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New risks: feedback from the IAA PLANETARY DEFENSE CONFERENCE 2021

In the 7th Planetary Defense Conference organized by the International Association of Astronauts, space agencies were discussing how to deflect an asteroid that would hit Earth in October. In the scenario they failed, and it was up to the disaster managers to prepare for impact. The debate that followed was enlightening for both the astronaut and the disaster risk community.

date:  24/06/2021

On 26-30 April 2021, in the 7th Planetary Defense Conference organized by the International Association of Astronauts, space agencies were discussing how to deflect an asteroid that would hit Earth in October. In the scenario they failed, and it was up to the disaster managers to prepare for impact. The debate that followed was enlightening for both the planetary defence and the disaster risk community. Both the Joint Research Centre and the Analytical Team of DG ECHO's Emergency Response Coordination Centre participated, along with other disaster experts globally.

Three lessons from this event.

  • First, it was the first time the Astronaut association involved disaster risk managers. The overall feedback of the audience was overwhelmingly positive: the contact between the communities spawned interest on both sides, and this will likely remain a key feature of future exercises. They had a glimpse of the complexities of the challenge, not least on communication to citizens when the area of impact is 1000kmx300km. We had a glimpse of the wealth of information, monitoring systems, tools and a scientific community that we are not aware of. A new bridge to build between communities.
  • Second, it was the first time that the Commission participated in such an event (at least to our knowledge), which came with the realisation that there are no established contingency plans for such an event. Even if probabilities are low (see the current Palermo scale), this is not an unrealistic scenario and time may be short for response. Some investment in preparation would definitely make for a better and faster response at EU level. It is good to keep our minds open for the black swans and bring them in our risk landscape.
  • Third, and most important, we realized that the Union Civil Protection Mechanism is strong. The coordination mechanisms are in place, the JRC has experience in science advice during crises, the links between science and operations are well-practiced, the role within a larger crisis management exercise in the Commission is clear. The COVID-19 pandemic showed the flexible ways the Commission can respond.