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The COVID19 scenario analysis toolbox

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been working on monitoring the Covid-19 pandemic since the very beginning. On 10 February 2021, the new Covid-19 scenario analysis toolbox was presented to the Executive Steering Committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA). Through this toolbox the user is now able to make his own analysis.

date:  10/02/2021

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Using the data of the last 15 days, the system tries to predict future cases. This help in considering the contagion-containing measures to adopt, and more generally, the control strategy with which to confront the ever-changing situation of the pandemic. The system provides some guidance on how the curve would behave depending on the measures adopted. The calculations consider a set of variables, such as vaccination (period, efficiency, etc.) and control strategies. 

The model is intended to provide a quick overview of the effect of the control and vaccination strategies in the various countries. The calculations can be done per country, at sub-national level as well as for all 27 EU Member States at once. The data can be downloaded and re-used by other users. 

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