Statistics Explained

Archive:Enlargement countries - statistics on migration, residence permits, citizenship and asylum

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Data extracted in June 2021.

Planned article update: May 2022.

Highlights

The number of citizens of North Macedonia receiving citizenship in the EU in 2019 was 110 % more than in 2009, while for citizens of Turkey the number declined by 36 % and for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina it fell by 27 %.

In 2019, 60 384 Albanians were granted first residence permits of an EU Member State, principally in Italy (35 %), Greece (26 %) and Germany (20 %).

The number of first-time asylum applicants in the EU from Turkey in 2020 increased by 213 % over 2010.

While 9 % or fewer of first instance decisions in 2020 on applications from citizens of six of the candidate countries and potential candidates were positive, 43 % of all decisions of this type relating to citizens of Turkey were positive.

First residence permits issued within the EU to citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates by reason of issuing, 2019
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_resfirst)

This article is part of an online publication for the European Union (EU) candidate countries and potential candidates, in other words the enlargement countries. Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Turkey currently have candidate status, while Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Kosovo* are potential candidates.

The article starts with an overview of the size of and changes in the population in each of the candidate countries and potential candidates and examines the two factors of change: natural change from births and deaths on the one hand and international migration on the other. It then focuses on citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates living within the EU, presenting information for the number having had residence permits issued to them and their acquisition of citizenship of an EU Member State. It concludes with information concerning citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates having applied for asylum in the Member States.

Full article

Population change: natural change and net migration

Population change in a given year is the difference between the population size measured on 1 January of the year in question and the size on the same day the following year. It consists of two components: natural population change and net migration, plus statistical adjustment. Natural population change is the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths. Net migration figures are calculated by Eurostat by taking the difference between total (overall) population change and natural change: the difference is referred to as net migration plus statistical adjustment. The statistics on net migration plus statistical adjustment are therefore affected by any statistical inaccuracies in the two components (total and natural population change).

Data on the population, natural change, and net migration and statistical adjustment of the candidate countries and potential candidates, as well as the EU, are shown in Table 1 for the period 2009-2019. To place the data in context, at the beginning of 2019, Turkey was by far the most populous candidate country or potential candidate, with 82 million inhabitants. Montenegro was the smallest candidate country or potential candidate in population terms, with 622 thousand inhabitants. The population of Turkey was 4.6 times as large as the population of all the other candidate countries or potential candidates combined; 11.8 times as large as that of the next largest candidate country or potential candidate, Serbia, and 131.8 times as large as that of Montenegro.


Table 1: Population, natural change and net migration, 2009-2019
Source: Eurostat (demo_gind)

Changes in the number of inhabitants over the period 2009-2019 showed different trends among the candidate countries and potential candidates. The population of Turkey grew by an annual average of 1.4 %, while the number of inhabitants in North Macedonia and Montenegro both grew by a modest annual average of 0.1 %. This was similar to the annual average population growth rate in the EU over 2009-2019, 0.1 %. Elsewhere among the candidate countries and potential candidates, the population declined by an annual average of -0.3 % in Albania; -0.5 % in Serbia (break in series); -1.0 % in Bosnia and Herzegovina (break in series); and -1.9 % in Kosovo (break in series).

Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were the only candidate countries and potential candidates that had a negative natural population change during the period 2009-2019, meaning that they had a higher number of deaths than births. The annual average natural population change for Serbia 2009-2019 was -0.5 %. It cannot be calculated for Bosnia and Herzegovina due to missing observations. For the other candidate countries and potential candidates, the annual average natural population change 2009-2019 was: North Macedonia, 0.1 %; Montenegro, 0.2 %; Albania 0.4 %; Kosovo 0.8 % and Turkey 1.2 %. The European Union has seen a decline in the natural population since 2012; its annual average natural rate of change over 2009-2019 was 0.0 %.

