The first section of the report features results from macroeconomic and environmental modelling of the Covid-19 public health crisis. There is an increasing amount of modelling occurring in this area as the pandemic continues and datasets become available. In this quarter, over half of survey respondents are integrating Covid-19 into their policy scenarios and into economic recovery plans. Most of the modelling reported here focusses on recovery pathways and associated Green Recovery Packages. Green Recovery policies present key opportunities for countries to take advantage of reduced emissions due to the Covid-19 pandemic and maintain lower carbon emissions. Reduced use of transport during this time has opened a route to promoting greater use of public transport and electrification of transport. Overall, the pandemic has forced reduction of emissions across a number of sectors, opening the path to more aggressive climate and emissions policies to strengthen progress towards Nationally Determined Contributions and mid-century strategies.

Various developments linked to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are reported in the second section. A research team in China has published articles on allowance allocation in China’s ETS and another on integrated modelling of India’s clean energy transition. The study of China’s ETS supports their recent 2030 target to reach peak emissions before this date, showing that emissions abatement is achievable with modest GDP and consumption impacts. Air quality and energy policies in India are shown to reduce pollution related deaths, supporting India’s NDC to increase the non-fossil fuel share of power generation capacity to 40% by 2030.

In the third section, the report features research linked to long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (mid-century strategies). Japanese researchers have completed an integrated assessment of Japan’s mid-century emissions pathways in a global and national context, showing a low-carbon-budget scenario is sufficient to meet Japans greenhouse gas (GHG) 2050 emission goal. A research team in the USA has found that the impact of biomass burning (BB) aerosols is overstated in most climate models indicating mid-century strategies may have overambitious BB aerosol reduction targets.

The fourth section of the report is dedicated to developments linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). An article from researchers in Switzerland examines regional impacts of electricity sector transition in 2035 for six central European countries highlighting how national energy and climate targets can influence local communities to achieve regional equality. A study from Canada uses an open modelling platform to investigate how cross-boundary and cross-sector cooperation could boost sustainable development across the water-energy-food nexus in the Indus Valley in South Asia. This shows the potential for international policy to address the impacts of climate change by considering the SDGs. Researchers in China looked at the co-benefits of China’s carbon pricing policy on the reduction of pollutants and the improvement of public health. This study supports China’s recent goal to achieve peak emissions by 2030, and highlights the environmental and public health benefits of a green recovery from Covid-19.