The euro area economy is forecast to grow by 4.3% this year and 4.4% next year. This represents a significant upgrade of the growth outlook compared to the Winter 2021 Economic Forecast which the Commission presented in February. Growth rates will continue to vary across the EU, but all Member States should see their economies return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. The EU and euro area economies are expected to rebound strongly as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased. This growth will be driven by private consumption, investment, and a rising demand for EU exports from a strengthening global economy. Public investment, as a proportion of GDP, is set to reach its highest level in more than a decade in 2022. This will be driven by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the key instrument at the heart of NextGenerationEU. The risks surrounding the outlook are high and will remain so as long as the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic hangs over the economy. Other potential upside or downside risks include the propensity of households to spend, consumers' relative desire to maintain high levels of precautionary savings, the timing of policy support withdrawal, the impact of corporate distress on the labour market and the financial sector, and growth in the global economy.