Climate change - driving forces

Based on data available in February 2017. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Database. Planned article update: September 2018.

This article presents some of the driving forces behind greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU), on the basis of statistics available from Eurostat that help to understand the development in GHG emissions. Anthropogenic climate change, or in other words climate change caused by humans, is a result of GHG emissions due to human activities. The EU is an ambitious contributor to the global efforts to fight climate change and reduce GHG emissions. The central aim of the Paris Agreement on climate change, which entered into force on 4 November 2016, is to hold the increase in the global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This article shows that GHG emissions in the EU-28 decreased by almost one quarter since 1990. The main driving forces behind the fall in total GHG emissions are improvements in energy efficiency and in the energy mix. Due to technological change and innovation, less energy was consumed while more goods and services were produced. In addition, they enabled the use of less carbon intensive fuels and more renewables. As a result, the EU decoupled its economic growth from its GHG emissions, because these technical developments make it possible to increase economic growth while emitting fewer emissions. The largest reduction took place in 2009 when emissions fell sharply by more than 370 million tonnes CO2-equivalent, or 7.2%. This particularly steep decline can be partly attributed to the effects of the economic crisis in general as emissions decreased across all source sectors.

Main statistical findings 

This statistical article is organised following the main source sectors as reported in GHG emissions inventories. First an overall picture is given, followed by a sequence in which the development of emissions from each specific source sector is presented, coupled with the developments for the underlying drivers. The aim is to help the reader to understand which factors influence the development of GHG emissions.

The European statistical system (ESS) collects official statistics, some of which are used to estimate GHG emissions that are reported in GHG inventories. While national statistical institutes are usually not directly responsible for compiling GHG inventory data, they often support the compilation by providing auxiliary input data.

In the EU, GHG inventories of Member States are collected by the European Environment Agency (EEA) on behalf of the European Commission, more specifically the Directorate-General for Climate Action, in order to produce the EU GHG inventory. Eurostat contributes to the validation of the GHG inventories by providing energy statistics to the EEA. Eurostat also has a range of statistics that provides a solid basis for analysing the driving forces behind GHG emissions.

Total emissions, main breakdowns by sources and general drivers

Figure 1: Greenhouse gas emissions, EU-28, 1990-2014 (index 1990 = 100)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

The overall development of total GHG emissions is clearly on the right path; in 2014 total GHG emissions equalled 4.4 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent compared to 5.7 billion tonnes in 1990, a decrease of 1.3 billion tonnes, or 23 %. Figure 1 shows that the EU is well on track to reduce its GHG emissions and has already surpassed its target of a reduction by 20 % that was set for 2020. However, the EU's ambitious target for 2030, a reduction of GHG emissions by at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels, implies that this downward trend has to be maintained and even reinforced.[1] That a continuous decrease of GHG emissions should not be taken for granted can be seen from the approximated EU-28 GHG inventory for 2015, an early estimate produced by the EEA that reports that GHG emissions have increased somewhat from 2014 to 2015.

Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions by country, absolute change 1990-2014 (million tonnes)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

The difference across Member States in the absolute change in GHG emissions is shown in Figure 2, indicating the range of absolute changes. These absolute changes add up to the EU-28 total reduction of 1.3 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Note that the ranking would change to a large extent if the relative changes or the changes in emissions per capita were compared. The rest of this Statistics Explained article will focus on the aggregate EU-28. More information for individual Member States can be retrieved from the Statistics Explained article 'Greenhouse gas emission statistics' and the GHG inventory dataset in Eurostat's database.

The greenhouse gas emissions reported in Figure 1 are all due to human activities. Therefore, one may think that more people would cause more GHG emissions. In addition, most of these human activities are economic activities, for example to produce and consume goods and services. Hence, one may also expect that more economic activity would produce more GHG emissions. The most general indicator for economic activity is gross domestic product (GDP).  

Figure 3: Development of greenhouse gas emissions compared to GDP and population, EU-28, 1990-2014 (index 1995 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (nama_10_gdp) (demo_gind) and EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Figure 3 shows that the development trend of both GDP and population is upward. The average total population of the EU has slowly but steadily increased since 1990. This means that the GHG emissions per person in the EU are declining slightly more than the total GHG emissions, but with a comparable pattern.

GDP had been strongly increasing up to the start of the economic crisis in 2008. However, from 2009 onwards, EU GDP was already slowly recovering and GDP was back at the same level as before the crisis in 2014. The large drop in GHG emissions in 2009 is clearly related to the economic recession, but the overall decreasing trend in GHG emissions can certainly not be attributed to a fall in economic activity. In fact, there is a clear divergence, or decoupling, between economic activity and GHG emissions, resulting in a strong downward trend in the GHG emission intensity of economic activity, measured as GHG emissions per unit of GDP.

So while GHG emissions per person decreased by 22 % over the last 20 years (1995-2014), population increased by 5 % and GDP measured in volume terms increased by 36 % over this same period. This implies that there must have been changes in how these human activities were carried out, so that even with almost continuous economic growth and increasing population, greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced.

