by Ann Mettler, Chair, ESPAS
Ann Mettler,
Chair, ESPAS
The next decade will be defining for the future of Europe and Europe’s role in the world. Seismic global power shifts; pressure on liberal democracies; challenges to global governance; the transformation of economic models and the very fabric of societies; new uses and misuses of technology; contrasting demographic patterns; and humanity’s growing ecological footprint – the world is well on its way towards a new geopolitical, geo-economic and geotechnological order. What role will Europe play in this fast-changing world? How can the European Union ensure that it does not end up a middle power, caught between the United States and China? What will it take for Europe to hold its destiny in its own hands in 2030?
The future is now, and tomorrow’s challenges (and opportunities) are determined by today’s choices. But the future is not what it used to be. The world is far more complex, contested and competitive than before – and is changing at unprecedented pace. The interconnected and interdependent nature of national, European and global affairs has put a new premium on agile policy- and decision-making, resilience, strategic foresight, and anticipatory governance – all of which are more important now than ever before. Despite being more necessary and urgent, developing a ‘culture of preparedness’ and proactively shaping the future has also become more difficult and testing.
Against this backdrop, the ESPAS Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe report is a contribution to support policy- and decision-makers as they navigate the world into 2030. We may not be able to provide a linear, predetermined chart – from port of departure to port of arrival. But what we can do is extrapolate insights from current global trends; explore some of the key uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future; and better anticipate some of the choices and decisions that might confront us in the coming decade.
Without purporting to be all-encompassing, this report seeks to pull together available evidence for what one may well call a European reality-check. Europe is a key global player in many areas, but the world is no longer Eurocentric – nor will it be so in the future. Europeans will be fewer, older, and relatively poorer while much of the rest of the world is rising. Even if European Union Member States pool more resources together, Europe will remain outspent on security and defence. And as global power is being redefined by rapid technological progress, Europeans lag behind China and the United States on emerging technologies and innovations – from Artificial Intelligence to quantum computing. These are facts and they matter.
And, if there is any doubt about how much the world will change over the next 10 years, here are just some of the facts that point to profound change on the horizon:
With these profound changes underway, it may seem easy to dismiss Europe, as too small and too insignificant to really make a difference, but that would be a grave mistake. Not only does Europe need Europe, but the world needs Europe as well – as an inspiration for a better future; a sound balance between economic, social and environmental objectives; a beacon of democracy, diversity and freedom; and a true champion of multilateral solutions and collaborative approaches in a world increasingly dominated by nationalism and zero-sum politics. Europe is still a normative superpower, the place that sets the global gold standard when it comes to humancentric technology and digital rights, to regulation and consumer welfare, to social protection and inclusive societies.
As Florence Gaub – the leading author of this report – puts it, foresight is a call to action, it is about human agency and the choices we make. Europeans have two alternatives: to be largely idle bystanders of a future that will be shaped by others, or to shape that future themselves. The answer seems to be clear, but it is far from certain that Europeans will act jointly and decisively to confront challenges and seize opportunities. If this report makes one point unabashedly clear, it is that even the largest EU Member States cannot hope to achieve much on their own in this complex, contested and competitive world. Global trends are shaped by global powers, and 2030 is right around the corner. The choice is ours, and ours alone.
The future is now, and tomorrow’s challenges (and opportunities) are determined by today’s choices.
Florence Gaub
Florence Gaub is the Deputy Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and is the lead author of this ESPAS report Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. In addition to overseeing the EUISS' research activities, Florence works on strategic foresight, geopolitics as well as the Middle East and North Africa. Florence is widely published, and her two latest publications include The Cauldron: NATO’s Libya campaign and Guardians of the Arab State: Why militaries intervene in politics.
Previously employed at NATO Defence College, she was educated at Munich University, Sciences Po, the Sorbonne, and holds a PhD from Humboldt University Berlin.
The preparation of this report benefited from the contribution of many people. However, it is primarily the work of its leading author: Florence Gaub, Deputy Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). She deserves all the credit for the extraordinary feat of putting all this knowledge and foresight into words, condensing and taking onboard not only the comments and suggestions from all ESPAS partners and colleagues, but also from all who provided constructive feedback throughout the writing process. The EUISS and its Director, Gustav Lindstrom, must also be warmly recognised for enabling Florence to take on this herculean task in the midst of so many other priorities for the Institute.
It would be impossible to thank each and every individual that provided intellectual input for the report: all deserve credit without exception. Yet, some cases warrant special mention. The members of the ESPAS Steering Group – Ricardo Borges de Castro, Pierluigi Brombo, Gianluca Brunetti, Jiří Buriánek, Jim Cloos, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse, Franck Debié, Hervé Delphin, Mikolaj Dowgielewicz, James Elles, Roubini Gropas, Christian Leffler, Ann Mettler, Danièle Réchard, Leo Schulte Nordholt, Andrej Stuchlik, Paweł Świeboda, Béatrice Taulègne, Anthony Teasdale and Klaus Welle – played a central role.
Eamonn Noonan of the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) provided additional support and insights. John-Joseph Wilkins and Christian Dietrich from the EUISS read and edited the report. Annick Hilbert, the European Political Strategy Centre’s (EPSC) graphic designer laid-out this publication. Lewin Schmitt, with the invaluable help of Eline Wildöer and Marc Nikolov (all EPSC), realised this interactive web version of the report.
A strong collaboration between the EPRS Global Trends Unit, the EPSC Foresight Team as well as all members of the ESPAS Project Team has been crucial throughout.
Finally, the ESPAS Young Talent Network has consistently brought innovative insights that have lent new dynamism to the ESPAS process.
"Rather than predictability, we seek surprise to challenge our thinking; rather than ending in paralysis, we look for actionable possibilities; rather than pessimism, we write this in the spirit of constructive optimism about what we can and want to change – in Europe and the world."
"Foresight is to decision-making what reconnaissance is to warfare."