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Archive:Employment in detail - quarterly statistics

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Data extracted in August 2020

Planned article update: October 2020


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The COVID-19 pandemic generated pessimistic forecasts in economic results through the European Union. In most EU Member States, businesses as well as public sector have been shaken by worldwide shock waves due to the lock-down and other health related measures. Containment measures like extended short-time work schemes and guaranteed loans have been settled down in order to dampen the impact on employment, this allowed keeping employed people attached to their jobs in the first stage of the crisis to a certain extent avoiding lay-offs even temporary. However, the labour market might have suffered by reducing inflows into employment. It is indeed expected that enterprises slowed down or cancelled hiring process due to the lock-down and the foreseen recession. This might be a first effect of the sanitary crisis on employment. Later on, through the experience of the crisis, some enterprises might lay off in a larger extent. The sanitary crisis emphasizes also a slowdown already begun in the previous quarters in 2019.

This article reports on the employment evolution based on quarterly results of the Labour Force Survey. It looks at the impact of the crisis on the labour market in the different type of activities as well as the consequences on employed people by education level attainment and by professional status.

Full article


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Disparate employment rates and evolutions for young, mid-age people or seniors

Among the EU Member States, the share of employed people in the total population, commonly referred to as the employment rate varied in the first quarter of 2020 for people aged 15-64 from 78.4% in the Netherlands, 75.4 in Sweden% and 75.0% in Estonia to 61.4% in Croatia, 58.4% in Italy and 55.9% in Greece. Half of the EU Member States showed a higher employment rate than 69.8% which is the median (see Figure 1). Between 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, the employment rate increased in most of the countries, 15 countries of of the 26 EU Member States for which data is available. This increase was substantial and exceeded 1p.p. in Malta (+2p.p.), Poland (+1.2p.p.) and Romania (+1.2p.p.). On the same period, eight EU countries recorded a lower employment rate compared to 2019Q1. Luxembourg, Sweden and Croatia recording the highest decreases, more than 0.5p.p. with -0.9 percentage points (p.p.), -0.8 p.p. and -0.6 p.p. These results can be seen in Figure 2. However, behind these figures, a great variation in the employment rate but also in its evolution is observed according to the age of employed people.

Less young employed people in 15 EU Member States in 2020Q1 compared to 2019Q1

Focusing on young people (aged 15-24 years), more than six out of ten young Dutch people were employed in 2020Q1 (64.7%). The Netherlands is followed by far by Denmark and Austria in which around half of them were employed (53.2% and 50% respectively) among the total population of young people. On the opposite, less than two out of ten people aged 15-24 were employed at the same period in Italy, Bulgaria and Greece (17.5%, 17% and 13.8%). Over the last year, comparing 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, employment of young people decreased in 15 out of the 26 EU Member States for which data is available in 2020Q1 (which means all EU Member States without Germany). The employment rate decreased by more than 2p.p. in Luxembourg, Czechia and Bulgaria (-5.4%, -2.2% and -2.0%) in one year. In Italy and Hungary, the employment rate remained stable while one third of the countries (i.e. nine countries) recorded a higher employment rate of young people: Ireland (+1.7p.p.), Estonia (+1.6p.p.), Belgium (+1.1p.p.).

People aged 25-54 and senior workers maintained their employment rate in most EU countries

Comparing the first quarter 2020 to the same quarter 2019, the employment rate increased in 18 EU Member States and stable in one. Malta, Greece and Poland recorded an increase greater than 1p.p. between both quarters, respectively by +2.8%, 1.2% and 1.0%. The share of employed people aged 55-64 in the total population of the same age decreased in only three countries on the same period, namely in Bulgaria (-0.1p.p.), Austria (-0.7p.p) and Sweden (-1.5p.p.). Increase by more than 2p.p. of the employment rates of senior workers were observed in Latvia (+3.4p.p), Finland, Estonia and Hungary (+2.2p.p.), Belgium and Spain (+2p.p.).

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is expected that the downturn in the business activity had direct and short-term consequences like, among others, freezing the hiring, stopping contract before the end of the probationary period and not renewing fixed-term contracts. Young people is therefore the first age group that might be impacted. The attachment to the labour market might be therefore less strong than for people aged 25-54 and senior workers. Older people already in employment might suffer in a second stage mass dismissals.