Figure 4: Greenhouse gas emissions by IPCC source sector, EU-28, 2014
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

To better understand the driving forces behind the reduction in GHG emissions, we need to look in more detail at the sources of these GHG emissions and the underlying human activities. Figure 4 shows the GHG emissions broken down by source sectors as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). International aviation is included in all graphs and statistics presenting totals and GHG emissions from transport in this article, although it is officially reported as memo item in the GHG inventories.

Figure 5: Greenhouse gas emissions by IPCC source sector, EU-28, change from 1990 to 2014 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent and % change)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Over three-quarters of the GHG emissions are due to fuel combustion. This includes fuel combustion to generate electricity and heat, produce goods, construct buildings and infrastructure, and to move freight and persons. The combustion of fossil fuels is the largest contributor to GHG emission from this source, but the combustion of other fuels, such as waste, also generates GHG emissions. Even without combustion, GHG are still emitted from fuels as so-called fugitive emissions; emissions that simply leak into the air, for example from pressurized equipment or from storage tanks. The remaining share, just over a fifth, is due to other activities that do not involve fuel combustion. It includes industrial processes and product uses, agricultural activities, and waste management.

Overall, GHG emissions have been declining, and this also holds for most source sectors (see Figure 5). However, there is one exception; GHG emissions from transport, including international aviation, have increased by 172 million tonnes, or 20 %, compared to 1990. The largest absolute decrease in emissions occurred in the fuel combustion by energy industries, which mainly produce electricity, heat and derived fuels. An impressive change in both absolute and relative terms can be seen for fuel combustion in manufacturing industries and construction. Fugitive emissions from fuels and waste management also show large relative changes, but their share in the overall total is much less, as shown in Figure 4, and hence the absolute changes are smaller.

In the remainder of this article we will look at the source sectors in more detail and try to unravel what is behind these changes. In case of a fall in emissions, it may be that the activity itself takes place less often, or it may be that the GHG efficiency of the activity has improved. Improved GHG efficiency means that per standard amount of the activity, for example producing one product or processing one kilogram of waste, less GHG are emitted than before.

Fuel combustion

Total GHG emissions from fuel combustion have decreased by over 850 million tonnes, even with the increase of GHG emissions in transport. Energy statistics are the most important source of information to identify the driving forces behind these changes. Different types of fuels can be combusted in order to transform the energy that these fuels contain into a form of energy needed for our economy to function, for example energy to power our machines or to heat our homes. Energy statistics provide information on the source of energy, the type of energy generated, and the final energy user.

Although total gross inland energy consumption of the EU-28 has remained rather stable over the last 25 years (less than 4 % lower in 2014 compared to 1990), the energy profiles for the different fuel combustion sectors show mixed pictures. Below the three fuel combustion sectors with decreasing GHG emissions are first discussed in more detail, before we turn to the increasing GHG emissions from the transport sector.

Energy industries

Figure 6: Greenhouse gas emissions due to fuel combustion, excluding transport, EU-28, 1990-2014 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Total GHG emissions of fuel combustion by the energy industries have fallen strongly from 1990 to 2014 by 413 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent or 25 %. At the same time, the production of electricity and heat has increased by 15 %. The driving force of this decoupling is the change in fuel mix.

There has not been a steady change in the GHG emissions, as Figure 6 shows. In the first years after 1990, GHG emissions fell somewhat, which was likely due to the reforms and structural changes in eastern European countries. The increase in the availability of natural gas also promoted the switch from coal-fired electricity plants to gas-fired plants. However, after 2000, the starting level was nearly attained again within four years due to the economic boom. The large downturn only really started just ahead of the economic recession around 2008, aided by the increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix, among other factors.

Figure 7: Electricity and heat production by fuel, EU-28, 1990 and 2014 (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: Eurostat (nrg_105a) (nrg_106a)

Of the GHG emissions from fuel combustion by energy industries, 86 % is due to public electricity and heat production. Figure 7 compares, by type of fuel, the production of electricity and heat in 2014 and 1990. What is most remarkable is the increase by 15 % of the total production of electricity and heat, from 285 to 328 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE). However, the energy sources that have contributed most to this increase in absolute terms are renewable ones, with 62 MTOE, and natural gas, with 31 MTOE. Renewable energy sources are CO2 emission neutral from a reporting perspective. Either they do not generate GHG emissions when generating electricity, for example wind power, or they only release GHG emissions that have been locked into a fuel that is renewable in the short-term, for example wood and other biomass when grown sustainably.[2] Whereas electricity from wind or solar power is emission free at the point of generation, the combustion of natural gas still produces GHG emissions. However, it does not produce as much emissions as the combustion of solid and liquid fossil fuels.

