While a vast number of econometric models have been developed to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures prior to their release, virtually all models focus only on predicting the growth rate of GDP. Although that is obviously a highly relevant estimation target, correctly predicting the profile of GDP growth (i.e. whether growth rates will increase or decrease compared to the preceding quarter) can sometimes be even more important from an economic or policy point of view. Against that backdrop, DG ECFIN staff has recently experimented with new types of forecasting models that are explicitly tailored to forecast the profile of GDP growth. The approach appears promising, with models correctly forecasting accelerations or decelerations of economic activity in around 90% of cases. 

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