Population and population change statistics
- Data extracted in July 2016. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database. Planned article update: July 2017.
This article gives an overview of the development of European Union (EU) population statistics, detailing the two components of population change: natural population change and net migration plus statistical adjustment. More information on net migration is provided within an article on migration and migrant population statistics.
- 1 Main statistical findings
- 2 Data sources and availability
- 3 Context
- 4 See also
- 5 Further Eurostat information
- 6 External links
Main statistical findings
EU-28 population continues to grow
The current demographic situation in the EU-28 is characterised by continuing population growth. While the population of the EU-28 as a whole increased during 2015, the population of 11 EU Member States declined. The latest information available is also of interest, as 2015 was the first year (since the series began in 1961) when there was a natural decrease in population numbers in the EU-28.
On 1 January 2016 the population of the EU-28 was estimated at 510.1 million inhabitants, which was 1.8 million more than a year before. The increase in population numbers during 2015 was bigger than that recorded during 2014 when the population of the EU-28 had risen by 1.3 million.
Over a longer period, the population of the EU-28 grew from 406.7 million in 1960 to 510.1 million in 2016, an increase of 103.4 million people (see Figure 1). The rate of population growth has slowed gradually in recent decades: for example, the EU-28’s population increased, on average, by about 1.5 million persons per year during the period 2005–16, compared with an average increase of around 3.3 million persons per year during the 1960s.
In 2015, deaths outnumbered live births in the EU-28 (for the first time since the time series began in 1961), resulting in the aforementioned natural decrease in the population. As such, the increase in population recorded during 2015 for the EU-28 could be fully attributed to net migration and statistical adjustment; there were however variations in the patterns observed in the EU Member States as shown below. In 2015, net migration and statistical adjustment accounted for an increase of 1.9 million persons, approximately twice the increase in 2014 and the largest increase recorded since the time series began in 1961; since 1992, net migration and statistical adjustment has been the main determinant of population growth in the EU-28 (see Figure 2).
Net migration in the EU-28 increased considerably from the mid-1980s onwards, while the number of live births fell, and the number of deaths increased. The gap between live births and deaths in the EU-28 narrowed considerably from 1961 onwards (see Figure 3). In recent years, the difference between births and deaths (the natural change in population) has been very low and — as noted above — a natural decrease in population numbers was recorded in 2015 when the number of deaths passed the number of births. Since the number of deaths is expected to increase as the baby-boom generation continues to age, and assuming that the fertility rate remains at a relatively low level, negative natural population change (more deaths than births) could well continue. In this case, the EU-28’s overall population decline or growth is likely to depend largely on the contribution made by migration.
Population change at a national level
The population of individual EU Member States on 1 January 2016 ranged from 0.4 million in Malta to 82.2 million in Germany. Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy together comprised more than half (53.8 %) of the total EU-28 population on 1 January 2016 (see Table 1).
The population of the EU-28 increased during 2015 by 1.8 million people. Population growth was unevenly distributed across the EU Member States: a total of 17 Member States observed an increase in their respective populations, while the population fell in the remaining 11 Member States. Luxembourg, Austria, Germany, Malta and Sweden recorded the highest population growth rates in 2015, with increases above 10.0 per 1 000 persons, close to triple the EU-28 average of 3.5 per 1 000 persons (see Table 2). Among these five EU Member States with the highest rates of population growth, the fastest expansion in population was recorded in Luxembourg with an increase of 23.3 per 1 000 persons. The largest relative decreases in population were reported by Lithuania (-11.3 per 1 000 persons), Latvia (-8.7) and Croatia (-8.2).
Analysing the two components of population change in the national data, eight types of population change can be identified, distinguishing growth or decline and the relative weights of natural change and net migration — see Table 3 for the full typology. In 2015, the highest crude rate of natural increase of population was registered in Ireland (7.7 per 1 000 persons), followed by Cyprus (3.9) and Luxembourg (3.7). A total of 13 EU Member States had negative rates of natural change, with the largest reductions occurring in Bulgaria (-6.2 per 1 000 persons), Hungary and Croatia (both -4.0) and Romania (-3.8). In relative terms, Luxembourg (19.6 per 1 000 persons), Austria (14.2), Germany (14.1) and Malta (9.7) had the highest crude rates of net migration in 2015, while Lithuania (-7.7 per 1 000 persons), Latvia (-5.4), Croatia (-4.3) and Greece (-3.3) recorded the largest negative crude net migration rates.
Among the 17 EU Member States where the population increased in 2015, 12 recorded both a natural increase and net migration contributing to their population growth. In Ireland and Cyprus, natural population increase was the sole driver of population growth, as net migration was negative. Conversely, population growth in Germany, the Czech Republic and Estonia was due solely to positive net migration, as their natural population change was negative.
Of the 11 EU Member States that reported a reduction in their level of population during 2015, five — Greece, Spain, Croatia, Latvia and Lithuania — recorded a decline largely as a result of negative net migration (although this was supplemented by a relatively low negative rate of natural population change). Conversely, in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Romania the decrease in the level of population was mostly driven by a negative rate of natural population change (supplemented by a relatively low negative rate of net migration). In Italy, the decline in the population was solely due to negative natural change, while net migration was positive.
Data sources and availability
The demographic balance provides an overview of annual demographic developments in the EU Member States; statistics on population change are available in absolute figures and as crude rates.
Population change — or population growth — in a given year is the difference between the population size on 1 January of the given year and the corresponding level from 1 January of the previous year. It consists of two components: natural change and net migration plus statistical adjustment. Natural population change is the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths. If natural change is positive then it is often referred to as a natural increase. Net migration is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. In the context of the annual demographic balance, Eurostat produces net migration figures by taking the difference between total population change and natural change; this concept is referred to as net migration plus statistical adjustment.
Statistics on population change and the structure of population are increasingly used to support policymaking and to provide the opportunity to monitor demographic behaviour within political, economic, social and cultural contexts. In particular, this concerns demographic developments that focus on a likely reduction in the relative importance of the working-age population and a corresponding increase in the number of older persons. These statistics may be used to support a range of different analyses, including studies relating to population ageing and its effects on the sustainability of public finance and welfare, the evaluation of fertility as a background for family policies, or the economic and social impact of demographic change.
- Fertility statistics
- Migration and migrant population statistics
- Mortality and life expectancy statistics
- Population structure and ageing
Further Eurostat information
- Demography report — 2015 edition
- Towards a ‘baby recession’ in Europe? — Statistics in focus 13/2013
- Highly educated men and women likely to live longer — Statistics in focus 24/2010
- Demographic outlook
- Population, see:
- Population (demo_pop)
- Regional data (demopreg)
Methodology / Metadata
- Fertility (ESMS metadata file — demo_fer_esms)
- Mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mor_esms)
- Population (ESMS metadata file — demo_pop_esms)
Source data for tables and figures (MS Excel)
- European Commission — Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs — Demographic developments and projections