"ECFIN New Publication" Newsletter Issues

Labour Taxation in Romania: Revised, but not changed (20/09/2019)

This study analyses the redistributive and macroeconomic impact of recent economic reforms in Romania.

A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area (20/09/2019)

This paper presents the results obtained from calibrating a Gaussian affine term structure (GATSM) based term premia model to the euro area.

Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Ireland, Spring 2019 (10/09/2019)

This report by the European Commission presents the findings of the eleventh post-programme surveillance mission to Ireland and identifies remaining challenges for the Irish economy.

Euro Area Fiscal Policy Changes: Stylised Features of the Past Two Decades (06/09/2019)

This study presents a systematic methodology for analysing the euro area fiscal stance and a narrative of its development over the last two decades.

Private Investment in Italy (06/09/2019)

This study explores the drivers and barriers affecting private investment in Italy.

Incorporating a Job Search & Matching Module in the QUEST-model (06/09/2019)

This paper presents an extension to the QUEST model that allows for the analysis of labour flows into and out of unemployment due to macroeconomic shocks.

Mortgage Tax Reforms in Sweden: Scope for a Double Dividend? (06/09/2019)

This study considers how shifts in the tax burden from labour to property could be used to tackle macroeconomic vulnerabilities in the housing sector and labour market challenges in Sweden.

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks (09/08/2019)

The paper uses an estimated macroeconomic multi-region model with commodities to analyse the evolution of euro area and United States trade balances after the Global Financial Crisis.

Pension Reform in Sweden: Sustainability and Adequacy of Public Pensions (02/08/2019)

This paper looks at the pension reforms implemented by Sweden in the 1990s and their implications for pension adequacy.

Mitigating the Gap between the Rich and the Poor: An Empirical Assessment of Key Trends and Drivers of Redistribution (02/08/2019)

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the key trends and drivers of governmental income redistribution policies.

Output Gaps and Cyclical Indicators (02/08/2019)

This discussion paper looks at the link between output gap calculations and cyclical indicators.

Cruising at Different Speeds: Similarities and Divergences between the German and the French Economies (25/07/2019)

This paper looks at the economies of France and Germany and discusses differences in their growth models and divergences in their performance since the economic crisis.

The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries (25/07/2019)

This paper documents the Global Multi-country macroeconomic model and describes its use in economic and policy analysis and forecasting in DG ECFIN.

Assessing House Prices: Insights from "Houselev", a Dataset of Price Level Estimates (25/07/2019)

This paper looks at the housing markets in 40 countries by comparing house prices in levels.

Croatia's Tourism Industry – Part 2: Curse or Blessing? (25/07/2019)

This study features an econometric analysis of the relationship between exports of goods and tourism in Croatia, investigating potential crowding-out effects and their joint impact on overall economic growth.

The 2019 Stability and Convergence Programmes: An Overview and Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance (25/07/2019)

An overview of the 2019 Stability and Convergence Programmes of EU Member States and an assessment of their implications for the euro area’s fiscal stance.

Quarterly Report on the Euro Area. Volume 18, No 1 (2019) (26/07/2019)

QREA Volume 18 N. 1 (2019) examines the extent to which market discipline enters government fiscal reaction functions; whether global factors affect inflation; and how the unwinding of macroeconomic imbalances affects convergence patterns across the euro area.

EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) – 2nd Quarter 2019 (12/07/2019)

An overview of economic developments in candidate and pre-candidate countries.

European Business Cycle Indicators - 2nd Quarter 2019 (11/07/2019)

This edition of the EBCI takes a closer look at the BCS data from the Balkan candidate countries.

Progress Towards Meeting the Economic Criteria for EU Accession: The EU Commission's 2019 Assessments (11/07/2019)

This document is a compilation of the economic chapters contained in the European Commission’s 2019 Country Reports on enlargement countries.

European Economic Forecast. Summer 2019 (10/07/2019)

The forecast for euro area GDP growth in 2019 remains unchanged at 1.2%, while the forecast for 2020 has been lowered slightly to 1.4% following the more moderate pace expected in the rest of this year (spring forecast: 1.5%). The GDP forecast for the EU remains unchanged at 1.4% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020.

Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Spain, Spring 2019 (05/07/2019)

This report by the European Commission presents the findings of the eleventh post-programme surveillance mission to Spain and identifies remaining challenges for the Spanish economy.

2019 Economic Reform Programmes of Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo*: The Commission's overview and country assessments (05/07/2019)

This report contains the Commission's assessments of the 2019 Economic Reform Programmes (ERP) of countries that are candidates or potential candidates for EU membership.

Skills Mismatch and Productivity in the EU (05/07/2019)

This study examines the dynamics of different dimensions of skills mismatch and explores the empirical relationship between these skills mismatch measures and labour productivity.