Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity.

The authors use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. They focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use.

This study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target.

This study introduces methodological improvements in leading sectoral energy models (PRIMES-BuiMo, EDGE-Buildings) to simulate more accurately the effect of potential lifestyle transformations in households. The improved models were used to develop scenarios for the residential sector of the European Union up to 2050, considering two different climate targets and three distinct assumptions about the adoption rate and intensity of lifestyle changes.

The ICAT Just Transition Monitoring Guide provides guidance to monitor and analyze social, economic and environmental changes that may occur as countries implement policies to transition to low-carbon and climate resilient future.

This study assesses the cost effectiveness of CCS technology by comparing CO2 avoidance costs with SCC probability ranges derived from an automated generalized IAM-based machine learning approach. This methodology offers a significant advancement by providing a rapid evaluation of SCC probability distribution across various scenarios, thereby capturing uncertainties within the SCC and aiding the assessment of the economic benefits of CCS expansion. The findings indicate that average SCC values decrease by approximately 23.8 % by 2100 with additional CCS expansion.

To assess if a net-negative economy system is feasible in the context of Chile, a new regional version of the Global Change Analysis Model for Chile is developed. The model is used to investigate the effects and required levels of investment in renewable energy and decarbonization of end-use sectors to achieve economy-wide net negative emissions scenarios. The design of net negative pathways follows a statistical approach based on the expected sequestration capacity in 2050 and its corresponding confidence interval. The results are compared to scenarios that are aligned with the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.

The authors employ the Global Trade Environment Model-Food to investigate the impact of the latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on global and regional economies and energy systems. Findings indicate that achieving conditional NDC results in higher global economic losses (−1.17 % in real GDP in 2030) than unconditional NDCs (−0.96 %).

Parties to the Paris Agreement submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR) with information on mitigation, adaptation and support. By 31 December 2024, the deadline for submission of the first BTR, 86 Parties submitted such a report. Twelve Parties did not provide a BTR but submitted related information. Many Parties went beyond the mandatory requirements, in particular by reporting information on climate change impacts and adaptation, on loss and damage, and on support needed and received. The BTRs that have been submitted can serve as good practice examples for Parties that are finalizing their reports.

This guide was developed through close collaboration between the 2050 Pathways Platform and the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Initiative (DDP) at IDDRI. In order to help countries achieve alignment of short-term plans with the long-term systemic transformations needed to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, it provides a practical framework based on the premise that countries can fully understand how their NDCs align with the Paris Agreement only by viewing alignment through the lens of a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), which can highlight transformations and actions that might be overlooked in a short-term perspective, expanding the scope of the alignment process.

The Russian military aggression against Ukraine has had significant global impacts on energy security, economy and geopolitics. The 2022 global energy crisis raises questions about how the war affects the energy transition and global climate policy.

Fairness considerations have long been central to the international climate change mitigation discourse, generating numerous theoretical and philosophical debates. This article addresses the pressing need for practical guidance in developing assertions of fairness in national mitigation contributions. The Paris Agreement mandates that subsequent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under Article 4 represent a progression compared to previous NDCs. Further decisions under the Paris Agreement mandate that NDCs include clear and transparent considerations of fairness, as recalled in the first Global Stocktake.

This study explores the impact of lifestyle changes on the global energy system and CO2 emissions using the PROMETHEUS model, an advanced energy–economy–environment system model. In this research we present scenarios in which lifestyle changes, such as reduced private car use and increased adoption of public transport and energy-savings behavior in households, are gradually introduced and complement technological and policy measures within the energy transition framework.

Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry.

In this paper, the authors model a stylized net-zero emissions (NZEs) in Africa by 2050, with focus on three land-based biological carbon removal approaches: afforestation/reforestation (AR), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and biochar. They find that by 2050, the total gross carbon removal is projected to reach 1.2 GtCO2 yr−1 when all three carbon removal approaches are available, and 0.5 GtCO2 yr−1 when Africa relies solely on AR. Pursuing NZE with only AR or AR alongside biochar in Africa would be the most expensive mitigation option but they lead to the lowest residual fossil fuel and industry CO2 emissions.

This practical guide by The Climate Lead Group and the 2050 Pathways Platform draws on lessons from Latin American and Caribbean countries that have used the “Robust Decision Making” (RDM) approach in designing their LTS, providing a practical 10-step framework helps stakeholders at all levels co-create long-term strategies that stay robust and effective under a variety of uncertain conditions and scenarios. RDM expands on traditional decision-making methods by involving stakeholders in defining objectives and crafting strategies that can remain effective across various future scenarios.

This collaborative article discusses various aspects of pathways towards India's net-zero goal to address the gap in literature by looking at broad and inter-related dimensions of 'national and sub-national perspectives', 'sectoral and technological transitions', and 'enablers' needed for India's transition. While the larger net-zero debate relates to all greenhouse gases, the authors focus here on carbon dioxide. The assessment aims to inform not just India's policy makers and stakeholders, but various researchers, practitioners and governments around the world for them to be better aware of the various aspects of India's net-zero debate.

This study assesses the cost effectiveness of CCS technology by comparing CO2 avoidance costs with SCC probability ranges derived from an automated generalized IAM-based machine learning approach. This methodology offers a significant advancement by providing a rapid evaluation of SCC probability distribution across various scenarios, thereby capturing uncertainties within the SCC and aiding the assessment of the economic benefits of CCS expansion. The findings indicate that average SCC values decrease by approximately 23.8 % by 2100 with additional CCS expansion.

To assess if a net-negative economy system is feasible in the context of Chile, a new regional version of the Global Change Analysis Model for Chile is developed. The model is used to investigate the effects and required levels of investment in renewable energy and decarbonization of end-use sectors to achieve economy-wide net negative emissions scenarios. The design of net negative pathways follows a statistical approach based on the expected sequestration capacity in 2050 and its corresponding confidence interval. The results are compared to scenarios that are aligned with the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.

Climate stabilization requires the mobilization of substantial investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies, especially in emerging and developing economies. However, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries.