The EU is among the most exposed advanced economies, due to its geographical proximity to the war and heavy reliance on gas imports from Russia. Amid elevated uncertainty, high energy price pressures, erosion of households' purchasing power, a weaker external environment and tighter financing conditions are expected to tip the EU, the euro area and most Member States into recession in the last quarter of the year. Still, the potent momentum from 2021 and strong growth in the first half of the year are set to lift real GDP growth in 2022 as a whole to 3.3% in the EU (3.2% in the euro area) - well above the 2.7% projected in the Summer Interim Forecast.