Labour market flow statistics in the EU
Data extracted in May 2019.
Planned article update: August 2019.
Out of all unemployed people in the EU in Q3/2018, 57.0 % remained unemployed, 20.9 % found a job and 22.1 % moved to inactivity in the fourth quarter of 2018.
This article gives an overview of developments in Labour Market Flow statistics in the majority of European Union (EU) Member States. Labour market flows show the movements of individuals between employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. They help to understand and interpret changes in the levels of labour market indicators based on the EU-Labour Force Survey (LFS). Eurostat publishes quarter-on-quarter flows for all Member States with the exception of Germany. Quarterly data is available starting with the transition between the first and the second quarter of 2010.
Out of all those persons in the European Union (EU ) who were unemployed in the third quarter of 2018, 57.0 % (8.4 million persons) remained unemployed in the fourth quarter of 2018, while 20.9 % (3.1 million) moved into employment and 22.1 % (3.3 million) towards economic inactivity. Of all those initially in employment, 96.0 % (181.8 million persons) remained in employment, while 1.4 % (2.7 million) of those employed in the third quarter of 2018 were recorded as unemployed in the fourth quarter 2018, and 2.6 % (4.9 million) transitioned into economic inactivity. Figure 1 gives an overview of all possible transitions and shows the aggregate transitions between the third quarter 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2018 for 27 EU Member States (data not available for Germany) between the different labour market statuses. Data is shown in absolute numbers to allow a comparison of the actual size of the different flows. The levels indicated for employment, unemployment and inactivity refer to those remaining in each status between the two quarters. The grey arrows indicate the net direction of flows between two statuses. The matrix in Table 1 shows the same flows in % of the initial status, to give an impression of the share of individuals leaving each labour market status.
Labour market flows: transitions
Labour market flows in %: understanding transition probabilities
Flows can be expressed in levels, as a % of the initial status, or as % of the final status. In this article and in the flows database, Eurostat expresses flows in levels and as a % of initial status. This means that flows in % refer always to outflows from the initial status towards the final status. Mathematically speaking, each flow is calculated as the relevant outflow divided by the sum of all outflows from the same status. These figures can also be referred to as transition probabilities: given that an individual is in a certain labour market status in the initial period, the outflows expressed in % refer to the probability, all else equal, that the individual will be in a certain labour market status in the final period.
Flow statistics augment the analysis of the net changes in stocks of unemployment, employment and inactivity. To illustrate this point, Figure 2 shows the evolution of net changes in unemployment each quarter since the fourth quarter of 2010 and how this change is composed. The yellow bars illustrate the net flow between employment and unemployment, while the blue bars illustrate the net flows between inactivity and unemployment. Negative values indicate net flows out of unemployment, which means unemployment decreases. On the other hand, positive values show net flows into unemployment, corresponding to increasing unemployment. Consequently, a yellow bar with a negative value indicates a net flow from unemployment into employment while a positive value indicates a net flow from employment into unemployment. The same holds for the interpretation of the flow from inactivity indicated by the blue bars. The red line traces the net change in unemployment levels resulting from the combined net flows. For net flows between two quarters, if both the blue and yellow bars are positive, then the corresponding red dot represents the sum of both bars. If one bar is positive (inflow into unemployment) and the other is negative (outflow from unemployment), then the red line indicates the net effect of these two flows.
From the four graphs in Figure 3, we can see that the flows are highly seasonal, which means that the size and direction of a flow in and out of unemployment depends not only on general economic conditions, but also on seasonal factors that are repeated in a similar fashion each year. As seasonally adjusted flows data is not yet available, instead data are presented separately for each set of corresponding quarters in Figure 3, such that the development over time becomes more visible. In each of the four graphs, the brown line peaks in the years 2011/2012, which means that inflows into unemployment were largest (or outflows from unemployment were smallest) during that period. From 2012, the brown line significantly decreases, indicating a decreasing inflow into unemployment or an increasing outflow from unemployment.
Methodology The data in this article can be subject to revisions due to improvements in the methods used. The quality of this data is not yet fully explored, but the statistics are judged sufficiently reliable for policy analysis and other purposes. The methodology applied aims at producing comparable figures across countries and may differ from national approaches. Data are derived from the EU-LFS by exploiting the quarterly overlap of a share of the sample; this overlapping data is weighted to be compatible with stock data derived from the EU-LFS for the initial quarter as well as the final quarter, with the exception of inactivity in the initial quarter.
Eurostat calculates initial quarter-on-quarter flow estimates as 3x3 ILO labour status transition matrices, for the age group 15-74, by sex and for individual countries.
The following general criteria are applied for quarter-on-quarter flow calculations:
- For all quarters from the first quarter of 2010 onwards, the longitudinal flow samples are defined as the overlap of their sample with the sample of the previous quarter for the age group 15-74.
- All computations are restricted to persons aged 15-74; as the restriction is separately applied to both quarterly datasets concerned, i.e. to persons in the target age group in both quarters, it leads to a slight reduction of the real quarterly overlaps as people turn 15 or 75 from one quarter to another – those cases are excluded.
