With the publication in 2020 of the INFORM Severity Index to complement the long-established INFORM Risk Index, there is now an opportunity to use both products together to better understand crises. While the Risk Index can tell us about the structural risk of crisis in a country and how it evolves over time, the Severity Index tells us how this risk ultimately translates into an actual crisis. The report also  presents some analysis of risk and severity and what they tell us about crises and how we can prevent and respond to them. 

The results show in which risk contexts crises actually happen by comparing risk information from the INFORM Risk Index 2020 and crises captured by the Severity Index from 2019-2021. The results (figure on the left) shows that the INFORM Risk Index is quite good at predicting the likelihood of a crisis occurring in a country. More than one third of the countries in the world has crises and almost all crises happened in countries classified as Medium to Very High risk.

A comparison of the INFORM Risk and Severity Indexes (figure on the right) also allows us to understand the relationship between a country’s risk and the likely severity of an actual crisis. Therefore, the INFORM Risk Index category can be considered a predictor of the maximum likely severity of a crisis occurring in that country. In other words, if a country is in the High risk category, it is unlikely to experience a Very High severity crisis.

We hope to build on this analysis in future, especially as more time-series results become available for the Severity Index.

INFORM partners believe that the availability of shared analysis of crises and disasters can lead to better coordination of actors and better outcomes for at-risk and affected people. Specifically, INFORM creates a space and process for shared analysis that can support joint strategy development, planning and action to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from crises. This can bring together development, humanitarian and other actors to manage risk and respond better when crises do occur.

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