Figure 8: Gross electricity generation from renewable energy (thousand tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: Eurostat (nrg_105a)

Figure 7 also shows that the use of solid fuels and crude oil and petroleum products both reduced significantly from 1990 to 2014. The use of solid fuels fell by 38 % from 122 MTOE to 84 MTOE. The use of crude oil and petroleum products fell by 23 % from 30 MTOE to 8 MTOE. These are both fuel types with high emission coefficients; in other words, fuel types that emit relatively large amounts of GHG when they are combusted.

Renewables can also replace fossil fuels indirectly by substituting electricity generated from fossil fuels by electricity generated from renewable energy sources. Examples are electric cars, electric cooking and electric heating, which do not combust fuels on the spot. Hence, electricity from renewable sources has a large potential to reduce GHG emissions from fuel combustion.

Figure 8 shows in more detail which types of renewables have contributed most to the increase in electricity generated from this source. From the first years of the new millennium, electricity generated from renewable energy has almost tripled. Whereas hydro-electric power was almost completely responsible for all renewable electricity generated in 1990, it generated just over 40 % of the electricity in 2014. Wind power has clearly seen the largest overall increase, while solar photovoltaic power has just caught up on the other renewable energy sources over the last few years.

Manufacturing industries and construction

Figure 9: Production volume of manufacturing and construction, EU-28, 1990-2014 (index 1996 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a) (sts_copr_a)

Fuel combustion in manufacturing industries and construction is the source sector with the second largest reduction in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2014 by over 370 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent (Figure 5). The fall in emissions is driven by an increase in energy efficiency, in other words producing more output with less energy, and a change in the fuel mix.

Figure 5 also shows that the reduction in GHG emissions by around 40 % in this source sector is the largest relative decrease of all the fuel combustion source sectors. Figure 6 illustrates that this has been a steady path over the years, with only very little to show for the economic recession.

Figure 10: Final energy consumption of industry by fuel, EU-28, 1990 and 2014 (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: Eurostat (nrg_110a)

This is in contrast to the production volume by manufacturing and construction, which has increased over these years as shown by Figure 9. Manufacturing output has increased most years, with only a large drop in the year 2009 as a result of the recession. Construction output shows a slightly different path, because the impact of the economic recession has led to a continuous reduction in construction output. The fall in output has lasted up to 2013 and the level is now just below that of the nineties. Still, for a decade prior to the recession, construction output rose by around 20 % without generating an increase in the GHG emissions for these years.

Although production output has increased in these industries, the GHG emissions have fallen and hence the GHG intensity of the activities has been reduced. The industry's final energy consumption composition in Figure 10 shows the two underlying drivers for the reduction in GHG emissions: energy efficiency and a change in the fuel mix. Energy efficiency has increased, because more is produced with less energy; from 1990 to 2014 the total final energy consumption by industry has fallen by a quarter. In addition, the fuel mix has changed, although not as prominently as for electricity and heat generation. Still, the consumption of solid fuels and total petroleum products has halved over the years, whereas the use of renewable energy has increased by half. This implies that less greenhouse gases are emitted per unit of energy used.

Households, commerce, institutions and others

Figure 11: Residential final energy consumption, EU-28, 1990-2014 (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Source: Eurostat (nrg_110a)

GHG emissions from fuel combustion by households, commerce, institutions and others contributed with a fall of almost 250 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent to the reduction of GHG emissions, mainly due to a change in the fuel mix used.

The relative drop in GHG emissions of over a quarter over 1990 to 2014 (Figure 5) follows from a relatively stable downward trend (Figure 6). Fuel combustion by private households causes more than 60 % of this source sector's emissions, and decreased by the same percentage as the source sector total. Figure 11 shows the related changes in the energy consumption of households between 1990 and 2014, which decreased by only 4 % over the same period of time. In this case, the fuel mix change has contributed more to the reduction of GHG emissions. The use of solid fuels fell by almost three quarters and the use of petroleum products almost halved. Households now use substantially more renewables, which increased by three quarters, and more natural gas and electrical energy.

Additional drivers for the decrease in GHG emissions of households are energy efficiency improvements in space heating and the increase in energy efficiency of large electrical appliances.[3]

Transport-related emissions, including emissions from international aviation

Figure 12: Greenhouse gas emissions of transport, EU-28, 1990-2014 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

The transport sector, including international aviation, is the only fuel combustion sector which shows an increase in GHG emissions when comparing 2014 to 1990, as shown in Figure 5. Between 1990 and 2014, total GHG emissions increased by 20 %, or over 170 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent. The volume of transport, measured as the amount transported times the distance, increased until the economic recession. However, fuel efficiency has not improved substantially enough to offset the increase in transport volume.

Figure 12 presents the development over time of GHG emissions by the transport sector in more detail. To provide a complete picture, this figure also includes international navigation, which constitutes over 10 % of the total GHG emissions of transport as reported here. Although GHG emissions are higher in 2014 compared to 1990, there has been a decreasing trend from 2007 onwards up to 2013. At its maximum in 2007, GHG emissions from transport were more than a third higher than in 1990. Road transport is the largest contributor with almost three quarters of the transport-related GHG emissions. It is also the category that follows the same pattern as the total transport GHG emissions; increasing up to 2007, decreasing after 2007. International aviation has seen the largest growth over the years by doubling its GHG emissions.