Figure 3: Employment rates by sex and country, people aged 20-64, 2020Q1
(in % of the total population)
Source: Eurostat (lfsi_emp_q)


Figure 4: Change in the employment rates by sex and country, people aged 20-64, 2019Q4 - 2020Q1
(in percentage points)
Source: Eurostat (lfsi_emp_q)

The higher is level of education, the higher is the employment rate

Among the 26 EU Member States for which 2020Q1 data on education has been released, the following pattern can be observed although in different extent in all countries: the employment rate of people aged between 15 and 64 who attained a high level of education (tertiary degree) is higher than the employment rate recorded by those who attained at most a medium level i.e. upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education level. In the same way, those people with a medium level of education accounted for more employed people than people who attained at most the lower secondary education level (see Figure 3). In Malta, Lithuania and Slovenia, more than 90% of the population aged 15-64 with a high level of education is employed while Spain, Italy and Greece recorded the lowest employment rates in this category which stood for less than 80% in the first quarter 2020. These three countries also had the lowest employment rates for people who attained a medium level of education (less than 65%). In this same education category which is the medium level, more than 80% is nevertheless employed in Sweden, Czechia and the Netherlands. The share of employed people with a low level of education are much below the shares found for more educated people in teh vast majority of countries. In Slovakia and in Czechia, the gap between the employment rate of people with a medium level of education and a low level of education reached more than 50p.p.: 18.6% (for people with a low level) against 74.6% (for people with a medium level) in Slovakia and 27.9% against 80.5% in Czechia. Moreover, more than six out of ten people with a low level of education are employed in Malta, the Netherlands and Portugal (64.2%, 61,6% and 60.4%) but less than three out of ten of those people were employed in Czechia (27.9%), Croatia (24.6%), Poland (23.3%), Lithuania (21.3%) and Slovakia (18.6%).

In terms of evolution, the employment rate decreased in 12 out of 26 EU Member States for people with a low level of education, in nine EU MSs for people with a medium level of education and again in 12 EU MSs for people with a high level of education (see Figure 4). Nevertheless, only five EU Member States recorded a higher share of employed people for each category of education level, namely Malta, Denmark, Romania, Finland and Poland and only one EU Member State, Portugal, recorded a lower share for all the categories. This means that the vast majority of countries recorded disparate developments among the education categories.

Figure 3: Employment rates by sex and country, people aged 20-64, 2020Q1
(in % of the total population)
Source: Eurostat (lfsi_emp_q)


Figure 4: Change in the employment rates by sex and country, people aged 20-64, 2019Q4 - 2020Q1
(in percentage points)
Source: Eurostat (lfsi_emp_q)

Focus on employment of young people with low, medium and high level of education

Figure 5 presents the specific evolutions of the employment rate by age and also by education level. Based on this figure again, it can be easily noticed that more countries recorded a decrease in the share of employed young people than in the for mid-age people or seniors. Mainly, a vast majority of the EU Member States, 19 exactly out of 26, registered a decrease in the employment share of young people with a medium level of education between the first quarter 2019 and the first quarter 2020, two countries maintained the employment rate at the same level and only five showed a higher share of employed people aged 15-24 with a medium level of education. These five countries are Belgium, Greece and Hungary with a increase of the employment rate between 0 and less than 0.5p.p. as well as Estonia and Romania with an increase higher than 0.5p.p. The decrease in terms of employment is not so frequent among countries for young people with a low or high level of education, for which a lower employment rates were registered in 11 countries. In the other age categories i.e. 25-54 and 55-64, the category of people with a medium level of education is the category for which less countries recorded a decrease, seven exactly for both categories. A lower employment rate was reported in 12 countries compared to the first quarter 2019 for people aged 25-54 with low level of education and in 10 countries for the same aged people with a high level of education. Among senior (55-64), the level of employment in the total population decreased more frequently, precisely in 12 EU Member States for people with low level of education than for those with a medium or high level of education (respectively in seven and ten countries). Regardless the education category, less countries might report a lower employment rate given that inside a age category, this might not be the same countries recording a decrease/increase in the category by education level.

Figure 4: Change in the employment rates by sex and country, people aged 20-64, 2019Q4 - 2020Q1
(in percentage points)
Source: Eurostat (lfsi_emp_q)

Divergent developments by type of occupation

Many countries with less employed people in elementary occupations and craft and related trades workers but with more managers and professionals

