23.0 % and 20.0 %, respectively.
- In the second week of July 2024 (week 28), Austria had the highest excess mortality rates among the EU countries with 21.8 %, followed by Slovenia with 21.5 % and the Netherlands with 18.2 %.
- During the third week of July 2024 (week 29), Greece (53.0 %), Cyprus (31.9 %) and Malta (27.4 %) recorded the highest excess mortality rates.
- In the fourth week of July 2024 (week 30), Malta registered the highest excess mortality rate 38.3 %, followed by Greece and Cyprus both with 26.0 %.
- During the fifth week of July 2024 (week 31), Malta had the highest excess mortality rate 36.0 %, followed by Ireland with 20.9 % and Portugal with 14.6 %.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
In the tool below, you may select the country you would like to analyse.
Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.
Weekly deaths data for Romania, Italy and Iceland for weeks 27-31 (July 2024) are not available. The EU excess mortality indicator for May and June was calculated using the latest available provisional data from Romania. The indicator for July 2024 was based on data from Romania covering weeks 27-31 of 2023. Weekly deaths data from Romania for 2024 are available up to week 17, which corresponds up to April 2024.
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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See also
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisations
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time