Figure 13: Transport performance, EU-28, 1995-2014 (index 1995 = 100, based on tonne-kilometres and passenger-kilometres)
Source: DG MOVE Statistical Pocketbook 2016

The development in GHG emissions correlates closely with overall transport volume performance, measured in tonne-kilometres and passenger-kilometres, see Figure 13. Passenger transport has increased during most of the years and only shows small setbacks, whereas freight transport performance clearly shows the impact of the economic recession. With less economic activity, less transport of goods is required. Transport performance statistics confirm that road transport is the most important mode of transport; over 80 % of passenger transport performance and almost 50 % of freight transport performance is due to road transport when considering all types of transport modes (inland, air and maritime transport).

The energy consumption in transport has increased by a quarter from 1990 to 2014, exactly in line with the increase in transport performance. Overall, transport has hardly improved its fuel efficiency. Almost all fuel used in transport consists of petroleum products and there has only been a marginal shift towards renewables, so there has not been a significant favorable shift in the fuel mix as seen for the other sectors.[4]

To conclude, energy mix changes seem to be the driving force behind the reduction in most fuel combustion sectors. In particular the manufacturing and construction industries have managed to substantially increase its energy efficiency. The following sections describe the GHG emissions by source sectors other than fuel use.

Industrial processes and product use

The source sector 'industrial processes and product use' is responsible for around 8 % of the total GHG emissions including international aviation. Of the three non-energy sectors, it has the largest absolute reduction in GHG emissions in 2014 compared to 1990, equal to 140 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent. The sector represents a wide range of production processes and economic activities across different industries.

Table 1: Greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes and product use - selected sectors (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

To understand what drives the reduction in GHG emissions, it is useful to have a more detailed look at the sub-sectors with the largest shares. Table 1 shows a selected subset of the industrial processes and product use sector. All production processes that traditionally had a large share in the total, namely mineral (cement), chemical and metal manufacturing, have managed to reduce their GHG emissions sizeably. The GHG emissions from nitric and adipic acid production are even reduced to a small fraction of what they used to be.

A completely opposite trend is seen for the sub-sector 'product uses as substitutes for ozone depleting substances' which mainly relates to the emissions of fluorinated gases (F-gases). Within this sub-sector, refrigeration and air conditioning has by far the largest absolute increase with around 100 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent. The demand for refrigeration and air conditioning will most likely increase in the future, so the GHG intensity of this sector will need to be reduced.

Agricultural emissions

Figure 14: Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, EU-28, 1990 and 2014 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Out of the total GHG emissions in 2014, 10 % was emitted by the agricultural sector. Over the time span 1990 to 2014, the sector reduced its emissions by 113 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, which corresponds to around -20 % compared to 1990. Figure 14 shows the GHG emissions in 1990 and 2014 for different agricultural activities.

Figure 15: Livestock, EU-28, 2001-2014 (million head)
Source: Eurostat (apro_mt_lspig) (apro_mt_lscatl)

Emissions from enteric fermentation (methane), the fermentation of feed during the digestive processes of animals, were reduced by close to 60 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent or almost a quarter of the 1990 GHG emissions. Over 80 % of the GHG emissions due to enteric fermentation are from the digestive system of cattle. These emissions fell by 23 % over 25 years, but the decrease in GHG emissions primarily took place during the first decade. The emission reduction for the years 2000 to 2014 is equal to only 6 %, which is in line with the small drop, also by 6 %, in head count of bovine animals[5], which includes cattle, buffaloes and oxen (Figure 15). Data on bovine animals for the EU-28 is not available for years before 2001, because data for a couple of small countries is missing, but based on what is available, the livestock data also shows a drop of around a quarter for the period 1990-2014.

Not all digestive systems produce as much methane as the digestive system of cattle. For example, the head count of swine in the EU-28 is about 170 % of the head count of bovine animals, as shown in Figure 15. Still, the enteric fermentation of swine is only 3 %, of total GHG emissions of enteric fermentation.

Figure 16: Manure production, quantity of nitrogen, EU-28, 2004-2013 (index 2004 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (aei_pr_gnb)

Emissions from manure management fell by 20 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent or 23 %. GHG emissions from manure management are either estimated based on livestock statistics or manure management system usage data. They include methane emissions (66 % on average) and nitrous oxide emissions (34 % on average).[6]

Figure 16 shows the quantity of nitrogen from manure production over the ten years up to 2013. The quantity of nitrogen in manure production from swine has fallen more than the quantity of nitrogen in manure production from bovine animals over these ten years. More detailed data from the GHG inventories shows that the reduction in GHG emissions from manure management are in line with the changes in the quantity of nitrogen in manure production: GHG emissions from swine manure management fell by twice as much as GHG emissions from cattle manure management over these years. Cattle manure management and swine manure management contribute respectively by 45 % and 34 % to the total GHG emissions from manure management.