Between the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter 2020, there were more employed professionals in 22 EU Member States, a vast majority of the countries (see Figure 6). This category encompasses people who "increase the existing stock of knowledge; apply scientific or artistic concepts and theories; teach about the foregoing in a systematic manner; or engage in any combination of these activities", it includes among other researchers, scientists and mathematicians. The increase has been greater than 0.5p.p. in eight countries. Actually, the four countries out of 26 in which the employment decreased by 0.5% or less are Croatia, Cyprus, Austria and Romania. The same finding has been observed for the managers but in a lesser degree. Indeed, the number of managers increased by more than 0.5% in 10 countries, and by 0.5% or less in six countries. In 10 countries, however, the number of managers decreased by more than 0.5% in Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Hungary and Finland and decreased by 0.5% or less in Spain, Croatia and Portugal. Another category that less frequently increased among the EU Member States but still more than other occupations category is the technicians and associate professionals. Indeed over the year between 2019Q1 and 2010Q1, there were more technicians and associate professionals in 14 countries but in 11, the recorded increase equals to 0.6% or less. At the other end of the scale, people employed in elementary occupations were less in the first quarter 2020 than in the first quarter 2019 in 17 countries. The elementary occupations involve the performance of simple and routine tasks which may require the use of hand-held tools and considerable physical effort. The decrease of employed people in this group exceeded 0.5% in five countries which are Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, Slovenia and Slovakia. The craft and related trades workers is another occupation category that recorded a lower number of employed people in many countries, in 16 out of 26 exactly. Estonia, Latvia, Portugal and Sweden recorded greater increase than 0.5% between both quarters. Note: Craft and related trades workers apply specific technical and practical knowledge and skills to construct and maintain buildings; form metal; erect metal structures; set machine tools or make, fit, maintain and repair machinery, equipment or tools; carry out printing work; and produce or process foodstuffs, textiles, wooden, metal and other articles, including handicraft goods.

Potential first impact on the activity sectors

Compiling the 26 EU Member States for which data on activity is available (i.e. all without Germany), the given picture (see Figure 7) shows that in terms of employment, the four following categories: Industry (B-E), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, human health and social work activities and, education cover almost half of the total employment registered by all the countries put together (respectively, these categories accounted for 18%, 14%, 10% and 8% of the total employment.

Among all activities, some of them seem to be more substantial between 2019Q1 and 2020Q1 in a significant number of countries. This is the case of the professional, scientific and technical activities which category increased Human health and social work activities




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Source data for tables and graphs

Data sources

All figures in this article are based on seasonally adjusted quarterly results from European labour force survey (EU-LFS).

Source: The European Union labour force survey (EU-LFS) is the largest European household sample survey providing quarterly and annual results on labour participation of people aged 15 and over as well as on persons outside the labour force. It covers residents in private households. Conscripts in military or community service are not included in the results. The EU-LFS is based on the same target populations and uses the same definitions in all countries, which means that the results are comparable between countries.

European aggregates: EU refers to the sum of EU-27 Member States. If data are unavailable for a country, the calculation of the corresponding aggregates takes into account the data for the same country for the most recent period available. Such cases are indicated.

Definitions: The concepts and definitions used in the labour force survey follow the guidelines of the International Labour Organisation.

Five different articles on detailed technical and methodological information are linked from the overview page of the online publication EU labour force survey.

Context

The COVID-19 virus hit Europe in January and February 2020, with the first cases confirmed in Spain, France and Italy. COVID-19 infections have now been diagnosed in all European Union (EU) Member States.

To fight the pandemic, EU Member States have taken a wide variety of measures.

From the second week of March, most countries closed retail shops apart from supermarkets, pharmacies and banks. Bars, restaurants and hotels have also been closed. In Italy and Spain, non-essential production was stopped and several countries imposed regional or even national lock-down measures which further stifled the economic activities in many areas.

In addition, schools were closed, public events were cancelled and private gatherings (with numbers of persons varying from 2 to 50) were banned in most Member States.

The large majority of the prevention measures were taken during mid-March 2020 and most of the prevention measures and restrictions were kept for the whole of April and May 2020.

The first quarter of 2020 is consequently the first quarter in which the labour market across the EU has been affected by COVID-19 measures taken by the Member States.

Employment and unemployment as defined by the ILO concept are, in this particular situation, not sufficient to describe the developments taking place in the labour market. In this first phase of the crisis, active measures to contain employment losses led to absences from work rather than dismissals, and individuals could not search for work or were not available due to the containment measures, thus not counting as unemployed.

The quarterly data on employment will allow along the quarters to report on the impact of the economic crisis on employment. This specific article focuses on the age and the level of education attainment of employed people in order to determine potential categories more or less affected by the economic downturn. It will also emphasize the evolution of part-time employment and temporary contracts. A supplementing article to this current article on the evolution of employment by activity and professional status is also available in the context of the publication

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LFS main indicators (t_lfsi)
Population, activity and inactivity - LFS adjusted series (t_lfsi_act)
Employment - LFS adjusted series (t_lfsi_emp)
Unemployment - LFS adjusted series (t_une)
LFS series - Detailed annual survey results (t_lfsa)
LFS series - Specific topics (t_lfst)
LFS main indicators (lfsi)
Employment and activity - LFS adjusted series (lfsi_emp)
Unemployment - LFS adjusted series (une)
Labour market transitions - LFS longitudinal data (lfsi_long)
LFS series - Detailed quarterly survey results (from 1998 onwards) (lfsq)
LFS series - Detailed annual survey results (lfsa)
LFS series - Specific topics (lfst)
LFS ad-hoc modules (lfso)


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