Staff from the European Commission, in liaison with staff from the European Central Bank, visited Lisbon from 27-30 November 2018 for the ninth post-programme mission to Portugal. The mission was coordinated with an International Monetary Fund post-program monitoring visit. Staff from the European Stability Mechanism participated in the meetings in the context of its Early Warning System. The economic expansion continued in 2018, albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2017, mainly on account of a slowdown in exports and investment. This notwithstanding, employment growth has remained strong and unemployment has fallen to a 16-year low and is now below the euro area average. Economic growth is projected to moderate further over the next two years, reflecting a weaker outlook for Portugal's main trading partners as well as low potential growth, which is held back by structural rigidities in the Portuguese economy. Portugal's still high public debt-to-GDP ratio makes it vulnerable to shocks, particularly in the context of rising global economic risks. Moreover, the 2019 draft budget appears at risk of deviating significantly from the structural fiscal adjustment required by the Stability and Growth Pact.