Working Paper: The urban-rural divide in anti-EU vote
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date: 09/12/2020
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This paper focuses instead on the urban-rural divide in anti-EU sentiment, and tries to explain why cities – and urban areas in general - in Europe tend to vote less for Eurosceptic parties. Using electoral data for national elections at the electoral district level for the years 2013-2018 and political parties’ orientation as assessed by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, we find robust statistical evidence of a lower anti-EU vote in cities, towns and suburbs than in rural areas. We also find that drivers of voting for anti-EU parties differ significantly between urban and rural areas in the EU and UK, despite some similarities.
We show that three factors are associated to a higher anti-EU vote in all areas:
- growth in unemployment,
- a low turnout and
- a higher share of people born outside the EU.
A sluggish economy is associated to a higher anti-EU sentiment in rural areas, but not in cities and towns and suburbs. Higher shares of university graduates, people aged 20-64, and of people born in a different EU country reduce anti-EU voting in rural areas and towns and suburbs, but have no impact in cities.