Net migration and statistical adjustment trends also differed among the candidate countries and potential candidates over the period 2009-2019. Note that the annual averages for net migration plus those for natural population change may not add up to the total population change due to rounding. Turkey recorded an increase due to migration (and statistical adjustment) in each year, leading to an annual average growth of 0.3 % over the period 2009-2019. North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania recorded a population decrease due to net migration and statistical adjustment in every year from 2009 to 2019, except in 2017 and 2018 in North Macedonia. Annual average changes due to migration and statistical adjustment over the period 2009-2019 were for North Macedonia 0.0 %; Montenegro -0.2 %; and Albania -0.7 %. Serbia recorded an increase or a balanced position due to net migration and statistical adjustment in nearly every year, leading to an annual average population change due to net migration and statistical adjustment of 0.0 % over 2009-2019. Kosovo recorded a negative value for net migration and statistical adjustment most years, with positive values in 2012 and 2017; note that there are breaks in series in 2010 and 2011 and the particularly large negative value recorded for 2010 probably reflects a large statistical adjustment. The situation for Bosnia and Herzegovina was most uneven, with positive values in 2009, 2010 and 2013, negative values in 2011 and 2017, and an almost balanced value in the remaining years for which data are available. The European Union has a consistently positive figure for net migration and had an annual average increase in population due to net migration and statistical adjustment over 2009-2019 of 0.2 %.

Residence permits

Some of the people who emigrate from candidate countries and potential candidates move to EU Member States and are issued with residence permits. Statistics are compiled by the EU on both flows and stocks of residence permits.

Statistics are compiled on the number of new residents in the Member States who have been issued with their first residence permit during a calendar year. In general, this figure excludes renewals of existing permits, but a residence permit is also considered to be a first permit if the time gap between the expiry of an old permit and the start of validity of the new permit issued for the same reason is at least six months. This concept represents the ‘flow’ of persons establishing residency.

The number of persons with valid residence permits at the end of each year is a measure of the stock of all people with residence permits. It is not limited to first residence permits. Figure 1 summarises both statistics: the number of people with residence permits is inevitably much greater than the number of first residence permits.


Figure 1: Citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates to whom first residence permits were issued and those with valid residence permits within the EU, 2009 and 2019
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_resfirst) and (migr_resvalid)

More than 328 000 citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates were issued with first residence permits in 2019 by EU Member States, an increase of 59 % compared with 2009. 23 % of the citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates issued with first residence permits by EU Member States in 2019 were citizens of Turkey; 19 % were citizens of Serbia; 18 % were Albanians; 17 % were citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina; 13 % were citizens of Kosovo; 8 % were citizens of North Macedonia; and 1 % of Montenegro.

Comparing the situation in 2019 with that in 2009, the number of Albanians issued with first residence permits fell by 28 %, while elsewhere it had risen. The number of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina who received first residence permits increased by just over 350 %; the number of Montenegrins having received a first permit in 2019 showed an increase of over 250 % over the number in 2009; Serbians received almost 150 % more; while for citizens of Kosovo the number had more than doubled. Citizens of Turkey received 52 % more first residence permits in 2019 than in 2009.

As of the end of 2019, there were 4.26 million citizens of the candidate countries and potential candidates with valid permits to reside in the EU Member States. This was 3 % more than at the end of 2009. More than two fifths, 43 %, of the citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates who held valid permits at the end of 2019 were held by citizens of Turkey; one fifth, 20 % by Albanians; 12 % by citizens of Serbia; 10 % by those of Bosnia and Herzegovina; 8 % by citizens of Kosovo; 5 % by those of North Macedonia; and 1 % of those of Montenegro.

Comparing the situation at the end of 2019 with that at the end of 2009, the number of Serbian, Albanian and Turkish citizens holding valid permits had fallen by 16 %, 8 % and 4 %, respectively, while the number of citizens of other candidate countries and potential candidates holding valid permits had risen. Citizens of North Macedonia holding valid EU residence permits at the end of 2019 increased in number by 21 % compared with 2009; and those of Bosnia and Herzegovina by 34 %. The number of Montenegrins holding valid residence permits at the end of 2019 was 93 % higher than at the end of 2009, while for citizens of Kosovo the number was over 150 % greater.

Figure 2: First residence permits issued within the EU to citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates by reason for issuing, 2019
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_resfirst)

Among the more than 328 000 citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates issued with first residence permits in 2019, 38 % were for employment, up from 29 % in 2009; 36 % were for family reasons, down from 42 % in 2009; 7 % for education, 8 % in 2009; and 20 % for other reasons, having been 22 % in 2009. These include international protection, residence without the right to work, for example pensioners, or people in the intermediate stages of a regularisation process.