Emissions from waste

Figure 17: Greenhouse gas emissions of waste management, EU-28, 1990-2014 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Emissions from waste have fallen mainly due to a reduction in GHG emissions from solid waste disposal following a reduction in the amount of landfilling; the deposit of waste into or onto land. The organic fraction of waste landfilled creates methane emissions.

In 2014, the share of waste management in total GHG emissions was around 3 % (see Figure 4). GHG emissions from waste management have been reduced by nearly 100 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Although in absolute terms this sector has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, it managed to reduce its emissions by 40 % over the 25 years for which we have GHG inventories.

Figure 17 shows that waste management emissions remained very stable for almost the first ten years. However, since 2000 GHG emissions started to fall, and have continued to do so in a very stable way. In both absolute and relative terms, the decrease was largest for solid waste disposal with 87 million tonnes or 45 %. Waste water treatment reduced its GHG emissions by 36 %, but due to the smaller share in the total, this only amounts to 15 million tonnes.

Figure 18: Municipal waste treatment, EU-27, 2000-2014 (million tonnes)
Source: Eurostat (env_wasmun)

Figure 18 shows statistics from municipal waste treatment that give more background on the apparently steady fall of GHG emissions from waste management. Note that this data is for the EU-27 in order to be able to show a longer time series.

The practice of disposing of waste by landfilling was reduced by half over 15 years. This way of treating solid waste was reduced due to two main reasons. First, the recycling and composting of solid waste has increased by two-thirds. Given that our economy is growing and needs materials to produce goods and service, given that material resources are not unlimited and given that the use of primary materials needs to be reduced, recycling has become more and more important. Second, total incineration, with energy recovery has increased. This seems counterfactual to the fact that GHG emissions from incineration have reduced. However, GHG emissions from incineration with energy recovery are not recorded in the waste sector of the GHG inventories, but in the energy sector. In addition, carbon dioxide emissions from burning biomass are only included as a memo item in the GHG inventories and are not included in the total value of GHG emissions reported. Figure 7 shows that waste used as a fuel to produce electricity and heat has increased fourfold over 25 years. Overall, renewable and non-renewable waste has been used to increase energy for gross inland consumption by 17 million tonnes of oil equivalent from 1990 to 2014, a three-fold increase.

The strong reduction in landfilling as a treatment of waste is a combined result of the Waste Framework Directive (Directive 2008/98/EC) and the Landfill Directive (Council Directive 1999/31/EC). The Waste Framework Directive sets out a waste hierarchy that serves as the priority order in waste prevention and management, legislation and policy. Waste disposal is last on the list. The objective of the Landfill Directive is to prevent or reduce as far as possible the negative effects on the environment and risks to human health from the landfilling of waste. According to a report by the EEA, the Landfill Directive has been effective in reducing landfilling and increasing the use of alternative waste management options. In 2015 several legislative proposals have been adopted to review waste policy as part of the Circular Economy Package. These proposals aim to further increase re-use and recycling and limit disposal such as landfilling.

Land use, land use change and forestry is an overall sink of emissions

In addition to the sources of GHG emissions represented in Figure 4 and Figure 5, GHG inventories also include a sector that is, overall, a sink of GHG emissions. This means that the total GHG emissions recorded for this sector are negative, because these GHG emissions are removed from the atmosphere. This sector is called land use, land use change and forestry, which is often abbreviated to LULUCF. Of these, forestry is the reason LULUCF emissions are negative.

Figure 19: Greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF, EU-28, 1990-2014 (billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
Source: EEA, republished by Eurostat (env_air_gge)

Depending on the context and purpose, emissions from LULUCF are either included in, or excluded from, reported total GHG emissions. Currently, LULUCF is still excluded from the EU climate and energy package. However, the European Commission is working towards integrating GHG emissions from LULUCF into the 2030 climate and energy framework. A legislative proposal for this integration was presented in July 2016 and has subsequently been submitted to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions for further consideration under the ordinary legislative procedure. Reporting obligations related to LULUCF also differ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol; for industrialised countries, LULUCF is covered by the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Kyoto Protocol, EU Member States have committed to compensate GHG emissions from land use by an equivalent absorption of CO2 emissions through additional action in the sector up until 2020.

Figure 20: Forest area, EU-28, 1990-2015 with five year intervals (million hectares)
Source: Eurostat (for_area)

Figure 19 shows, with a purple line, the total GHG emissions when the negative emissions from LULUCF are included in the total. On average this results in a decrease of total GHG emissions by 6 %, ranging from 4.4 % in 1990 to 7.0 % in 2014. Of the different land use types, the only actual sink of GHG emissions in the EU GHG inventory is forest land. Hence, forests play an important role in the mitigation (in other words reduction) of GHG emissions. For all other land use types, such as cropland, grassland, wetlands and settlements, positive GHG emissions are recorded. Currently, the only other sink category is harvested wood products. However, grassland and wetlands left undisturbed can also become a sink.