Labour status transitions - computational details
The current calculation of ILO labour status transitions already anticipates possible future consistency requirements for flow statistics. For each quarter-on-quarter transition, i.e. from an initial to a final quarter, it hence starts with separate calculations by sex and age group, using 10-year age groups 15-24, 25-34…65-74. For each of these subgroups, the International Labour organisation (ILO) labour status distribution in the longitudinal flow sample is calculated, using final quarter weights. As those figures are based on a subset of the final quarter sample only, the resulting grossed-up weights obviously do not provide correct estimates for the underlying population subgroups. They have hence to be calibrated further to known marginal totals for the subgroups in question. In order to do this, the final quarter distribution of the 3 labour statuses in the respective subgroups is taken, and correction factors calculated.
The flow sample weights are then adapted to match the distribution in the final quarter, namely for each age group x sex x labour status in the final quarter combination. The steps described in the following could be applied to each individual matrix produced that way. However, in order to avoid empty or poorly populated cells as far as possible and to get more robust results, calculation of the headline indicators for the age group 15-74 starts with a further aggregation of the previous results about age, i.e. all intermediate transition matrix results calculated so far for an individual country are combined into one single matrix, by sex. As they are just added up, also these combined matrices match the relevant ILO labour status distribution in the final quarter, by sex.
As for the final quarter, marginal ILO labour status distributions for the initial quarter are available as well. The next step tries to achieve consistency of the transition matrix with both marginal distributions. The procedure applied requires a common population 15-74 in both quarters – for that, the probably least critical value (inactive population initial quarter) is corrected in a way that the total population in both quarters matches that of the final quarter. Afterwards an iterative raking procedure is applied. It starts with the matrix consistent with the final quarter distribution and tries to find matrix values which are as close as possible to the start matrix while ensuring also consistency to the (partly corrected) initial quarter distribution. The procedure implies an alternating adjustment of the matrix rows and columns. The iterative raking stops once the deviation of the row and column sums from the marginal distributions is less than a pre-specified threshold. The results of the iterative raking are the flow estimates to be used for publication by Eurostat. They are published separately for males and females.
Breakdowns of labour market flow statistics
While transitions between the ILO labour statuses are interesting and important indicators in their own right, there is nevertheless demand from policy makers, researchers and other stakeholders for breakdowns of these flows. Clearly, it is not only important to know how many unemployed persons manage to find a job and move towards employment, but also which of the unemployed manage this transition. A large number of other breakdowns for the transition between unemployment and employment are of interest, and the same holds for other transitions, such as transitions between inactivity and employment, and transitions between contracts for those who are employed and stay employed.
The production of these statistics is, however, not straightforward, as the matched sample is relatively small for most countries; therefore, quarterly data is pooled and annual averages are used. As this still does not result in a sufficiently large sample in many cases, a simple regression based method to estimate transition probabilities is applied to the flow of interest, e.g. unemployment to employment. The set of explanatory variables is chosen not depending on an underlying economic model, but instead is driven by the demand for specific breakdowns mentioned above, as well as the availability of data in the LFS, i.e. there is no use made of external sources. The relevant advantage of the regression approach is that it allows us to include a function of age into the regression, exploiting the fact that we have a continuous variable at our disposal. This makes it possible to "borrow strength" from the distribution of age over the dependent variable. From the estimated coefficients of the regression, predicted probabilities are derived. Currently, nine tables of breakdowns based on this methodology are published under Eurostat's "experimental statistics" label. Figure 4 shows an example of the breakdown by age group for job-to-job transitions, one often requested flow based indicator. The figure shows the probability of an individual employed in both the initial and the target quarter, having changed jobs in between (defined as starting a new work contract between the two interviews). The figure gives a good impression of the differences between countries with regard to the total predicted probability. The probability of an employed individual changing jobs between two quarters in 2015 ranged from almost 6% in Sweden to below 1% in Romania and Greece. However, in all countries the transition probability for employed individuals aged 15-24 was much higher than that of older workers, with the lowest rate found for those aged 55-74. This confirmation of a specific pattern for a breakdown for all countries, while overall transition probabilities are so different, shows the need for these as well as further breakdowns.
Employment and unemployment statistics can be used for a number of different analyses, including macroeconomic (looking at labour as a production factor), productivity or competitiveness studies. They can also be used to study a range of social and behavioural aspects related to an individual’s labour market situation, such as the social integration of minorities, employment as a source of household income and unemployment as a risk for poverty or social exclusion.
Employment and unemployment are both structural as well as short-term indicators. As structural indicators, they may shed light on the structure of labour markets and economic systems, as measured through the balance of labour supply and demand. As short-term indicators, they follow the business cycle; however, it has limits in this respect, as employment and unemployment are often referred to as a lagging indicator.
Flow statistics, as presented in this article, aim to bridge the gap in understanding the dynamics between these two important indicators. They are valuable in qualifying changes in unemployment and employment, and help to make informed policy decisions. Understanding for example why the level of unemployed does not drop after an economic recovery will be easier when considering the in-and outflows in and out of unemployment. In a case where unemployment stagnates because the substantial outflows from unemployment to employment are counterbalanced by inflows from inactivity to unemployment, the development can be judged as a recovery on the labour market despite the stagnating unemployment levels: we can see that large numbers of inactive individuals have decided to take up the search for employment, thus being counted as unemployed. The decision to search for work might indicate that these individuals earlier regarded their chances on the labour market as so low, that they did not even search for work (discouraged workers). The large outflows from unemployment to employment indicate that the demand for labour has indeed increased.
The situation is different if unemployment is stagnating because there are only minimal outflows of unemployment. In that case, flow statistics indicate that the economic recovery has not (yet) reached the labour market.
- Flow statistics (ESMS metadata file — lfsi_long__esms)