As can be seen from Figure 2, the reasons for which first permits were issued in 2019 varied among the candidate countries and potential candidates. The most common reason was employment for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, accounting for 63 % of the total; those of Serbia, 52 %; North Macedonia, 43 %; and Montenegro, 35 %. More people were issued with first permits for family reasons than for other specified reasons for citizens of Albania, 48 % of the total; for Kosovars 41 %; and for citizens of Turkey, 38 %.


Table 2: First residence permits issued by EU Member States to citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates, 2019
Source: Eurostat (migr_resfirst)

Table 2 shows the numbers of first residence permits issued to citizens of the candidate countries and potential candidates by the EU Member States issuing the largest number of these permits in 2019. Table 3 shows the numbers of citizens of the candidate countries and potential candidates holding residence permits by the EU Member States issuing the largest number of these permits in 2019.

Germany issued the largest numbers of first residence permits for citizens of five of the candidate countries and potential candidates in 2019, the two exceptions being for citizens of Albania who were more likely to have received a first residence permit from Italy or Greece; and for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who received more permits from Croatia. More than half of Montenegrins and Kosovars received their permit from Germany. Germany, Croatia and Slovenia were the top three EU Member states issuing first resident permits to five candidate countries and potential candidates: Bosnia and Herzegovina (86 % of the EU total), Kosovo (79 %), North Macedonia (71 %), Montenegro (70 %) and Serbia (60 %). Turkish citizens received 53 % of their EU first residence permits from Germany, Netherlands and France.


Table 3: Valid residence permits issued by EU Member States to citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates, 2019
(number of persons)
Source: Eurostat (migr_resfirst) and (migr_resvalid)

For six of the candidate countries and potential candidates, the largest number of their citizens holding valid residence permits at the end of 2019 was recorded in Germany, the exception being for citizens of Albania who were more likely to hold a valid residence permit from Italy or Greece. More than half of EU residence permits to citizens of Turkey, Montenegro and Kosovo, valid at the end of 2019, were provided by Germany, at 70 %, 60 % and 59 %, respectively, of the EU total. In addition to Italy being the largest provider of residence permits valid at the end of 2019 to Albanians, at 48 % of the total, Italy was also the second largest EU provider of these residence permits to citizens of North Macedonia (27 %) and Kosovars (13 %); and the third largest EU provider to citizens of Montenegro (6.5 %) and Serbia (7.4 %).

Italy, Greece and Germany together accounted for 96 % of Albanians holding valid residence permits in the EU at the end of 2019, the highest share accounted for by the top three Member States recorded by any of the candidate countries and potential candidates. Serbian citizens holding valid permits from Germany, Austria and Italy at the end of 2019 accounted for 75 % of all Serbian citizens holding EU residence permits at that time. Germany, Austria and Slovenia accounted for 81 % of all valid permits in the EU for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina at the end of 2019.

Acquisition of citizenship

Citizenship of an EU Member State brings new rights and opportunities, such as the rights to move, live and work freely within the EU.

During 2019, 104 000 citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates acquired the citizenship of an EU Member State. The data is shown in Figure 3. Albanians made up 40 % of all citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates who acquired the citizenship of an EU Member State in that year; while 28 % were citizens of Turkey, 10 % were citizens of Serbia; 8 % were from Kosovo; 7 % were citizens of North Macedonia; 7 % were from Bosnia and Herzegovina; and 1 % were citizens of Montenegro.


Figure 3: Persons acquiring citizenship of an EU Member State, 2009 and 2019
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_acq)

The number of citizens of North Macedonia acquiring the citizenship of an EU Member State more than doubled from 2009 to 2019, while the number of Montenegrin citizens acquiring EU Member State citizenship increased by 91 %. The number of Albanian citizens who acquired the citizenship of an EU Member State was 67 % higher in 2019 than in 2009. A decrease of 20 % in the number of Serbian citizens acquiring EU citizenship was recorded in 2019, compared with 2009. The number of people acquiring citizenship of an EU Member State in 2019 was also lower than in 2009 for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, down 27 %, and for citizens of Turkey, down 36 %. There was no comparable data for Kosovo in 2009.