The 2013 EU forest strategy of the European Commission highlights that forests are not only important for economic and social purposes, but also for the environment, for example in the fight against climate change. It calls on Member States to demonstrate how they intend to increase their forests' mitigation potential and how to enhance their forests' adaptive capacities and resilience.

Forestry statistics show indeed that the total forest area within the EU-28 has increased from 1990 to 2015, see Figure 20. Other wooded land has slightly decreased over the years, but overall the trend is still positive. The role of forestry and harvested wood products in the LULUCF sector are discussed in more detail in the Statistics Explained article Forestry and climate change.

CO2 emission intensities of economic activities

Figure 21: Greenhouse gas emissions by economic activity according to the NACE classification, EU-28, 2014
Source: Eurostat (env_ac_ainah_r2)

The CO2 emission intensity of the total economy, the amount of CO2 emission per unit of output in the EU-28, has decreased by 17 %, comparing 2014 to 2008.

GHG inventories are the primary reporting format for GHG emissions. The scope of each of the source sectors in the GHG inventories is defined in a way that best fits the underlying technical processes that result in GHG emissions. However, GHG emissions by GHG inventory source sectors cannot be matched one-to-one with economic activities (industries) as recorded in national accounts.

Within the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), air emissions are recorded in accounts that apply the same accounting concepts, structures, rules and principles as the System of National Accounts.[7] These air emissions accounts are consistent with national accounts, including the break-down by economic activity according to the NACE Rev.2 classification. Air emissions accounts also enable the analysis of changes in economic structure and the effect on GHG emissions.

The shares of GHG emissions by economic activity are presented in Figure 21. In the air emissions accounts, emissions are assigned to the economic activities for which the GHG are emitted. For example, emissions reported as transportation in the GHG inventories are partly assigned to households and other economic activities that operate their own transport fleet. The Statistics Explained article 'Greenhouse gas emissions by industries and households' showcases the air emissions accounts in more detail.

By combining information from air emissions accounts and national accounts, GHG emission intensities of economy activities can be calculated. Emission intensities express how much GHG emissions are produced per unit of output or value added of the economic activity.

Table 2: CO2 intensity by economic activity, EU-28, 2008 and 2014 (grams per euro, chain linked volumes 2010 and index 2008 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (env_ac_aeint_r2)

Table 2 shows the grams of CO2 emitted for each euro of value added generated by the different economic activities in more detail. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply shows by far the largest amount of CO2 emitted per euro of value added. Ranking second in absolute terms is transportation and storage. Other economic activities with high CO2 intensities are the primary and secondary sectors; agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; and manufacturing. Service sectors emit much less CO2 per unit of value added. In general, economic structural changes towards a bigger service sector implies less CO2 emissions.

Table 2 also shows the development of these CO2 intensities over time. For two economic activities the CO2 intensity has increased when comparing 2014 with 2008. These sectors are construction with an increase of 10.7 % and mining and quarrying with an increase of 2.3 %. Construction has recorded higher emission intensities for all years after 2008, but for the last two years the emission intensity reduced, although only slightly. The increase in emission intensities is likely an effect of the economic recession with value added falling more than the CO2 emissions. Construction was particularly hit by the economic downturn. Most economic activities managed to have lower CO2 emission intensities by 2014 compared to 2008.

Carbon footprint of consumption and investment by the EU-28

The carbon footprint is a measure of how much CO2 was emitted along the full production chain of a product that ends up in the EU-28 as final consumption or investment, irrespective of the industry or country where the CO2 emission occurred. These emissions are sometimes referred to as emissions 'embodied' in EU-28 consumption, although they are not literally included in the final products, and these products are not only consumed, but may also be investment goods.

Carbon footprints are estimated using environmental-economic modelling, which results in higher margins of error due to various modelling assumptions. For example, the estimate for emissions embodied in imports is based on the ‘domestic-technology-assumption’; in other words it is assumed that the imported products are produced with production technologies similar to those employed within the EU. Hence, carbon footprints are less reliable than GHG inventories and air emissions accounts.

Still, carbon footprints offer a valuable additional perspective to GHG inventories and air emissions accounts. The latter record emissions on the production side, at the origin of the emissions. In contrast, carbon footprints are estimated from the perspective of the final product and where it ends up, and are therefore also referred to as consumption-based accounts. Carbon footprints are estimated by combining information from air emissions accounts with economic accounts in so-called input-output tables.

Table 3: Carbon footprint by product, EU-28, 2012 (million tonnes and percentage of total)
Source: Eurostat (env_ac_io10)

Table 3 presents the products with the largest share in the total EU-28 carbon footprint. The total EU-28 carbon footprint is 3.8 billion tonnes. Note that this cannot be compared directly to the GHG emissions from inventories that are reported in this article, because the GHG inventory values include all greenhouse gases, whereas the carbon footprint values only include CO2 emissions.

