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Real Economy episode examines Europe’s prospects through the lens of economic forecasts

Amidst uncertainty such as mixed messages from the new US administration, a spate of elections across Europe, and worries about Brexit and China, the latest episode of Real Economy analyses the road ahead for Europe’s economy.

date:  16/03/2017

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Amidst uncertainty such as mixed messages from the new US administration, a spate of elections across Europe, and worries about Brexit and China, the latest episode of Real Economy analyses the road ahead for Europe’s economy. For the first time in almost a decade, across the EU, every country – including those hardest hit by the recession – is expected to grow this year and the next. In addition, a recent rise in the price of oil has helped push inflation closer to the level that the European Central Bank targets to ensure price stability. Euro area inflation is now forecast to increase to 1.7% this year, while in the EU it is forecast to rise to 1.8%. The recovery is still slow and incomplete, however. Of the euro area’s four major economies, for example, only Germany’s outlook has been upgraded. Nonetheless, increased production by companies such as Maviflex, a manufacturer of industrial doors near Lyon, foreshadows a pick-up across the private sector and especially in manufacturing. Companies like Maviflex face a dilemma, however: “The need to invest” versus “an uncertain political environment”. According to Lucrezia Reichlin, an economist and professor at the London Business School, “once the political uncertainty will be cleared…more optimism will prevail.”