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Ireland Post-Programme Surveillance: strong employment growth and construction investment expected to sustain growth momentum

Staff from the European Commission, in liaison with staff from the European Central Bank, visited Dublin from 13 to 16 November 2018 for the tenth post-programme mission to Ireland.

date:  22/11/2018

See alsoStaff statement following the tenth post...

Staff from the European Commission, in liaison with staff from the European Central Bank, visited Dublin from 13 to 16 November 2018 for the tenth post-programme mission to Ireland. This was coordinated with an International Monetary Fund staff visit. Staff from the European Stability Mechanism participated in the meetings in the context of its Early Warning System. Strong employment growth, in conjunction with increasing wages, continues to support household income and private consumption. This and construction investment are expected to sustain domestic growth momentum in the short term, but risks remain. Risks are primarily external and relate to uncertainties regarding the terms of the UK's withdrawal from the EU as well as changes to the international taxation and trade environment. Public finances have further improved, underpinned by increasing corporate tax revenue. A broadly balanced position is expected in 2019, improving to surplus thereafter. Non-performing loans have been declining although long-term arrears remain a concern and require well-calibrated action. Despite accelerating supply, the housing shortage persists, and affordability indicators remain above their long-term average.