Of the total CO2 emissions due to EU-28 demand for products, almost 13 % of the emissions are caused by the final demand for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning. The production of these products is very energy-intensive so it is not a surprise that it contributes most to the footprint. The same applies to 'constructions and construction works'. Construction itself requires energy, but cement and steel, both used in construction, also have very GHG-intensive production processes (see Table 1). More surprising is the high rank of the final demand of food, beverages and tobacco products, which contribute over 5 % to the total footprint.

Figure 22: Carbon footprint, production versus consumption perspective EU-28, 2012 (million tonnes)
Source: Eurostat (env_ac_io10)

Finally, Figure 22 shows on the right-hand side the breakdown of the carbon footprint into direct emissions by households, emissions in the EU-28 induced by EU-28 final demand, and imported emissions induced by EU-28 final demand. By importing various goods and services from the rest of the world, the EU can be deemed to have ‘avoided’ 505 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions that would otherwise have arisen on its own territory.

On the left-hand side the production perspective is shown, which includes EU-28 emissions embodied in exported products. Due to the difference in the emissions embodied in trade, the EU-28 emits more carbon dioxide than is needed to produce the final demand of the EU-28 itself, the difference being 107 million tonnes.

Not shown in the figure is the estimate of a total of 174 million tonnes of imported emissions that are embodied in exports, as these are neither emitted in the EU-28, nor induced by EU-28 demand, but merely pass through.

More information on carbon footprints can be found in the Statistics Explained article 'Carbon dioxide emissions from final use of products'.

Data sources, availability and data definitions

Data sources

GHG emission data from the GHG inventories is from Eurostat's dataset Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge). This dataset is a republication of the GHG inventories as published by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The EEA GHG inventory data is accessible through the EEA greenhouse gas data viewer.

The Directorate-General for Climate Action of the European Commission has overall responsibility for the inventory of the EU and the reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The EEA is responsible for the preparation of the EU's GHG inventory as well as for the implementation of the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedures on the GHG inventories reported by the 28 Member States and Iceland. The EEA is supported in its work by the European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM). Each Member State compiles its national inventory and submits it to both the UNFCCC and to the EEA. Eurostat collects national energy statistics reported under the EU Energy Statistics Regulation and is responsible for supplying the energy data for the IPCC reference approach for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This is a key verification procedure of the energy data reported in the EU GHG inventory. The Joint Research Centre is responsible for the QA/QC of the LULUCF and agriculture sectors in the EU’s GHG inventory.

The annual reporting rules on GHG emissions for the EU and its Member States are set in the EU monitoring mechanism legislation: Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting, Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 666/2013 establishing the inventory system, and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 749/2014 defining the details of the submission process. The GHG inventories are compiled in line with the 2006 guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the monitoring mechanism is based on internationally agreed obligations under the UNFCCC.

Data on transport performance is from the Statistical pocketbook 2016 of the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, which includes data from Eurostat, from other sources and own estimates.

All other statistics are from Eurostat and accessible through Eurostat's online database. Each dataset can be identified by Eurostat's online data code reported as the source below the figure or table.

Direct hyperlinks to each Eurostat dataset, for the selection of variables and lay-out of dimensions used for this article are included in the attached Excel file (see below).

Definition and coverage

Figure 23: Greenhouse gas emissions by gas type, EU-28, 2014
Source: EEA GHG data viewer

Greenhouse gas emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and several fluorinated gases; sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Carbon dioxide represents more than four-fifths or 80 % of total GHG emissions in 2014, as shown in Figure 23. Both the share of carbon dioxide and the share of fluorinated gases have increased by a few percentage points from 1990 to 2014, while the shares of methane and nitrous oxide have fallen a few percentage points.

To be able to compare and add the GHG emissions together, each GHG is expressed in CO2- equivalent based on its global warming potential (GWP) relative to carbon dioxide. For example, methane absorbs 25 times more thermal infrared radiation than carbon dioxide and is therefore 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. To calculate methane in CO2-equivalent, the amount of methane is multiplied by its GWP value of 25. Note that these GWPs are occasionally updated when new information on the energy absorption or life time of the gases becomes available from scientific research. At this moment, the GWP values used to compile GHG inventories in Europe are taken from the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

All GHG totals in this article include indirect CO2 emissions. All GHG totals exclude emissions and removals due to land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), except for Figure 19. Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of biomass are recorded as memorandum item in GHG inventories and are also not included in the various totals. In contrast, all GHG totals, and the figures on transport, include international aviation, although it is officially reported as memo item in the GHG inventories. All other memo items (transport and storage of CO2, international navigation, and multilateral operations) are excluded.

Table 4: Main differences between GHG inventories and air emissions accounts
Source: Eurostat's dedicated section on air emissions inventories

Although GHG inventories and air emissions accounts both report GHG emissions, there are differences in definition and scope that result in differences in the reported values both at the total level and for individual sectors. Table 4 lists the main differences between GHG inventories and air emissions accounts. Data from the latter have been used to compile GHG emissions by economic activity (Figure 21), CO2 intensities (Table 2) and carbon footprints (Table 3).

