According to the forecast released on 7 February, the European economy is expected to grow for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with expansion forecast in every Member State. The overall pace of growth is projected to moderate, however, compared to the high rates of recent years and the outlook is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Economic activity moderated in the second half of last year as global trade growth slowed, uncertainty sapped confidence, and output in some Member States was adversely affected by temporary domestic factors, such as disruptions in car production, social tensions and fiscal policy uncertainty. As a result, GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU likely slipped to 1.9% in 2018, down from 2.4% in 2017. While the European economy is set to continue to benefit from improving labour market conditions, favourable financing conditions and a slightly expansionary fiscal stance, euro area GDP is now forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020, while the EU GDP growth forecast has also been revised down to 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. A high level of uncertainty surrounds the economic outlook, including trade tensions, a potentially more sharply slowing Chinese economy, and abrupt changes in risk sentiment and growth expectations, as well as the “Brexit” process.