Navigating Emerging Radicalisation Threats in a Changing Europe

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As the world enters a new and potentially more turbulent era, Europe must remain agile in addressing emerging radicalisation threats. It is crucial to understand the sources and evolution of these threats and to be prepared with appropriate policy responses. New and evolving trends make this policy field increasingly complex.

Radicalisation efforts, whether by individuals or groups, increasingly utilise both offline opportunities and online platforms. The distinction between these two domains is becoming increasingly blurred, as tools and techniques once clearly confined to one or the other are losing relevance. This calls for a reassessment of traditional policies. Additionally, the rise of Artificial Intelligence adds a critical layer of complexity to the radicalisation process, which Europe must address.

Various forms of extremism, previously disconnected, are now converging in their rhetoric, organisational structures, and mobilisation tactics. The once-clear ideological distinctions between extremist groups are increasingly out of step with the socio-political realities of today. As a result, conceptualising and understanding extremist trends has become more complex, with detrimental effects on the formulation of effective policies.

Geopolitical turmoil significantly impacts European security. The interplay of geopolitical crises and radicalisation dynamics is reshaping realities on the ground. Undesirable foreign influences are increasingly infiltrating European societies, contributing to societal polarisation and exerting undue influence on political systems. The war in Ukraine amplifies the potential for Russian influence, while dramatic developments in the Middle East provide a backdrop for new radicalisation efforts in Europe. Furthermore, state-sponsored terrorism is making a return to the European continent.

P/CVE experts are also sounding the alarm about the rising danger of radicalisation among youth and minors. The growing number of teenagers involved in extremism, the younger age of radicalised individuals, increasing levels of violence, and more frequent cases of independent action by young extremists highlight the complexities of new forms of extremism.

Addressing youth extremism requires a comprehensive approach that tackles underlying societal issues and genuine grievances, while respecting rights and freedoms. It is crucial to continuously evaluate and update risk and vulnerability indicators. Policymakers must be mindful of the risks of stigmatising and alienating large segments of European youth when designing policies and response strategies.

Given the complex and emerging trends outlined above, adaptive and multifaceted approaches to monitoring, understanding, and countering radicalisation and extremism are essential.  The EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation is at the forefront of Europe’s efforts to prepare for and confront these emerging challenges. Its Research Committee plays a pivotal role in bridging research and policy, ensuring strategic direction in these turbulent times.

Author: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)