Asylum applicants and first instance decisions in the EU

This section describes recent developments in relation to the number of asylum applicants in the EU from citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates as well as decisions on applications for international protection.

Asylum is a form of international protection given by a state on its territory. It is granted to a person who is unable to seek protection in his/her country of citizenship and/or residence, in particular for fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.

An asylum applicant or asylum seeker is recorded in statistics as a person who has applied for international protection during the reference period or having been included in such an application as a family member. A first time asylum applicant for international protection in the statistics published by Eurostat is a person who has applied for international protection for the first time in an EU Member State. The term ‘first time’ implies no time limits and therefore a person can be recorded as a first time applicant only if he or she had never applied for international protection in the reporting country in the past, irrespective of whether or not he or she is found to have applied in another EU Member State. An individual may apply for international protection in more than one Member State in a given reference year. Consequently, the EU total may include such multiple applications by a single person.

Data for each Member State refer to the number of persons applying for asylum for the first time in that Member State. The EU total is calculated as the sum of data for the EU Member States. Figure 4 shows first time asylum applicants to EU countries by citizens of candidate and potential candidate countries for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020.


Figure 4: First time asylum applicants to EU countries by citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates, 2010, 2015 and 2020
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_asyappctza)

The number of first-time asylum applicants in the EU in 2020 who were citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates was 24 105. This was 86 % lower than in 2015 and 40 % lower than 2010.

Comparing the situation in 2020 with that in 2010, the number of first time asylum applicants in the EU from Serbia fell by 88 %, from Kosovo by 87 % and from North Macedonia by 86 %. First time asylum applications by citizens of Montenegro fell by 57 % and from those of Bosnia and Herzegovina by 44 %. In contrast, the number of applicants from citizens of Turkey and Albania increased respectively by over 200 % and by nearly 500 % compared with 2010.

Of the citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates who were first time asylum applicants in the EU in 2020, 58 % were Turkish citizens and 21 % were Albanians. Shares were recorded for citizens of Serbia of 7 %; Kosovo, 6 %; Bosnia and Herzegovina, 4 %; North Macedonia, 3 %; and Montenegro 1 %.


Figure 5: First instance decisions by EU countries on applications for asylum from citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates, 2020
(number)
Source: Eurostat (migr_asydcfsta)

Data on first instance decisions on asylum applications are shown in Figure 5. Some applications rejected at first instance may subsequently be accepted in a final decision after an appeal or review.

In 2020, 36 270 first instance decisions on asylum applications from citizens of candidate countries and potential candidates were made in the EU Member States. Of these applications, 76 % were rejected. The largest numbers of first instance decisions were issued for applications from Turkish and Albanian citizens, 50 % and 25 %, respectively, of the total number of applications in the EU from citizens of the candidate countries and potential candidates. The share of first instance decisions for applications from citizens of Serbia and Kosovo was 8 % for each; from North Macedonia 5 %; from Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 %; and from Montenegro 1 %.

The proportion of positive first instance decisions was 24 % over the whole region. Applications from Turkish citizens resulted in positive decisions in 43 % cases. Concerning Kosovo citizens, 9 % of their applications had a positive decision. As a consequence of the high proportion of positive first instance decisions, applications from Turkish citizens accounted for 89 % of all positive first instance decisions on applications from citizens of the enlargement countries.

Source data for tables and figures (MS Excel)

Data sources

Eurostat provides a wide range of demographic data, including statistics on populations at national and regional level, as well as for various demographic factors influencing the size, the structure and the specific characteristics of these populations. The population data presented in this article were collected from enlargement countries alongside Eurostat’s regular collection of population data from EU Member States and EFTA countries. The data on residence permits, the acquisition of citizenship, asylum and first instance decisions form part of a regular collection of data from Member States and EFTA countries.

Eurostat collects data in its demography data collection exercise in relation to the population as of 1 January each year. The recommended definition is the ‘usual resident population’ and represents the number of inhabitants of a given area on 1 January of the year in question (or, in some cases, on 31 December of the previous year).

Data related to residence permits are generally based on administrative sources. Commission Regulation (EU) No 216/2010 on Community statistics on migration and international protection, as regards the definitions of categories of the reasons for the residence permits provides the list and definition of reasons for permits being issued.

