Having proven resilient in the face of global challenges last year, the European economic recovery is expected to continue this year and next. Moreover, for the first time in almost a decade, the economies of all EU Member States are expected to grow throughout the entire forecast period (2016, 2017 and 2018). However, the outlook is surrounded by higher-than-usual uncertainty. In its Winter Forecast released on 13 February, the European Commission expects euro area GDP growth of 1.6% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. This is slightly revised up from the Autumn Forecast (2017: 1.5%, 2018: 1.7%) on the back of better-than-expected performance in the second half of 2016 and a robust start in 2017. GDP growth in the EU as a whole should follow a similar pattern and is forecast at 1.8% this year and next (Autumn Forecast: 2017: 1.6%, 2018: 1.8%). Risks surrounding these projections are exceptionally large and although both upside and downside risks have increased, the overall balance remains tilted to the downside.