Significant differences between the totals for GHG inventories and air emissions accounts may occur in certain countries where very large resident businesses engage in international water and air transport services. For instance, in Denmark, carbon dioxide emissions reported in the accounts are 95 % higher than those reported in inventories. This difference is due to a very large Danish shipping business, which operates vessels worldwide, and hence bunkers most of its fuel and emits most of its emissions outside Denmark. These emissions abroad are not accounted for in the Danish GHG inventory, but they are included in the air emissions accounts. For the EU as a whole, the differences between totals from the GHG inventories and the air emissions accounts are much less pronounced.

For the agricultural data on livestock and manure production: 'swine' excludes wild swine, and 'bovine animals' includes cattle, buffaloes and oxen.

More detail on the definition and scope of the statistics reported on in this article can be found in the metadata accompanying the respective datasets.

Context

European context

Climate change due to GHG emissions as a result of human activities is a major threat to society. The European Commission addresses the causes and consequences of climate change through European regulations and policies and by being an ambitious partner in the international activities in this field. For monitoring the progress in reducing GHG emissions, as well as for monitoring the drivers, the impact and the adaptation to climate change, high quality data is essential.

Officially, the EU’s progress on GHG emission reduction is evaluated against targets set in its political commitments. The EU succeeded in reducing its GHG emissions beyond the amounts agreed on in the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol. The target set for 2020 in the Europe 2020 Strategy, a 20 % reduction of GHG emissions compared to 1990, has also already been surpassed. Now, the EU is working towards cutting at least 40 % of its emissions in 2030 compared to 1990, as target set in the 2030 climate & energy framework.

The two main instruments to achieve the EU GHG targets are the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD). The EU ETS is a market for trading carbon that works on the basis of a cap set on the amount of GHG emissions that can be emitted by installations covered by the system. Emission allowances are auctioned to allocate them to the installations. If a company produces less GHG emissions than it has allowances for, it can sell these to a company that needs more. The market forces of supply, demand, and the resulting prices ensure that the lowest-cost solutions for reducing GHG emissions are implemented. The ESD covers most sectors not included in the EU ETS and establishes binding annual GHG emission targets for the EU Member States for these sectors.

For the commitment period from 2021-2030, a new legislative proposal has been presented setting binding annual GHG emission targets for 2021-2030 for ESD sectors, in other words sectors not regulated under the EU ETS. A second legislative proposal has been adopted by the European Commission to include land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) into the EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The proposal includes binding commitments for LULUCF and specifies the accounting rules to determine compliance. Also, the burning of biomass will count towards the 2030 commitments of each Member State. To address the GHG emissions from transport, the Commission has put together a strategy on low-emission mobility to increase the use of low and zero-emission vehicles and alternative low-emission fuels.

Global context

The fight against climate change at global level is governed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[8] The Convention is an international environmental treaty that entered into force in 1994 and has been ratified by 197 countries. The objective of the UNFCCC as expressed in the Convention text is "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".

The Kyoto Protocol is the first international agreement linked to the UNFCCC to set binding emission reduction targets for industrialised countries, among them the EU as a region. It includes two commitment periods: from 2008 to 2012, and from 2013 to 2020. The second commitment period was agreed upon in the Doha Amendment to the Protocol, which has not yet entered into force.

The latest key step in the process is the entry into force of the Paris Agreement on 4 November 2016. The Paris Agreement is the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate agreement. It was adopted during the 21st Conference of the Parties in December 2015 in Paris. The objective of the Paris Agreement is to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, by trying to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This objective should be met by working towards achieving the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) put forward by the Parties to the Agreement.[9]

In addition, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) agreed upon in 2015 include a climate action goal. The targets related to this goal do not address GHG emissions directly, but are important to combat climate change and its impacts through capacity building, promoting climate change measures, and strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to withstand the impacts of climate change.

See also

Selection of related Statistics Explained articles

Source data for figures and tables (MS Excel)

Further Eurostat information

Publications

Database

External links

European Commission - Directorate-General for Climate Action

European Commission - other

European Environment Agency

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Other

Notes

  1. For more details and background see the Commission's progress report on climate action: Communication COM(2016) 707 and Annex SWD(2016) 349, and the EEA's report on emissions trends and projections.
  2. For this reason, carbon dioxide emissions from burning biomass are only included as a memo item in the GHG inventories and they are not included in the total GHG emissions reported.
  3. For more detailed information see EEA's article 'Progress on energy efficiency in Europe'.
  4. For an in-depth analysis of developments in the environmental performance of transport in the EU see EEA's report 'Transitions towards a more sustainable mobility system'.
  5. GHG emissions from enteric fermentation of cattle and cattle manure management excludes buffaloes, which are reported under 'other livestock'.
  6. GHG emissions by type of emission are not republished in Eurostat's database, but are available from the original data source EEA's GHG data viewer.
  7. See also the Statistics Explained article 'Environmental accounts - establishing the links between the environment and the economy'.
  8. For an overview of the United Nations climate change regime see http://bigpicture.unfccc.int
  9. More information on the Paris Agreement from the EU's perspective see: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en .