It should be noted that certain methodological aspects are not fully harmonised between the reporting countries due to different legal or information technology systems. See a general article on first residence permits for more information.

Since 2008 data on acquisitions of citizenship have been collected by Eurostat under the provisions of Regulation (EC) No 862/2007 on migration statistics. Citizenship is the particular legal bond between an individual and his or her State, acquired by birth or naturalisation, whether by declaration, choice, marriage or other means according to the national legislation. International law does not provide detailed rules, but it recognises the competence of every state in cases like: spouses of citizens, minors adopted by citizens, descendants of citizens born abroad returning to the country of origin of their ancestors. Countries differ considerably in terms of the conditions to be fulfilled to acquire citizenship: in general, a period of legally registered residence is required, combined with other factors such as evidence of social and economic integration and knowledge of national languages. Different conditions may apply for persons who were born in the country concerned (jus soli), or who have parents or other relatives with that country’s citizenship (jus sanguinis). Detailed information on the different modes of acquisition of citizenship in force in different countries can be found at the Global Citizenship Observatory (GLOBALCIT).

Equally, data related to asylum have also been provided to Eurostat since 2008, again under the provisions of Regulation (EC) 862/2007. Data are provided with a monthly frequency for asylum application statistics and a quarterly frequency for first instance decisions; data are also collected with an annual frequency for final decisions based on appeal or review, resettlement and unaccompanied minors. These statistics are based on administrative sources and are supplied to Eurostat by statistical authorities, home office ministries/ministries of the interior or related immigration agencies.

First instance decisions are decisions granted by the respective authority acting as a first instance of the administrative/judicial asylum procedure in the receiving country.

The United Nations publishes estimates on migration which can be found on their website.

Tables in this article use the following notation:

Value in italics     data value is forecasted, provisional or estimated and is therefore likely to change;
: not available, confidential or unreliable value.

Context

Statistics on population change and the structure of population are increasingly used to support policymaking and provide an opportunity to monitor demographic behaviour within an economic, social and cultural context. Indeed, the EU’s population is ageing as consistently low birth rates and higher life expectancy transform the shape of its age pyramid.

Migration policies within the EU are built upon solidarity and responsibility, taking account of the contribution that immigrants make to the EU’s economic development and performance. Within the European Commission, the Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs is responsible for immigration policy. EU policy measures on legal immigration cover the conditions of entry and residence for certain categories of immigrants, such as highly qualified workers subject to the ‘EU Blue Card Directive’, students and researchers, as well as family reunification and long-term residents: see New Pact on Migration and Asylum for more information.

In May 2013, the European Commission published the EU Citizenship Report 2013 (COM(2013) 269 final). The report noted that EU citizenship brings new rights and opportunities. Moving and living freely within the EU is the right most closely associated with EU citizenship. Given modern technology and the fact that it is now easier to travel, freedom of movement allows EU citizens to expand their horizons beyond national borders, to leave their country for shorter or longer periods, to come and go between EU Member States to work, study and train, to travel for business or for leisure, or to shop across borders. Free movement potentially increases social and cultural interactions within the EU and closer bonds between EU citizens. In addition, it may generate mutual economic benefits for businesses and consumers.

The 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the status of refugees (as amended by the 1967 New York Protocol) has, for around 70 years, defined who is a refugee, and laid down a common approach towards refugees that has been one of the cornerstones for the development of a common asylum system within the EU. Since 1999, the EU has worked towards creating a common European asylum regime in accordance with the Geneva Convention and other applicable international instruments. More information is available in an article on asylum statistics.

Eurostat has the responsibility to monitor that statistical production of the candidate countries and potential candidates complies with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. To do so, Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as pilot surveys, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS). The ultimate goal is the provision of harmonised, high-quality data that conforms to European and international standards.

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the enlargement countries is provided here.

Notes

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

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Database

Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (demo_gind)
Acquisition and loss of citizenship (migr_acqn)
Acquisition of citizenship by age group, sex and former citizenship (migr_acq)
Asylum and Dublin statistics (migr_asy)
Applications (migr_asyapp)
Decisions on applications and resettlement (migr_asydec)
Residence permits (migr_res)
Residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship (migr_resval)

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