Growth is set to remain strong in 2018 and 2019, at 2.1% this year and 2% next year in both the EU and the euro area, according to the Summer 2018 Interim Economic Forecast released on 12 July. After five consecutive quarters of vigorous expansion, however, economic momentum moderated in the first half of 2018 and is now set to be 0.2 percentage points lower in both the EU and the euro area than had been projected in the spring. The moderation in growth rates is partly the result of temporary factors, but rising trade tensions, higher oil prices and political uncertainty in some Member States may also have played a role. Nonetheless, the fundamental conditions for sustained economic growth in the EU and the euro area remain in place, and economic momentum is expected to strengthen somewhat in the second half of this year, as labour market conditions improve, household debt declines, consumer confidence remains high and monetary policy remains supportive. While the recent strong economic performance has proven to be resilient, the forecast remains susceptible to significant downside risks, which have increased since spring.