The European economy has entered its fifth year of recovery, which is now reaching all Member States. This is expected to continue at a largely steady pace this year and next. In its Spring Forecast released on 11 May, the European Commission expects euro area GDP growth of 1.7% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 (1.6% and 1.8% in the Winter Forecast). GDP growth in the EU as a whole is expected to remain constant at 1.9% in both years (1.8% in both years in the Winter Forecast). The global economy gathered momentum late last year and early this year as growth in many advanced and emerging economies picked up simultaneously. While inflation has risen significantly in recent months, it is expected to remain relatively stable as the effect of rising oil prices fades away. Private consumption expanded at its fastest pace in 10 years in 2016 but is set to moderate this year as inflation partly erodes gains in the purchasing power of households. Investment is expected to expand fairly steadily but remains hampered by the modest growth outlook and the need to continue deleveraging in some sectors. Unemployment continues its downward trend, but it remains high in many countries. Both the general government deficit-to-GDP ratio and the gross debt-to-GDP ratio are expected to fall in 2017 and 2018, in both the euro area and the EU. Overall, risks have become more balanced than in the winter but they remain tilted to the downside.