Support study on the climate adaptation and cross-border investments need to realise the TEN-T network

The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) is increasingly vulnerable to climate-related risks, including heatwaves, river floods, wildfires, droughts and coastal flooding. These hazards threaten all transport modes, leading to infrastructure damage, service disruptions and increased maintenance costs. Preparing the network for mid-century climate conditions (2024–2075) requires an estimated investment of €71 billion. The Transport Vulnerability Index (TVI) highlights significant disparities in preparedness among Member States, with nearly half of the required adaptation funds needed in countries that are less equipped to handle climate extremes. These estimates are conservative, as they exclude certain hazards, variations in event severity and localized risks, emphasizing the need for further assessments.

Beyond climate adaptation, completing the TEN-T Core and Extended Core networks is critical for the EU’s economic growth, territorial cohesion and resilience. This effort demands an estimated €866 billion, of which €201 billion is allocated for key cross-border projects and €39 billion for compliance with rail technical standards. Failure to complete cross-border connections could reduce international rail traffic by 14% for passengers and 7.5% for freight by 2050, compared to baseline projections. Furthermore, the EU’s GDP could decrease by 0.4% in 2030 and 0.8% in 2050, alongside missed opportunities to enhance trade and competitiveness.

The Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) is identified as a cornerstone funding mechanism, essential for enabling high-quality, interoperable, and sustainable infrastructure. The CEF’s support is particularly crucial for projects characterized by high engineering complexity, limited commercial viability, or substantial upfront costs. Investments in cross-border projects demonstrate a strong GDP multiplier, estimated at 13 by 2040 and 31 by 2050.

In conclusion, substantial and well-coordinated investments are imperative to complete and climate-proof the TEN-T network. These efforts will not only ensure economic growth and resilience but also safeguard critical transport infrastructure from the escalating impacts of climate change.